Estimación del riesgo sísmico en puerto príncipe (Haití)

Tras el devastador terremoto del 12 de enero de 2010 en Puerto Príncipe, Haití, las autoridades locales, numerosas ONGs y organismos nacionales e internacionales están trabajando en el desarrollo de estrategias para minimizar el elevado riesgo sísmico existente en el país. Para ello es necesario, en primer lugar, estimar dicho riesgo asociado a eventuales terremotos futuros que puedan producirse, evaluando el grado de pérdidas que podrían generar, para dimensionar la catástrofe y actuar en consecuencia, tanto en lo referente a medidas preventivas como a adopción de planes de emergencia. En ese sentido, este Trabajo Fin de Master aporta un análisis detallado del riesgo sísmico asociado a un futuro terremoto que podría producirse con probabilidad razonable, causando importantes daños en Puerto Príncipe. Se propone para ello una metodología de cálculo del riesgo adaptada a los condicionantes de la zona, con modelos calibrados empleando datos del sismo de 2010. Se ha desarrollado en el marco del proyecto de cooperación Sismo-Haití, financiado por la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, que comenzó diez meses después del terremoto de 2010 como respuesta a una petición de ayuda del gobierno haitiano. El cálculo del riesgo requiere la consideración de dos inputs: la amenaza sísmica o movimiento esperado por el escenario definido (sismo de cierta magnitud y localización) y los elementos expuestos a esta amenaza (una clasificación del parque inmobiliario en diferentes tipologías constructivas, así como su vulnerabilidad). La vulnerabilidad de estas tipologías se describe por medio de funciones de daño: espectros de capacidad, que representan su comportamiento ante las fuerzas horizontales motivadas por los sismos, y curvas de fragilidad, que representan la probabilidad de que las estructuras sufran daños al alcanzar el máximo desplazamiento horizontal entre plantas debido a la mencionada fuerza horizontal. La metodología que se propone especifica determinadas pautas y criterios para estimar el movimiento, asignar la vulnerabilidad y evaluar el daño, cubriendo los tres estados del proceso. Por una parte, se consideran diferentes modelos de movimiento fuerte incluyendo el efecto local, y se identifican los que mejor ajustan a las observaciones de 2010. Por otra se clasifica el parque inmobiliario en diferentes tipologías constructivas, en base a la información extraída en una campaña de campo y utilizando además una base de datos aportada por el Ministerio de Obras Públicas de Haití. Ésta contiene información relevante de todos los edificios de la ciudad, resultando un total de 6 tipologías. Finalmente, para la estimación del daño se aplica el método capacidad-demanda implementado en el programa SELENA (Molina et al., 2010). En primer lugar, utilizado los datos de daño del terremoto de 2010, se ha calibrado el modelo propuesto de cálculo de riesgo sísmico: cuatro modelos de movimiento fuerte, tres modelos de tipo de suelo y un conjunto de funciones de daño. Finalmente, con el modelo calibrado, se ha simulado un escenario sísmico determinista correspondiente a un posible terremoto con epicentro próximo a Puerto Príncipe. Los resultados muestran que los daños estructurales serán considerables y podrán llevar a pérdidas económicas y humanas que causen un gran impacto en el país, lo que pone de manifiesto la alta vulnerabilidad estructural existente. Este resultado será facilitado a las autoridades locales, constituyendo una base sólida para toma de decisiones y adopción de políticas de prevención y mitigación del riesgo. Se recomienda dirigir esfuerzos hacia la reducción de la vulnerabilidad estructural - mediante refuerzo de edificios vulnerables y adopción de una normativa sismorresistente- y hacia el desarrollo de planes de emergencia. Abstract After the devastating 12 January 2010 earthquake that hit the city of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, strategies to minimize the high seismic risk are being developed by local authorities, NGOs, and national and international institutions. Two important tasks to reach this objective are, on the one hand, the evaluation of the seismic risk associated to possible future earthquakes in order to know the dimensions of the catastrophe; on the other hand, the design of preventive measures and emergency plans to minimize the consequences of such events. In this sense, this Master Thesis provides a detailed estimation of the damage that a possible future earthquake will cause in Port-au-Prince. A methodology to calculate the seismic risk is proposed, adapted to the study area conditions. This methodology has been calibrated using data from the 2010 earthquake. It has been conducted in the frame of the Sismo-Haiti cooperative project, supported by the Technical University of Madrid, which started ten months after the 2010 earthquake as an answer to an aid call of the Haitian government. The seismic risk calculation requires two inputs: the seismic hazard (expected ground motion due to a scenario earthquake given by magnitude and location) and the elements exposed to the hazard (classification of the building stock into building typologies, as well as their vulnerability). This vulnerability is described through the damage functions: capacity curves, which represent the structure performance against the horizontal forces caused by the seisms; and fragility curves, which represent the probability of damage as the structure reaches the maximum spectral displacement due to the horizontal force. The proposed methodology specifies certain guidelines and criteria to estimate the ground motion, assign the vulnerability, and evaluate the damage, covering the whole process. Firstly, different ground motion prediction equations including the local effect are considered, and the ones that have the best correlation with the observations of the 2010 earthquake, are identified. Secondly, the classification of building typologies is made by using the information collected during a field campaign, as well as a data base provided by the Ministry of Public Works of Haiti. This data base contains relevant information about all the buildings in the city, leading to a total of 6 different typologies. Finally, the damage is estimated using the capacity-spectrum method as implemented in the software SELENA (Molina et al., 2010). Data about the damage caused by the 2010 earthquake have been used to calibrate the proposed calculation model: different choices of ground motion relationships, soil models, and damage functions. Then, with the calibrated model, a deterministic scenario corresponding to an epicenter close to Port-au-Prince has been simulated. The results show high structural damage, and therefore, they point out the high structural vulnerability in the city. Besides, the economic and human losses associated to the damage would cause a great impact in the country. This result will be provided to the Haitian Government, constituting a scientific base for decision making and for the adoption of measures to prevent and mitigate the seismic risk. It is highly recommended to drive efforts towards the quality control of the new buildings -through reinforcement and construction according to a seismic code- and the development of emergency planning

