Prediction of Land use change in urbanization control districts using neural network - A Case Study of Regional Hub City in Japan

Land use is changeable in the urban area, depending upon the economical mechanism of market. The controlled urbanization area is made a region where the urbanization should be controlled by the city planning and zoning act. However, in the zone, there are also many areas where form regulation of the building is looser than the urbanization zone which should form a city area. Therefore disorderly development acts, such as location of the large-scale commercial institution and leisure facilities unsuitable for circumference environment, are accepted in the controlled urbanization area. On the other hand, energies decrease in existing village by population decrease and declining birthrate and a growing proportion of elderly people become a problem. In order to cope with this problem, it is important to understand the past conditions of land use for the urban planning. This paper describes the spatial structure of urbanization control districts based on the present conditions and the change structure of land use by using mesh data surveyed and the copy of the development permission register in a local hub-city in Japan. Land use forecasting systems are designed using neural network. Although land use is classified separately in every surveyed year, the common classification of land use is proposed, considering the similarity of spatial distributions and the physical meanings of land use. Then, the distribution by mesh at each division of land use is studied. Spatial distribution of land use and its transition are also discussed. Next, land use forecasting models are made out using neural network. The feature and structure of change in the land use of an area depends on whether development projects are carried out or not. Therefore, all of the meshes are divided into two groups, and forecasting models are designed. Though our proposed approach is a macroscopic forecasting method of land use, it is useful in the investigation of urban policies for development projects and in the evaluation of their effects

Spatial structure and prediction of Land use change considering development projects in urban promotion districts

n this paper, the actual conditions and the change structure of land use by using mesh data are studied in urban promotion area in a local hub city of Fukuoka, Japan. Firstly, all meshes are classified into 15 patterns based on distribution of land use. Then, transition probability models are made out based on the change of these 15 patterns. The Change structure of land use in an area depends on whether development projects are carried out or not. Therefore, all of the meshes are divided into two groups, and different transition probability models are proposed. Finally, a prediction method of land use is proposed under the consideration of the changing structure of meshes. Though our proposed approach is a macroscopic forecasting method of land use, it is useful to evaluate the effects of urban policies for development projects.

Evaluation of City Planning Road Development Measures by Microscopic Traffic Simulation

This study was made on the development plan of Kawahara Avenue, a road project authorized in city planning of Miyazaki City in Japan. The Kawahara Avenue development is planned along the Oyodo River. The land use of the area along the route comprises the tourist hotel zone, residential zone, and industrial zone. The Kawahara Avenue planning, unlike most other road development plans in Japan, requires much more than simply providing for the smooth flow of traffic. In the tourist hotel zone where the leading Miyazaki City hotels are located, the image and impression the tourists may have about the city is an important consideration. Therefore, the city government intends that this section of the road should not have excessive traffic. In the residential zone, the existing road network consists of narrow streets with no sidewalks. In addition to the sidewalks to be built, Kawahara Avenue is expected to handle a great deal of the traffic passing the residential district. This should help meet the goal in providing a safe environment for the pedestrians in other narrow streets without sidewalks. Under the circumstances as stated above, the planning has faced significant constraints in land purchasing involving forced move-out in the result of financial problems and coordination of the views between the city administration and the residents in the vicinity. The purpose of this research is to study under the given constraints what would be the most appropriate plan for the development of Kawahara Avenue. First, a traffic monitoring survey was conducted in the subject districts to compile Origin-Destination (OD) data of traffic flow in the districts. Then, the road network of the subject districts and traffic signal phase data were digitized to carry out microscopic traffic simulation and checked for reproduction accuracy of the current situation. The results confirmed that simulation reproduces the traffic conditions of the districts with sufficient precision. Furthermore, we prepared several hypothetical proposals for the road development and evaluated with the same simulation system as to how the traffic situations would be had those proposals been implemented. As a result it was demonstrated that the original goals can be achieved by developing the road within the given constraints.

GIS-based Forecast of Landscape Changes with the Ito Land Readjustment Project

The purpose of the present research is to attempt consolidation of geographic information into the GIS regarding the Ito Land Readjustment Project presently being implemented in northern Kyushu in Japan, and forecast the landscape changes before/after comparison of the project. First, the topographic map, 50-meter mesh digital map (elevation), aerial photograph, land use map, project plan, land use zone plan, district plan, substitute lot plan and other geographic information of the project district were collected from various sources and systematized. Thereafter the data were aggregated using ArcGIS. Next, building and structure data before and after the project were prepared and height data of these buildings and structures were combined with the land elevation data. Then, the major view point fields in the district were selected, to examine the extent of the change of the visibility areas from these view point fields before and after the project. Moreover, focusing on the mountains in the visibility areas, we forecasted how much the visibility area of the mountains would decrease at each view point field after construction of the buildings and structures in the project implementation. Finally, we showed 3-D images of the project district using ArcScene, and investigated the extent of visibility of the mountain range sky line from each view point field as before/after comparison of the project.

