Towards a new evolutionary subsampling technique for heuristic optimisation of load disaggregators

In this paper we present some preliminary work towards the development of a new evolutionary subsampling technique for solving the non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) problem. The NILM problem concerns using predictive algorithms to analyse whole-house energy usage measurements, so that individual appliance energy usages can be disaggregated. The motivation is to educate home owners about their energy usage. However, by their very nature, the datasets used in this research are massively imbalanced in their target value distributions. Consequently standard machine learning techniques, which often rely on optimising for root mean squared error (RMSE), typically fail. We therefore propose the target-weighted RMSE (TW-RMSE) metric as an alternative fitness function for optimising load disaggregators, and show in a simple initial study in which random search is utilised that TW-RMSE is a metric that can be optimised, and therefore has the potential to be included in a larger evolutionary subsampling-based solution to this problem

Subgroup Analysis via Recursive Partitioning

Subgroup analysis is an integral part of comparative analysis where assessing the treatment effect on a response is of central interest. Its goal is to determine the heterogeneity of the treatment effect across subpopulations. In this paper, we adapt the idea of recursive partitioning and introduce an interaction tree (IT) procedure to conduct subgroup analysis. The IT procedure automatically facilitates a number of objectively defined subgroups, in some of which the treatment effect is found prominent while in others the treatment has a negligible or even negative effect. The standard CART (Breiman et al., 1984) methodology is inherited to construct the tree structure. Also, in order to extract factors that contribute to the heterogeneity of the treatment effect, variable importance measure is made available via random forests of the interaction trees. Both simulated experiments and analysis of census wage data are presented for illustration.http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000270824200001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=8e1609b174ce4e31116a60747a720701Automation & Control SystemsComputer Science, Artificial IntelligenceSCI(E)EI38ARTICLE141-1581

A Framework for Recommendation of Highly Popular News Lacking Social Feedback

Social media is rapidly becoming the main source of news consumption for users, raising significant challenges to news aggregation and recommendation tasks. One of these challenges concerns the recommendation of very recent news. To tackle this problem, approaches to the prediction of news popularity have been proposed. In this paper, we study the task of predicting news popularity upon their publication, when social feedback is unavailable or scarce, and to use such predictions to produce news rankings. Unlike previous work, we focus on accurately predicting highly popular news. Such cases are rare, causing known issues for standard prediction models and evaluation metrics. To overcome such issues we propose the use of resampling strategies to bias learners towards these rare cases of highly popular news, and a utility-based framework for evaluating their performance. An experimental evaluation is performed using real-world data to test our proposal in distinct scenarios. Results show that our proposed approaches improve the ability of predicting and recommending highly popular news upon publication, in comparison to previous work