Sismo-haití:proyecto de cooperación para el cálculo de la peligrosidad y el riesgo sísmico en Haití

El terremoto ocurrido el 12 de enero de 2010 en Haití devastó la ciudad de Puerto Príncipe, interrumpiendo la actividad social y económica. El proyecto Sismo-Haití surgió como respuesta a la solicitud de ayuda del país ante esta catástrofe y está siendo llevado a cabo por el grupo de investigación en Ingeniería Sísmica de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, especialistas en geología y sismología de las universidades Complutense de Madrid, Almería y Alicante, el Consejo Superior de Iinvestigaciones Científicas y técnicos locales. En el marco del citado proyecto se realizará un estudio de la amenaza sísmica, con la consiguiente obtención de mapas de aceleraciones que sirvan de base para una primera normativa sismorresistente en el país. Asimismo, se llevará a cabo un estudio de riesgo sísmico en alguna población piloto, incluyendo estudios de microzonación y vulnerabilidad sísmica, así como la estimación de daños y pérdidas humanas ante posibles sismos futuros, cuyos resultados irán dirigidos al diseño de planes de emergencia. En este trabajo se presentan los primeros avances del proyecto. Uno de los objetivos más importantes del proyecto Sismo-Haití es la formación de técnicos en el país a través de la transmisión de conocimientos y experiencia que el grupo de trabajo tiene en materia de peligrosidad y riesgo sísmico, así como en todo lo relacionado con la gestión de la emergencia

Seismic Risk Scenarios in Puerto Principe (Haiti). A Tool for Reconstruction and Emergency Planning

The 12 January 2010, an earthquake hit the city of Port-au-Prince, capital of Haiti. The earthquake reached a magnitude Mw 7.0 and the epicenter was located near the town of Léogâne, approximately 25 km west of the capital. The earthquake occurred in the boundary region separating the Caribbean plate and the North American plate. This plate boundary is dominated by left-lateral strike slip motion and compression, and accommodates about 20 mm/y slip, with the Caribbean plate moving eastward with respect to the North American plate (DeMets et al., 2000). Initially the location and focal mechanism of the earthquake seemed to involve straightforward accommodation of oblique relative motion between the Caribbean and North American plates along the Enriquillo-Plantain Garden fault system (EPGFZ), however Hayes et al., (2010) combined seismological observations, geologic field data and space geodetic measurements to show that, instead, the rupture process involved slip on multiple faults. Besides, the authors showed that remaining shallow shear strain will be released in future surface-rupturing earthquakes on the EPGFZ. In December 2010, a Spanish cooperation project financed by the Politechnical University of Madrid started with a clear objective: Evaluation of seismic hazard and risk in Haiti and its application to the seismic design, urban planning, emergency and resource management. One of the tasks of the project was devoted to vulnerability assessment of the current building stock and the estimation of seismic risk scenarios. The study was carried out by following the capacity spectrum method as implemented in the software SELENA (Molina et al., 2010). The method requires a detailed classification of the building stock in predominant building typologies (according to the materials in the structure and walls, number of stories and age of construction) and the use of the building (residential, commercial, etc.). Later, the knowledge of the soil characteristics of the city and the simulation of a scenario earthquake will provide the seismic risk scenarios (damaged buildings). The initial results of the study show that one of the highest sources of uncertainties comes from the difficulty of achieving a precise building typologies classification due to the craft construction without any regulations. Also it is observed that although the occurrence of big earthquakes usually helps to decrease the vulnerability of the cities due to the collapse of low quality buildings and the reconstruction of seismically designed buildings, in the case of Port-au-Prince the seismic risk in most of the districts remains high, showing very vulnerable areas. Therefore the local authorities have to drive their efforts towards the quality control of the new buildings, the reinforcement of the existing building stock, the establishment of seismic normatives and the development of emergency planning also through the education of the population