Evaluation of City Planning Road Development Measures by Microscopic Traffic Simulation

This study was made on the development plan of Kawahara Avenue, a road project authorized in city planning of Miyazaki City in Japan. The Kawahara Avenue development is planned along the Oyodo River. The land use of the area along the route comprises the tourist hotel zone, residential zone, and industrial zone. The Kawahara Avenue planning, unlike most other road development plans in Japan, requires much more than simply providing for the smooth flow of traffic. In the tourist hotel zone where the leading Miyazaki City hotels are located, the image and impression the tourists may have about the city is an important consideration. Therefore, the city government intends that this section of the road should not have excessive traffic. In the residential zone, the existing road network consists of narrow streets with no sidewalks. In addition to the sidewalks to be built, Kawahara Avenue is expected to handle a great deal of the traffic passing the residential district. This should help meet the goal in providing a safe environment for the pedestrians in other narrow streets without sidewalks. Under the circumstances as stated above, the planning has faced significant constraints in land purchasing involving forced move-out in the result of financial problems and coordination of the views between the city administration and the residents in the vicinity. The purpose of this research is to study under the given constraints what would be the most appropriate plan for the development of Kawahara Avenue. First, a traffic monitoring survey was conducted in the subject districts to compile Origin-Destination (OD) data of traffic flow in the districts. Then, the road network of the subject districts and traffic signal phase data were digitized to carry out microscopic traffic simulation and checked for reproduction accuracy of the current situation. The results confirmed that simulation reproduces the traffic conditions of the districts with sufficient precision. Furthermore, we prepared several hypothetical proposals for the road development and evaluated with the same simulation system as to how the traffic situations would be had those proposals been implemented. As a result it was demonstrated that the original goals can be achieved by developing the road within the given constraints

GIS-based Forecast of Landscape Changes with the Ito Land Readjustment Project

The purpose of the present research is to attempt consolidation of geographic information into the GIS regarding the Ito Land Readjustment Project presently being implemented in northern Kyushu in Japan, and forecast the landscape changes before/after comparison of the project. First, the topographic map, 50-meter mesh digital map (elevation), aerial photograph, land use map, project plan, land use zone plan, district plan, substitute lot plan and other geographic information of the project district were collected from various sources and systematized. Thereafter the data were aggregated using ArcGIS. Next, building and structure data before and after the project were prepared and height data of these buildings and structures were combined with the land elevation data. Then, the major view point fields in the district were selected, to examine the extent of the change of the visibility areas from these view point fields before and after the project. Moreover, focusing on the mountains in the visibility areas, we forecasted how much the visibility area of the mountains would decrease at each view point field after construction of the buildings and structures in the project implementation. Finally, we showed 3-D images of the project district using ArcScene, and investigated the extent of visibility of the mountain range sky line from each view point field as before/after comparison of the project

Spatial Structure and Prediction of Land Use Change Considering Development Projects in Urban Promotion Districts

In this paper, the actual conditions and the change structure of land use by using mesh data are studied in urban promotion area in a local hub city of Fukuoka, Japan. Firstly, all meshes are classified into 15 patterns based on distribution of land use. Then, transition probability models are made out based on the change of these 15 patterns. The Change structure of land use in an area depends on whether development projects are carried out or not. Therefore, all of the meshes are divided into two groups, and different transition probability models are proposed. Finally, a prediction method of land use is proposed under the consideration of the changing structure of meshes. Though our proposed approach is a macroscopic forecasting method of land use, it is useful to evaluate the effects of urban policies for development projects.44 th European Congress of the European Regional Science Association Regions and Fiscal Federalism, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal, 25-29 August 200

Spatial structure and prediction of Land use change considering development projects in urban promotion districts

n this paper, the actual conditions and the change structure of land use by using mesh data are studied in urban promotion area in a local hub city of Fukuoka, Japan. Firstly, all meshes are classified into 15 patterns based on distribution of land use. Then, transition probability models are made out based on the change of these 15 patterns. The Change structure of land use in an area depends on whether development projects are carried out or not. Therefore, all of the meshes are divided into two groups, and different transition probability models are proposed. Finally, a prediction method of land use is proposed under the consideration of the changing structure of meshes. Though our proposed approach is a macroscopic forecasting method of land use, it is useful to evaluate the effects of urban policies for development projects

Tangential SX Imaging for Visualization of Fluctuations in Toroidal Plasmas

When the ratio of the plasma pressure to the magnetic pressure increases, Various kinds of instabilities evolve. Among them, magnetohydrodynamic instabilities, by which the plasma is deformed macroscopically, are in concern. Non-linear evolution of them is fairly complicated and two-dimensional structure of them is the key to understanding the phenomena. Tangentially viewing SX camera is promising diagnostics for 2D visualization, because most of the perturbations tend to have the equal phase along the field lines, the tangential view, which is almost parallel to the field lines, give a good opportunity to resolve the structure. Issues in this kind of camera are discussed. Improved system using multi-layer mirror is also described

Prognostic factors for survival after first recurrence in breast cancer: a retrospective analysis of 252 recurrent cases at a single institution.

[Introduction]Previous studies have shown that primary breast cancer patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive status have better outcomes in terms of both overall survival and disease-free intervals (DFI). However, 25.2 % of our ER-positive patients experienced recurrence. This study aimed to define factors potentially predicting survival after first recurrence in surgically treated patients with stage I–III breast cancer. [Methods]We retrospectively analyzed 252 females with recurrent breast cancer who had undergone surgery and been followed at Kyoto University Hospital in Japan. Age, clinical stage, pathological stage, axillary lymph node involvement, ER status at the time of diagnosis, progesterone receptor status, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status, operative method, adjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant endocrine therapy, use of trastuzumab after recurrence, site of recurrence, DFI, and time of recurrence were examined for possible influences on survival after the first recurrence. [Results]Positive ER status and positive PR status at the time of diagnosis were significantly favorable factors of survival after first recurrence for patients with recurrence, p < 0.001 and p = 0.021, respectively. More than two sites of recurrence (p < 0.001) were associated with shorter survival time after the first recurrence on multivariate analysis. Survival of patients with recurrent breast cancer steadily improved from 1980–1994 to 1995–2008, significantly in ER-negative subgroups. [Conclusions]Positive ER status at the time of diagnosis is a powerful predictor for favorable survival after first recurrence. Survival time after first recurrence of breast cancer has steadily increased in recent decades. Advances in treatments and attitudes about breast cancer have contributed to this improvement in survival after first recurrence