Testing machine learning algorithms for the prediction of depositional fluxes of the radionuclides 7Be, 210Pb and 40K

The monthly depositional fluxes of 7Be, 210Pb and 40K were measured at Malaga, (Southern Spain) from 2005 to 2018. In this work, the depositional fluxes of these radionuclides are investigated and their relations with several atmospheric variables have been studied by applying two popular machine learning methods: Random Forest and Neural Network algorithms. We extensively test different configurations of these algorithms and demonstrate their predictive ability for reproducing depositional fluxes. The models derived with Neural Networks achieve slightly better results, in average, although similar, having into account the uncertainties. The mean Pearson-R coefficients, evaluated with a k-fold cross-validation method, are around 0.85 for the three radionuclides using Neural Network models, while they go down to 0.83, 0.79 and 0.8 for 7Be, 210Pb and 40K, respectively, for the Random Forest models. Additionally, applying the Recursive Feature Elimination technique we determine the variables more correlated with the depositional fluxes of these radionuclides, which elucidates the main dependences of their temporal variability.This research was funded by Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (Spain). Funding for open access charge: Universidad de Málaga / CBU

Markov chain Monte Carlo analyses of the flux ratios of B, Be and Li with the DRAGON2 code

Recent cosmic-ray measurements are challenging our models of propagation in the Galaxy. A good characterization of the secondary cosmic rays (B, Be, Li and sub-iron species) is crucial to constrain these models and exploit the precision of modern CR experiments. In this work, a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis has been implemented to fit the experimental flux ratios between B, Be and Li and their flux ratios to the primary nuclei C and O. We have fitted the data using two different parametrizations for the spallation cross sections. The uncertainties in the evaluation of the spectra of these secondary cosmic rays, due to spallation cross sections, have been considered by introducing scale factors as nuisance parameters. We have also tested two different formulations for the diffusion coefficient, which differ in the origin of the high energy hardening of cosmic rays. Additionally, two different approaches are used to scale the cross sections, one based on a combined analysis of all the species ("combined" analysis) and the other reproducing the high energy spectra of the secondary-to-secondary flux ratios of Be/B, Li/B, Li/Be ("scaled" analysis). This allows us to make a better comparison between the propagation parameters inferred from the cross sections parametrizations tested in this work. This novel analysis has been successfully implemented using the numerical code DRAGON2 to reproduce the cosmic-ray nuclei data up to $Z=14$ from the AMS-02 experiment. It is found that the ratios of Li favor a harder spectral index of the diffusion coefficient, but compatible with the other ratios inside the observed $2\sigma$ uncertainties. In addition, it is shown that, including these scale factors, the secondary-to-primary flux ratios can be simultaneously reproduced.Comment: 27 pages, 10 figures, 9 table

FLUKA cross sections for cosmic-ray interactions with the DRAGON2 code

Secondary particles produced in spallation reactions of cosmic rays with the interstellar gas provide valuable information that allow us to investigate the injection and transport of charged particles in the Galaxy. A good understanding of the cross sections of production of these particles is crucial to correctly interpret our models, although the existing experimental data is very scarce and uncertain. We have developed a new set of cross sections, both inelastic and inclusive, computed with the FLUKA Monte Carlo nuclear code and tested its compatibility with CR data. Inelastic and inclusive cross sections have been compared to the most up-to-date data and parameterisations finding a general good agreement. Then, these cross sections have been implemented in the DRAGON2 code to characterize the spectra of CR nuclei up to Z = 26 and the secondary-to-primary ratios of B, Be and Li. Interestingly, we find that the FLUKA cross sections allow us to predict an energy-dependence of the B, Be and Li flux ratios which is compatible with AMS-02 data and to reproduce simultaneously these flux ratios with a scaling lower than 20%. Finally, we implement the cross sections of production of gamma rays, calculated with FLUKA, in the Gammasky code and compute diffuse gamma-ray sky maps and the local HI emissivity spectrum, finding a very good agreement with Fermi Large Area Telescope data

