Prospectus, April 4, 2001

https://spark.parkland.edu/prospectus_2001/1011/thumbnail.jp

Quality of life measurement in community-based aged care : understanding variation between clients and between care service providers

Background: Measuring person-centred outcomes and using this information to improve service delivery is a challenge for many care providers. We aimed to identify predictors of QoL among older adults receiving community-based aged care services and examine variation across different community care service outlets. Methods: A retrospective sample of 1141 Australians aged ≥60 years receiving community-based care services from a large service provider within 19 service outlets. Clients’ QoL was captured using the ICEpop CAPability Index. QoL scores and predictors of QoL (i.e. sociodemographic, social participation and service use) were extracted from clients’ electronic records and examined using multivariable regression. Funnel plots were used to examine variation in risk-adjusted QoL scores across service outlets. Results: Mean age was 81.5 years (SD = 8) and 75.5% were women. Clients had a mean QoL score of 0.81 (range 0– 1, SD = 0.15). After accounting for other factors, being older (p < 0.01), having lower-level care needs (p < 0.01), receiving services which met needs for assistance with activities of daily living (p < 0.01), and having higher levels of social participation (p < 0.001) were associated with higher QoL scores. Of the 19 service outlets, 21% (n = 4) had lower mean risk-adjusted QoL scores than expected (< 95% control limits) and 16% (n = 3) had higher mean scores than expected. Conclusion: Using QoL as an indicator to compare care quality may be feasible, with appropriate risk adjustment. Implementing QoL tools allows providers to measure and monitor their performance and service outcomes, as well as identify clients with poor quality of life who may need extra support

Informing the Vermilion River Watershed Plan through Application of the Cold Regions Hydrological Model Platform

Prepared for Ducks Unlimited Canada and North Saskatchewan Watershed Alliance.Non-Peer ReviewedThe Vermilion River Basin has been identified as one of most altered basins in the North Saskatchewan River Basin by the North Saskatchewan Watershed Alliance. Of all the basin altering activities, wetland drainage is thought to be the most important one in impacting watershed hydrology. The Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) has had recent developments that make it particularly appropriate to evaluate the impacts of Canadian Prairie wetlands on hydrology. In light of the importance of wetlands in the Vermilion River Basin and the capability of CRHM, this study had five objectives: 1) Setup CRHM for the Vermilion River Basin and conduct preliminary tests using local meteorological data. 2) Develop an improved wetland module that incorporates the dynamics of drained wetland complexes in the physically based, modular Prairie Hydrological Model of CRHM. 3) Refine CRHM results using advances in the improved wetland module, additional parameter data and other adjustments as necessary. 4) Demonstrate scenarios/sensitivity of landscape components such as wetlands and uplands to support planning decisions and make recommendations for land and watershed management. 5) Apply CRHM results to fortify recommendations and support decision making during initial plan implementation. The objectives were addressed with the following methodology. Existing data on precipitation, hydrometeorology, wetland characteristics, stage and extent, drainage pattern and land cover in the Vermilion River Basin were compiled. The existing CRHM Prairie Hydrological Model formulation was set up on the basin and test runs conducted and compared to streamflow hydrographs over multiple years. Then, improvements to the Prairie Hydrological Model formulation of CRHM were made so that CRHM could simulate sequences of many wetlands of varying sizes. The improved model was evaluated through hydrological simulation and quantitative analysis of streamflow and then used in sensitivity analysis of the effect of changing wetland drainage/restoration on streamflow for the Vermilion River. The model was then used to evaluate wetland manipulation and climate scenarios to fortify recommendations, explore options and support decision making for the implementation of the Vermilion watershed plan. The streamflow response of the Vermilion River Basin at its mouth was found to be dominated by channel hydraulics and the control structures in the lower basin and so it is influenced by wetlands only to the extent that the management regime of these control structures is affected by upstream hydrological behaviour of the tributaries with respect to volume and timing of streamflow inputs to the structures. Changes in the upper basin streamflows are more likely to be controlled by changes in the basin hydrological processes rather than in-stream water management and/or channel modifications and therefore the upper basin streamflows are more likely to show the effects of the manipulation of wetland storage

