The insecurity dilemma and the Sino-Tibetan conflict

Noting the inadequacies of existing IR theories to explain the security policies of states in the global south and the frequent intra-state conflicts there, this research demonstrates the analytical capacity of the insecurity dilemma as an alternative framework. The research develops the insecurity dilemma first and then applies it on the Chinese-Tibetan conflict. Over sixty years of violence and dialogue has brought the Chinese and the Tibetans no closer to a resolution of their conflict. The insecurity dilemma provides a nuanced understanding of the underlying reasons for this protracted conflict. This research argues that, conscious of its weakness as a state, which has implications for state, regime and ‘national’ security, China has pursued state-building through its policies on religion, language, education and economy in Tibet. Beijing has also denied the existence of a ‘Tibet Issue’ and rejected a number of Tibetan proposals for autonomy out of fears that they threaten their state-building project in Tibet. Conversely, Tibetan identity insecurity, generated by the Chinese policies, migration and cultural influences inside Tibet, explains both the Dalai Lama’s unpopular decision to give up his erstwhile aspiration for Tibetan independence as well as his steadfast demands for autonomy and unification of all Tibetans under one administration. Identity insecurity also drives the multi-faceted Tibetan resistance both inside Tibet and in the diaspora. Although the intentions of both Beijing and the Tibetans are to increase their respective securities identified above, the outcome is greater insecurity for both, plunging them into dilemmatic cycles of state-building and hardening of policies on the Chinese side and strengthening of identity and resistance on the Tibetan side. This study gives play to a multiplicity of actors, objectives and strategies on both sides and examines the feed-back effect that exists between the Sino-Tibetan conflict and the regional and global political strategic and ideological competitions

Insecurity dilemma and the Tibetan uprising in 2008

In March 2008, Tibet erupted in the biggest challenge to Chinese rule since 1959. While Beijing and Dharamsala engaged in their familiar battle of representations, pundits speculated on the causes of the uprising, ranging from conspiracy theories to informed policy analysis. Applying the framework of the insecurity dilemma, this article argues that Tibetan identity insecurity on account of the post-1989 hard-line Chinese policies was the chief cause of the uprising. Largely peaceful protests and occasionally violent riots in Tibet have been integral to Tibetan efforts to mitigate their societal insecurities provoked by Chinese migration, 'assimilationist' policies and 'cultural imperialism'. However, Tibetan protests and riots heighten Chinese insecurities and harden Beijing's policies both inside Tibet and towards the Dalai Lama. This paper reveals the dynamic cycle of hard-line Chinese policies provoking Tibetan uprisings; the resulting hardening in Chinese policies feeds back into Tibetan insecurities and protests. The 2008 uprising was the most recent cycle in the long-running saga of the Sino-Tibetan insecurity dilemma. The article warns that unless the Tibetans and the Chinese find a way to break out of the insecurity dilemma, Tibet could explode into another frenzy of violence and counter-violence in the near future