FLUKA cross sections for cosmic-ray interactions with the DRAGON2 code

Secondary particles produced in spallation reactions of cosmic rays with the interstellar gas provide valuable information that allow us to investigate the injection and transport of charged particles in the Galaxy. A good understanding of the cross sections of production of these particles is crucial to correctly interpret our models, although the existing experimental data is very scarce and uncertain. We have developed a new set of cross sections, both inelastic and inclusive, computed with the FLUKA Monte Carlo nuclear code and tested its compatibility with CR data. Inelastic and inclusive cross sections have been compared to the most up-to-date data and parameterisations finding a general good agreement. Then, these cross sections have been implemented in the DRAGON2 code to characterize the spectra of CR nuclei up to Z = 26 and the secondary-to-primary ratios of B, Be and Li. Interestingly, we find that the FLUKA cross sections allow us to predict an energy-dependence of the B, Be and Li flux ratios which is compatible with AMS-02 data and to reproduce simultaneously these flux ratios with a scaling lower than 20%. Finally, we implement the cross sections of production of gamma rays, calculated with FLUKA, in the Gammasky code and compute diffuse gamma-ray sky maps and the local HI emissivity spectrum, finding a very good agreement with Fermi Large Area Telescope data

Cosmic-ray interactions with the Sun

The solar disk is a bright gamma-ray source in the sky. The interactions of cosmic rays with the solar atmosphere produce secondary particles which can reach the Earth. In this work we present a comprehensive calculation of the yields of secondary particles such as gamma-rays, electrons, positrons, neutrons and neutrinos, performed with the FLUKA code. We also estimate the intensity at the Sun and the fluxes at the Earth of these secondary particles by folding their yields with the intensities of cosmic rays impinging on the solar surface. The results are sensitive to the assumptions on the magnetic field near the Sun and to the cosmic-ray transport in the magnetic field in the inner solar system

Fermi and Swift Observations of GRB 190114C: Tracing the Evolution of High-energy Emission from Prompt to Afterglow

We report on the observations of gamma-ray burst (GRB) 190114C by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. The prompt gamma-ray emission was detected by the Fermi GRB Monitor (GBM), the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), and the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) and the long-lived afterglow emission was subsequently observed by the GBM, LAT, Swift X-ray Telescope (XRT), and Swift UV Optical Telescope. The early-time observations reveal multiple emission components that evolve independently, with a delayed power-law component that exhibits significant spectral attenuation above 40 MeV in the first few seconds of the burst. This power-law component transitions to a harder spectrum that is consistent with the afterglow emission observed by the XRT at later times. This afterglow component is clearly identifiable in the GBM and BAT light curves as a slowly fading emission component on which the rest of the prompt emission is superimposed. As a result, we are able to observe the transition from internal-shock- to external-shock-dominated emission. We find that the temporal and spectral evolution of the broadband afterglow emission can be well modeled as synchrotron emission from a forward shock propagating into a wind-like circumstellar environment. We estimate the initial bulk Lorentz factor using the observed high-energy spectral cutoff. Considering the onset of the afterglow component, we constrain the deceleration radius at which this forward shock begins to radiate in order to estimate the maximum synchrotron energy as a function of time. We find that even in the LAT energy range, there exist high-energy photons that are in tension with the theoretical maximum energy that can be achieved through synchrotron emission from a shock. These violations of the maximum synchrotron energy are further compounded by the detection of very high-energy (VHE) emission above 300 GeV by MAGIC concurrent with our observations. We conclude that the observations of VHE photons from GRB 190114C necessitates either an additional emission mechanism at very high energies that is hidden in the synchrotron component in the LAT energy range, an acceleration mechanism that imparts energy to the particles at a rate that is faster than the electron synchrotron energy-loss rate, or revisions of the fundamental assumptions used in estimating the maximum photon energy attainable through the synchrotron process

