Evaluating uncertainty in climate change impacts on peak discharge and flood volume in the Qaran Talar watershed, Iran

This study evaluates the effects of climate change (CC) on runoff properties over the case study of the Qaran Talar watershed located in Iran. To consider the two main sources of uncertainty, i.e., Greenhouse Gases emission (GHG) scenarios and outputs of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), a daily rainfall time series was generated for two future periods (2021-2050 and 2070-2099) at three risk levels of 0.1, 0.25 and 0.50. 22 AOGCMs outputs following two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used. The results showed that the uncertainty of climate change scenarios was primarily owing to the uncertainty of GCMs outputs. Regarding the 2021-2050 period, under both emission scenarios, the increases in peak discharge and flood volume (FV) were estimated to reach 70, 50, and 30% at three risk levels of 0.1, 0.25 and 0.50, respectively, compared to the recent past period. As the current century draws to a close, the difference between the results of the two emission scenarios becomes apparent so that in the far-future period (2070-2099), the RCP8.5 scenario estimates and FV more than the RCP4.5 scenario does. Additionally, it was found that the uncertainty caused by AOGCMs was more than that by GHG emission scenarios. HIGHLIGHTS The impacts of CC on flood hydrographs were discussed.; CC leads to an increasing trend in and FV.; RCP8.5 predicted a greater increase in and FV compared to RCP4.5.; The uncertainty caused by AOGCMs is more compared to GHG scenarios.

A multi-strain Synbiotic may reduce viral respiratory infections in asthmatic children: a randomized controlled trial

Background and objective: Asthma is a growing problem worldwide. Acute exacerbations impose considerable morbidity, mortality, and increased cost. Viral respiratory infections are the most common cause (80-85%) of pediatric asthma exacerbations and admissions to the hospital. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of a new synbiotic Lactocare® on viral respiratory infections and asthma exacerbations in asthmatic children. Methods: In this double blind, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trial, 72 children with mild persistent asthma, aged between 6 and 12 years, were randomized to receive either Lactocare®, a Synbiotic containing 1 billion CFU/Capsule of Lactobacillus casei, Lactobacillus rhamnosus, Streptococcus thermophilus, Bifidobacterium breve, Lactobacillus acidophilus, Bifidobacterium infantis, Lactobacillus bulgaricus, and Fructooligosacharide (Zist Takhmir, Tehran, Iran) or placebo daily for 60 days. The primary outcome was the number of viral respiratory infections, and secondary outcomes were school absence, salbutamol and prednisolone usage, outpatient visits, and hospital admission for asthma. The outcomes were compared among study groups using the SPSS 11.5 program and the Mann Whitney and Fisher exact tests. Results: Of the 72 children who were enrolled with mild persistent asthma, 36 were assigned randomly to be treated with synbiotic and 36 with placebo. The number of viral respiratory infections was significantly higher in placebo group than the synbiotic group during the first month of intervention (0.74 ± 0.12 vs. 0.44 ± 0.1, p < 0.007) but not during the second month (0.5 ± 0.8 vs. 0.5 ± 0.8, p < 0.641). Considering the total duration of the study (two months), infection episodes also were significantly lower in the synbiotic group (0.92 ± 0.15 vs. 0.69 ± 0.11, p < 0.046). Salbutamol consumption was significantly lower in the synbiotic group, but there were no significant differences in school absenteeism, oral prednisolone use, outpatient visits, or hospital admissions. Conclusion: This new synbiotic (a mixture of seven probiotic strains plus fructooligosacharide may reduce episodes of viral infection in asthmatic children. Trial registration: This study is registered in Iranian Registry of Clinical Trials with registration number of IRCT201509234976N3. Funding: This research was supported financially by the Research Council of Mashhad University of Medical Sciences (Grant Number: 911048)