Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Efficacy of Rikkunshito for Functional Heartburn: A Prospective Pilot Study

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Stimulated saliva secretion is reduced in proton pump inhibitor-resistant severe reflux esophagitis patients

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Factors influencing subclinical atherosclerosis in patients with biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

Although the presence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is known to be related to subclinical atherosclerosis, the relationship between the severity of NAFLD and subclinical atherosclerosis is not clear. This study aimed to clarify the factors related to subclinical arteriosclerosis, including the histopathological severity of the disease and PNPLA3 gene polymorphisms, in NAFLD patients. We measured brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) as an index of arterial stiffness in 153 biopsy-proven NAFLD patients. The baPWV values were significantly higher in the advanced fibrosis group than in the less advanced group (median, 1679 cm/s vs 1489 cm/s; p = 5.49×10-4). Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that older age (≥55 years) (p = 8.57×10-3; OR = 3.03), hypertension (p = 1.05×10-3; OR = 3.46), and advanced fibrosis (p = 9.22×10-3; OR = 2.94) were independently linked to baPWV ≥1600 cm/s. NAFLD patients were categorized into low-risk group (number of risk factors = 0), intermediate-risk group (= 1), and high-risk group (≥2) based on their risk factors, including older age, hypertension, and biopsy-confirmed advanced fibrosis. The prevalence of baPWV ≥1600 cm/s was 7.1% (3/42) in the low-risk group, 30.8% (12/39) in the intermediate-risk group, and 63.9% (46/72) in the high-risk group. Non-invasive liver fibrosis markers and scores, including the FIB-4 index, NAFLD fibrosis score, hyaluronic acid, Wisteria floribunda agglutinin positive Mac-2-binding protein, and type IV collagen 7s, were feasible substitutes for invasive liver biopsy. Older age, hypertension, and advanced fibrosis are independently related to arterial stiffness, and a combination of these three factors may predict risk of arteriosclerosis in NAFLD patients

Sequential therapy from entecavir to tenofovir alafenamide versus continuous entecavir monotherapy for patients with chronic hepatitis B

Abstract Background and Aim Although tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), as well as entecavir (ETV), is widely used as first‐line treatment for patients with chronic hepatitis B, there are only a few studies comparing sequential therapy from ETV to TAF and continuous ETV monotherapy in patients with maintained virologic response to ETV. Methods In a retrospective multicenter study, we investigated the efficacy and safety of sequential therapy from ETV to TAF (ETV‐TAF group) and compared them with continuous ETV monotherapy (ETV group), using propensity score matching, in chronic hepatitis B patients. Results From 442 patients, we analyzed 142 patients from each group comprising 71 patients matched for several data, including age, HBV genotype, hepatitis B envelope antigen, cirrhosis, alanine aminotransferase, platelet count, prior ETV monotherapy period, and hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) change during prior ETV monotherapy. In the ETV‐TAF group, HBsAg levels significantly decreased from baseline to 48 weeks after switching to TAF (−0.02 log IU/mL, P = 0.038). HBcrAg levels also significantly decreased after switching to TAF (−0.1 log IU/mL, P = 0.004). However, there were no significant differences in the reduction of HBsAg and HBcrAg levels between the ETV‐TAF and ETV groups. There was no significant difference in the change of estimated glomerular filtration rate levels from baseline to 48 weeks between the two groups. Conclusions The present study indicated that the efficacy, especially of the HBsAg‐reducing action, and safety of sequential therapy from ETV to TAF were similar to those of continuous ETV monotherapy among chronic hepatitis B patients with maintained virologic response to ETV