Human midcingulate cortex encodes distributed representations of task progress

The function of midcingulate cortex (MCC) remains elusive despite decades of investigation and debate. Complicating matters, individual MCC neurons respond to highly diverse task-related events, and MCC activation is reported in most human neuroimaging studies employing a wide variety of task manipulations. Here we investigate this issue by applying a model-based cognitive neuroscience approach involving neural network simulations, functional magnetic resonance imaging, and representational similarity analysis. We demonstrate that human MCC encodes distributed, dynamically evolving representations of extended, goal-directed action sequences. These representations are uniquely sensitive to the stage and identity of each sequence, indicating that MCC sustains contextual information necessary for discriminating between task states. These results suggest that standard univariate approaches for analyzing MCC function overlook the major portion of task-related information encoded by this brain area and point to promising new avenues for investigation

Prairie Hydrological Model Study Final Report

© Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, January, 2010This report describes the development of the Prairie Hydrological Model (PHM), a model that is suitable for hydrological process simulations in the prairie pothole region of Western Canada. The model considers all major prairie hydrological cycle, wetland storage, and runoff generation mechanisms and is capable of addressing the influences of changing land use, wetland drainage and climate variability. The purpose of this report is to describe the model, examine the performance of the model, and to demonstrate the model as a predictive tool for prairie hydrology. This purpose is achieved by using the model to analyze the impacts of wetland drainage and restoration as well as changes in surrounding upland land use on downstream hydrology. This focus on wetland drainage impacts required the development and testing of a new volume-area-depth (v-a-h) method for estimating wetland volume in the prairie pothole region. The method was incorporated into the PHM and improved the model’s ability to estimate wetland volume. The Cold Regions Hydrological Model platform (CRHM) is a computational toolbox developed by the University of Saskatchewan to set up and run physically based, flexible, object oriented hydrological models. CRHM was used to create the PHM for Smith Creek Research Basin (~400 km2 ), Saskatchewan. Two types of PHM runs were performed to estimate the basin hydrology. The non-LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) runs used a photogrammetric based DEM (digital elevation model) to estimate drainage area and hydrograph calibration to determine maximum depressional storage. The LiDAR runs used a fine-scale LiDAR derived DEM to determine drainage area and maximum depressional storage; use of LiDAR information meant that calibration was not required to set any parameter value. In both cases all non-topographic parameters were determined from basin observations, remote sensing and field surveys. Both LiDAR and non-LiDAR model predictions of winter snow accumulation were very similar and compared quite well with the distributed snow survey results. The simulations were able to effectively capture the natural sequence of snow redistribution and relocate snow from ‘source’ areas (e.g. fallow and stubble fields) to ‘sink’ or ‘drift’ areas (e.g. tall vegetated wetland area and deeply incised channels). This is a vital process in controlling the water balance of prairie basins as most water in wetlands and prairie river channels is the result of redistribution of snow by wind and subsequent snowmelt runoff. Soil moisture status is an important factor in determining the spring surface runoff and in controlling agricultural productivity. Unfrozen soil moisture content at a point during melt was adequately simulated from both modelling approaches. Both modelling approaches were capable of matching the spring streamflow hydrographs with good accuracy; the non-LiDAR approach performed slightly better than the LiDAR approach because the streamflow hydrograph was calibrated, whereas no calibration was involved in the LiDAR simulation. However, the LiDAR approach to simulation shows promise for application to ungauged basins or to changing basins and demonstrates that prairie hydrology can be simulated based on our current understanding of physical principles and good basin data that provides “real” parameters. The approach uses a ii LiDAR DEM, SPOT 5 satellite images and involved automated basin parameters delineation techniques and a new wetland depth-area-volume calculation. The new wetland depth-area-volume calculation used a LiDAR-derived DEM to estimate maximum depressional storage, a substantial improvement over estimates generated from simpler area-volume methods. This was likely due to the inclusion of information on depression morphology when calculating volume. Further, the process to retrieve the coefficients from a LiDAR DEM was automated and wetland storage was estimated at a broad spatial scale. A GIS model was created that can automatically extract the elevation and area data necessary for use in the new depth-area-volume method. Using the Prairie Hydrological Model, PHM, a series of scenarios on changing land use and wetland and drainage conditions was created from 2007-08 meteorological data. The scenario simulations were used to calculate cumulative spring basin discharge, total winter snow accumulation, blowing snow transport and sublimation, cumulative infiltration, and spring surface depression storage status. From these simulations, spring streamflow volumes decreased by 2% with complete conversion to agriculture and by 79% with complete restoration of wetlands; conversely it increased by 41% with complete conversion to forest cover and by 117% with complete wetland drainage. The greatest sensitivity was to further drainage of wetlands which substantially increased streamflow. Additional sensitivity analysis of scenarios on basin streamflow using historical (29-year periods: 1965-82 and 1993-2005) meteorology and initial conditions and current land use was carried out. Results showed that the effects of land use change and wetland drainage alteration on cumulative basin spring discharge volume and peak daily spring discharge were highly variable from year to year and depended on the flow condition. For both forest conversion and agricultural conversion and wetland drainage scenarios increased the long-term average peak discharge from current conditions, whereas wetland restoration reduced it. Forest conversion, agricultural conversion and wetland drainage scenarios increased the long-term average spring discharge volume by 1%, 19%, and 36% respectively; whilst the wetland restoration scenario reduced volumes by 45%. Several recommendations were made regarding the modelling challenges faced by this study and value of local meteorological data collection and using a LiDAR generated DEM for Prairie hydrological modelling purposes. It is recommended that similar studies be conducted in other geographic areas of the prairies where climate, soils, wetland configuration and drainage may produce differing results

