The Zero Interest Rate Policy

This paper derives a generalized optimal interest rate rule that is optimal even under a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates in an otherwise basic New Keynesian model with inflation inertia. Using this optimal rule, we investigate optimal entrance and exit strategies of the zero interest rate policy (ZIP) under the realistic model with inflation inertia and a variety of shocks. The simulation results reveal that the shapes of the entrance and exit strategies in a ZIP change considerably according to the forward- or backward-lookingness of the economy and the size of the shocks. In particular, for large shocks that result in long ZIP periods, the time to the start (end) of the ZIP period is earlier (later) in an economy with inflation inertia than in a purely forward-looking economy. However, these outcomes are surprisingly converse to small shocks that result in short ZIP periods.Zero Interest Rate Policy, Optimal Interest Rate Rule

Who takes the ECB's targeted funding?

This paper investigates motives of banks to borrow funds from the ECB through its first two series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) allotted between September 2014 and March 2017. We quantify that the top-three parameters that determine banks' take-up decisions are the price of the operation, the amount of eligible collateral of the bank, and the composition of that collateral. In particular, the opportunity for banks to transform their less liquid assets partly into liquid central bank reserves by pledging these assets as collateral with the central bank is a strong motive for take-up and suggests that accepting a broad set of collateral was important for the monetary easing provided by TLTROs. In addition, we find that the conditions attached to TLTRO participation and take-up played an important role in creating broad-based participation across banks of different financial strength and size

Eliminating a deflationary trap through superinertial interest rate rules

This paper demonstrates that, even in the presence of a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates, central banks can eliminate a deflationary trap by the conduct of interest rate rules that have superinertia.

Estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Japan

We estimate a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the Japanese economy following Christiano et al. [Christiano, L., Eichenbaum, M., Evans, C., 2005. Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy. J. Polit. Economy 113 (1), 1-45]. By using actual capital utilization data and modifying the formulation of utilization following Greenwood et al. [Greenwood, J., Hercowitz, Z., Huffmann, G.W., 1988. Investment, capacity utilization, and the real business cycle. Amer. Econ. Rev. 78 (3), 402-417], this paper succeeds in incorporating a negative correlation between capital utilization and rental costs to explain actual capital utilization rates. We find that an investment adjustment cost shock is as important as a productivity shock that affects business cycles. We also find hump-shaped and persistent behavior of inflation rates in response to a monetary policy shock, which Christiano et al. cast doubt upon. J. Japanese Int. Economies 22 (4) (2008) 476-502.DSGE model Monetary policy Capital utilization Japan

Liquidity Trap and Optimal Monetary Policy Revisited

This paper investigates history dependent easing known as a conventional wis- dom of optimal monetary policy in a liquidity trap. We show that, in an economy where the rate of in ation exhibits intrinsic persistence, monetary tightening is earlier as in ation becomes more persistent. This property is referred as early tightening and in the case of a higher degree of in ation persistence, a central bank implements front-loaded tightening so that it terminates the zero interest rate policy even before the natural rate of interest turns positive. As a prominent feature in a liquidity trap, a forward guidance of smoothing the change in in ation rates contributes to an early termination of the zero interest rate policy.2012～2016年度科学研究費補助金[基盤研究(S)]「長期デフレの解明」(研究代表者 東京大学経済学研究科・渡辺努, 課題番号：24223003