Unresolved Gamma-Ray Sky through its Angular Power Spectrum

The gamma-ray sky has been observed with unprecedented accuracy in the last decade by the Fermi -large area telescope (LAT), allowing us to resolve and understand the high-energy Universe. The nature of the remaining unresolved emission [unresolved gamma-ray background (UGRB)] below the LAT source detection threshold can be uncovered by characterizing the amplitude and angular scale of the UGRB fluctuation field. This Letter presents a measurement of the UGRB autocorrelation angular power spectrum based on eight years of Fermi-LAT Pass 8 data products. The analysis is designed to be robust against contamination from resolved sources and noise systematics. The sensitivity to subthreshold sources is greatly enhanced with respect to previous measurements. We find evidence (with ∼3.7σ significance) that the scenario in which two classes of sources contribute to the UGRB signal is favored over a single class. A double power law with exponential cutoff can explain the anisotropy energy spectrum well, with photon indices of the two populations being 2.55±0.23 and 1.86±0.15

High-energy emission from a magnetar giant flare in the Sculptor galaxy

Magnetars are the most highly magnetized neutron stars in the cosmos (with magnetic field 1013–1015 G). Giant flares from magnetars are rare, short-duration (about 0.1 s) bursts of hard X-rays and soft γ rays1,2. Owing to the limited sensitivity and energy coverage of previous telescopes, no magnetar giant flare has been detected at gigaelectronvolt (GeV) energies. Here, we report the discovery of GeV emission from a magnetar giant flare on 15 April 2020 (refs. 3,4 and A. J. Castro-Tirado et al., manuscript in preparation). The Large Area Telescope (LAT) on board the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope detected GeV γ rays from 19 s until 284 s after the initial detection of a signal in the megaelectronvolt (MeV) band. Our analysis shows that these γ rays are spatially associated with the nearby (3.5 megaparsecs) Sculptor galaxy and are unlikely to originate from a cosmological γ-ray burst. Thus, we infer that the γ rays originated with the magnetar giant flare in Sculptor. We suggest that the GeV signal is generated by an ultra-relativistic outflow that first radiates the prompt MeV-band photons, and then deposits its energy far from the stellar magnetosphere. After a propagation delay, the outflow interacts with environmental gas and produces shock waves that accelerate electrons to very high energies; these electrons then emit GeV γ rays as optically thin synchrotron radiation. This observation implies that a relativistic outflow is associated with the magnetar giant flare, and suggests the possibility that magnetars can power some short γ-ray bursts

Patient, tumor, and healthcare factors associated with regional variability in lung cancer survival: a Spanish high‑resolution population‑based study

Purpose The third most frequently diagnosed cancer in Europe in 2018 was lung cancer; it is also the leading cause of cancer death in Europe. We studied patient and tumor characteristics, and patterns of healthcare provision explaining regional variability in lung cancer survival in southern Spain. Methods A population-based cohort study included all 1196 incident first invasive primary lung cancer (C33–C34 according to ICD-10) cases diagnosed between 2010 and 2011 with follow-up until April 2015. Data were drawn from local population-based cancer registries and patients’ hospital medical records from all public and private hospitals from two regions in southern Spain. Results There was evidence of regional differences in lung cancer late diagnosis (58% stage IV in Granada vs. 65% in Huelva, p value < 0.001). Among patients with stage I, only 67% received surgery compared with 0.6% of patients with stage IV. Patients treated with a combination of radiotherapy, chemotherapy, and surgery had a 2-year mortality risk reduction of 94% compared with patients who did not receive any treatment (excess mortality risk 0.06; 95% CI 0.02–0.16). Geographical differences in survival were observed between the two regions: 35% vs. 26% at 1-year since diagnosis. Conclusions The observed geographic differences in survival between regions are due in part to the late cancer diagnosis which determines the use of less effective therapeutic options. Results from our study justify the need for promoting lung cancer early detection strategies and the harmonization of the best practice in lung cancer management and treatment.Maria Jose Sanchez Perez is supported by the Andalusian Department of Health: Research, Development, and Innovation Office project grant PI-0152/2017. Miguel Angel Luque-Fernandez is supported by the Spanish National Institute of Health, Carlos III Miguel Servet I Investigator Award (CP17/00206)