Prairie Hydrological Model Study Progress Report, December 2008

© Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, December 2008This report is an update on progress made to the middle of December 2008, corresponding to “Milestone Month 20”. According to our study plan, at this milestone “we will have completed a wetland module and with evaluation on Smith Creek Research Basin and archival data available at the Centre for Hydrology (Objective 3, 4)”. More specifically, Objectives 3 and 4 are stated as: • Objective 3: A physically based, hydrological response unit-based hydrological model, (the Prairie Hydrological Model), will be developed that is suitable for multiple season simulation of the hydrology of the Canadian Prairie environment. The model will be capable of predicting water balance, soil moisture, snow cover, actual evaporation and streamflow on a daily time-step with minimal calibration of model parameters from streamflow records. The model will contain a wetland module that includes assigned variable drainage rates from the wetland. The intended basins would drain to a stream or internally drained lake/wetland, with basin size to be greater than ~1 km2 and less than ~250 km2. • Objective 4: The Prairie Hydrological Model will be evaluated at Smith Creek through hydrological simulation and quantitative analysis of multi-objective criteria, including streamflow and wetland extent. Whilst calibration will be minimised and limited to non-physical aspects of the model, certain parameters will be optimised from these comparisons. For streamflow, both annual and peak flows are parameters of interest. For wetlands, seasonal extent is the parameter of interest. Outlined below are the research activities regarding these two objectives, beginning with a description of the model created with the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling Platform (CRHM), the CRHM-Prairie Hydrological Model, or CRHM-PHM, followed by a description of the addition of the wetland module, and concluding with preliminary results from CRHM-PHM evaluations at Smith Creek

Improving and Testing the Prairie Hydrological Model at Smith Creek Research Basin