The thin line between modes 2 and 3 in the Campo de Gibraltar (southern Iberian Peninsula, Spain). A historic proposal

Este trabajo presenta como objetivo central el estudio geológico y geomorfológico de la terraza marina donde se localizan los yacimientos, el análisis de las materias primas seleccionadas para la fabricación de las herramientas de trabajo por las sociedades del paleolítico (modo 2) y un análisis tecnológico de las industrias localizadas con el objeto de comprender las características propias relacionadas con los procesos técnicos de fabricación de las herramientas de trabajo. Finalmente, se procederá a la realización de una contextualización histórica, donde valoraremos la continuidad del modo 2 al modo 3, indicando sus semejanzas y sus diferencias en el ámbito del sur peninsular durante OIS5.The aim of this article is the geological and geomorphological study of the marine terrace where the sites are located, the mineral raw material selected for tool manufacturing by the societies of the Paleolithic periods (modo 2) and a technological analysis of the industries located there in order to understand the characteristics related to the technical processes of tool manufacturing. Finally, an historical contextualization will be carried out, where the continuity of the modo 2 to the modo 3 will be assessed, highlighting its similarities and differences in the area of the peninsular south during OIS5

Comparative analysis between elastic response spectra of different European Seismic Codes.

A comparative analysis between the elastic response spectra defined by different European seismic codes is presented in this paper. The following normatives are analyzed: Spanish building code NCSE-02, Eurocode 8 (EC-8), Italian building code NTC-08 and National Annex to EC-8 for Portugal and France. The study is carried out in the frame of a project aimed at defining the Spanish National Annex to EC-8, and the results provide us with some criteria for establishing the spectral shapes and the soil coefficients to be used in the Spanish National Annex to EC-8 as well as in a new revision of the NCSE-0

Structure 1-2 in the necropolis of Los Algarbes (Tarifa, Cadiz). Its interpretacion on the basis of new investigations

Las investigaciones que estamos desarrollando sobre la necrópolis de Los Algarbes (Tarifa, Cádiz), nos están proporcionando un conocimiento preciso sobre la tipología de los sistemas constructivos, los rituales empleados,... En esta línea, una de las estructuras funerarias más significativas de la necrópolis por sus características constructivas se corresponde con la Estructura 1-2, relacionada con una “sepultura de construcción mixta”, que bien recuerdan a las construcciones dolménicas. Pero que en este caso, el corredor está excavado en la roca y la cubierta está formada por ortostatos. A raíz de nuestras recientes investigaciones, realizamos una descripción más precisa sobre el sistema constructivo empleado en la Estructura 1-2, la procedencia de las materias primas empleadas y su contextualización dentro de la necrópolis.Research we are doing on the Necropolis de los Algarbes (Tarifa,Cadiz), is providing us an accurate Knowledge on the typology of construction systems, the funerary rituals,... In this line, one of the most significant funerary structures in the necropolis for its constructive characteristics corresponds to 1-2 Structure, related to a “burial composite construction”, that is reminiscent to the dolmen construction. However, in this case, the corridor is excavated in the rock and cover consists of megaliths. As a result of our recent research, we carry out a more precise description about the construction system used in the 1-2 Structure, the origin of the raw materials and its contextualization within the necropolis

SISMO-HAÏTI: Projet de coopération pour le calcul de l´aléa et le risque sismique en Haïti

La presentación contiene un resumen de los resultados del proyecto SISMO-HAITI. Se trata de un proyecto de cooperación financiado por la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), y llevado a cabo por un grupo de Universidades españolas, La Universidad de Kanagawa (Japón),los institutos sismológicos de República Dominicana y Puerto Rico y el Observatorio Nacional de Medioambiente y Vulnerabilidad de Haití. Fue coordinado por el Grupo de Investigación en Ingeniería Sísmica de la E.T.S.I. Topografía, Geodesia y Cartografía de la UPM. El objetivo del proyecto fue estimar la peligrosidad sísmica de la Isla de La Española de cara a la implementación del primer código sismorresistente de Haití, y la evaluación del riesgo sísmico en Puerto Príncipe (capital de Haití) como base para elaborar los planes de emergencias ante este riesgo

Seismic vulnerability and damage assessment in Navarre (NE Spain)

A regional characterization of the seismic vulnerability of the building stock of Navarre (Northern Spain) and the expected damage associated with expected ground shaking for a 475-year return period is presented. Besides the initial planning meetings, the work consists on three phases: The first is the field work conducted along different routes crossing the entire region, including main cities. Two geographical areas with distinctive construction patterns and characteristic typologies were recognised and delimited, together with a transition zone. Several buildings were sampled and documented, and empirical vulnerability distributions were obtained. The second phase relates to cadastral data exploitation and processing, selection of parcels as working units and selection of municipalities and districts as representation units. Based on the age of construction and the associated seismic code requirements; the number of stories; and the empirical distributions derived in the earlier stage, statistical distributions of building vulnerability classes were composed following three vulnerability classifications. These include the vulnerability classification of the European Macroseismic Scale, the vulnerability index approach and the Hazus classification. This phase was as important as time-consuming, and set the basis for the proper development of the subsequent analyses. The third phase consisted on calculating the expected damage with empirical as well as with analytical methods, using as seismic input an updated hazard-consistent seismic intensity map of the region. Vulnerability and damage results derived with the three methods used are compared and analysed, and their suitability discussed. Results of this work will be used in the regional seismic risk plan of Navarre (RISNA Project

Miltefosine and nifuratel combination: a promising therapy for the treatment of leishmania donovani visceral leishmaniasis

[EN] Visceral leishmaniasis is a neglected vector-borne tropical disease caused by Leishmania donovani and Leishmania infantum that is endemic not only in East African countries, but also in Asia, regions of South America and the Mediterranean Basin. For the pharmacological control of this disease, there is a limited number of old and, in general, poorly adherent drugs, with a multitude of adverse effects and low oral bioavailability, which favor the emergence of resistant pathogens. Pentavalent antimonials are the first-line drugs, but due to their misuse, resistant Leishmania strains have emerged worldwide. Although these drugs have saved many lives, it is recommended to reduce their use as much as possible and replace them with novel and more friendly drugs. From a commercial collection of anti-infective drugs, we have recently identified nifuratel-a nitrofurantoin used against vaginal infections-as a promising repurposing drug against a mouse model of visceral leishmaniasis. In the present work, we have tested combinations of miltefosine-the only oral drug currently used against leishmaniasis-with nifuratel in different proportions, both in axenic amastigotes from bone marrow and in intracellular amastigotes from infected Balb/c mouse spleen macrophages, finding a potent synergy in both cases. In vivo evaluation of oral miltefosine/nifuratel combinations using a bioimaging platform has revealed the potential of these combinations for the treatment of this disease.SIThis research was partially funded by MINECO; SAF2017-83575-R and PID 2020-119031RB-100 to R.M.R. E.M.-F. is contracted with EU PRIMA (PCI2022-132925); G.G. is recipient of FPI scholarship (PRE 2021 096909) supported by AE

Flooding through the lens of mobile phone activity

Natural disasters affect hundreds of millions of people worldwide every year. Emergency response efforts depend upon the availability of timely information, such as information concerning the movements of affected populations. The analysis of aggregated and anonymized Call Detail Records (CDR) captured from the mobile phone infrastructure provides new possibilities to characterize human behavior during critical events. In this work, we investigate the viability of using CDR data combined with other sources of information to characterize the floods that occurred in Tabasco, Mexico in 2009. An impact map has been reconstructed using Landsat-7 images to identify the floods. Within this frame, the underlying communication activity signals in the CDR data have been analyzed and compared against rainfall levels extracted from data of the NASA-TRMM project. The variations in the number of active phones connected to each cell tower reveal abnormal activity patterns in the most affected locations during and after the floods that could be used as signatures of the floods - both in terms of infrastructure impact assessment and population information awareness. The representativeness of the analysis has been assessed using census data and civil protection records. While a more extensive validation is required, these early results suggest high potential in using cell tower activity information to improve early warning and emergency management mechanisms.Comment: Submitted to IEEE Global Humanitarian Technologies Conference (GHTC) 201