Non-Peer ReviewedThe 2010 Prairie Hydrological Model configuration of the Cold Regions Hydrological Model was developed to include improved snowmelt and evaporation physics and a hysteretic relationship between wetland storage and runoff contributing area. The revised model was used to simulate the snow regimes on and the streamflow runoff from the five sub-basins and main basin of Smith Creek, Saskatchewan for six years (2007-2013) with good performance when compared to field observations. Smith Creek measured streamflows over this period included the highest annual flow volume on record (2011) and high flows from heavy summer rains in 2012. Smith Creek basin has undergone substantial drainage from 1958 when it contained 96 km2 of wetlands covering 24% of the basin area to the existing (2008 measurement) 43 km2 covering 11% of the basin. The Prairie Hydrological Model was run over the 2007-2013 period for various wetland extent scenarios that included the 1958 historical maximum, measured extents in 2000 and 2008, a minimum extent that excluded drainage of conservation lands and an extreme minimum extent involving complete drainage of all wetlands in Smith Creek basin. Overall, Smith Creek total flow volumes over six years increase 55% due to drainage of wetlands from the current (2008) state, and decrease 26% with restoration to the 1958 state. This sensitivity in flow volume to wetland change is crucially important for the water balance of downstream water bodies such as Lake Winnipeg. Whilst the greatest proportional impacts on the peak daily flows are for dry years, substantial impacts on the peak daily discharge of record (2011) from wetland drainage (+78%) or restoration (-32%) are notable and important for infrastructure in and downstream of Smith Creek. For the flood of record (2011), the annual flow volume and the peak daily discharge are estimated to increase from 57,317 to 81,227 dam3 and from 19.5 to 27.5 m3 /s, respectively, due to wetland drainage that has already occurred in Smith Creek. Although Smith Creek is already heavily drained and its streamflows have been impacted, the annual flow volumes and peak daily discharge for the flood of record can still be strongly increased by complete drainage from the 2008 wetland state, rising to 103,669 dam3 and 49 m3 /s respectively. This model simulation exercise shows that wetland drainage can increase annual and peak daily flows substantially, and that notable increases to estimates of the annual volume and peak daily flow of the flood of record have derived from wetland drainage and will proceed with further wetland drainage

A Review of Canadian Prairie Hydrology: Principles, Modelling and Response to Land Use and Drainage Change

© Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, October 2007This report reviews research on the hydrological cycle, runoff generation, hydrological modelling and the influence of changes to land cover and wetlands on the same for the Canadian Prairies. The purpose of this report is to identify and examine the major processes that are responsible for prairie hydrology as well as the impacts of land cover change such as wetland drainage on water storage and on the streamflow hydrograph. The objective of this report is to propose hydrological modelling techniques; these techniques can contribute to the development of a predictive tool in the form of a prairie hydrological model. It is intent to utilize such a hydrological model to evaluate the impacts of wetland drainage and restoration as well as changes in the surrounding upland land use on downstream hydrology. Hydrology in the Canadian Prairie region is complex and highly varied. Only one third of annual precipitation occurs over the winter and the surface snow water equivalent distribution is highly heterogeneous due to wind redistribution of snow during blowing snow storms. Blowing snow can transport and sublimate as much as 75% of annual snowfall from open prairie fields. The formation of drifts from windblown snow lengthens the spring runoff season and modulates the peak spring flows. The frozen state of mineral soils results in rapid snowmelt runoff in the springtime, which produces 80% or more of annual local runoff. The prairie region is characterized by glacially-formed depressions; these depressions fill with water to form pothole sloughs and wetlands and are very important to prairie hydrology due to their surface storage capacity. A fill-and-spill runoff mechanism is identifiable in prairie basins that are dominated by these surface depressions where flow does not commence until all storage in the depressions is filled. This results in an episodic and rapid increase in contributing area during peak runoff events. However outside of these events much of the prairie landscape is non-contributing to streamflow and even in the most extreme runoff events, some prairie basins are internally drained and never contribute to streamflow. This fill and spill phenomenon is in contrast to forms of hydrological storage found in temperate regions in which the flow rate is proportional to storage. Because of depressional storage and poorly and internally drained basins, most surface runoff in the prairie region does not contribute to the major river systems. Hydrological processes in the prairie region are sensitive to the land cover and climate change. Wetlands can be completely dried out when surrounded by native grassland rather than agricultural fields. Droughts are frequent on the Canadian Prairies. Lower precipitation and higher air temperature are the common characteristics of droughts; surface snowmelt runoff is largely suppressed and can even completely cease when warmer (e.g. 5 ºC increase of temperature) or drier (e.g. 50% decrease of precipitation) conditions develop. The Cold Regions Hydrological Model platform (CRHM) is a “state-of-the-art” physically-based hydrological model designed for the prairie region. CRHM is based on a modular, object-oriented structure in which component modules represent basin descriptions, observations, or physically-based algorithms for calculating hydrological processes. Preliminary tests show reasonable performance of CRHM in simulating the water balance and streamflow hydrograph for prairie regions. The model also shows capabilities to simulate impact of land use change and climate change on hydrological processes and streamflow. Further work in CHRM will be development of surface storage and surface routing models that are suitable for modelling hydrology in the prairie wetland region