OVERVIEW AND ASSESSMENT OF CHANGING TAX POLICY

Public Economics,

Implications of Different Bases for a VAT

Analyzes options for a value-added tax: a low rate on a broad base to meet deficit reduction targets; a high rate on a narrow base that excludes items disproportionately consumed by lower-income households; or a broad base with a targeted rebate

Using a VAT for Deficit Reduction

Examines implications of imposing a value-added tax, compared with increasing individual income tax rates (including capital gains tax), such as the distribution of the tax burden on households, distortions on economic decisions, and government costs

Reducing the Deficit by Increasing Individual Income Tax Rates

Estimates impact on debt-to-GDP ratio of raising all individual income tax rates, including the capital gains tax; raising the top three rates and leaving capital gains rate unchanged; and raising the top two rates and leaving capital gains unchanged

Using a VAT to Reform the Income Tax

Analyzes a proposal to simplify the tax system and improve economic incentives by adopting a value-added tax, removing most current taxpayers from income tax rolls, reforming the corporate income tax, and lowering the top individual and corporate rates

Methodology for Distributing a VAT

Proposes a revised methodology for analyzing the distributional effects of a value-added tax - the economic burden placed on households of different income levels and demographics - as well as on government revenues and spending and capital

Revenue and Welfare Implications for a Capital Gains Tax Cut

This paper uses a general equilibrium model to simulate both the effects of a preferential capital-gains tax rate on total income tax revenues and the effects of a revenue-neutral substitution between a capital gains preference and marginal income tax rates on economic efficiency and the distribution of income. In the simulations, a capital gains preference increases efficiency by reducing tax distortions between untaxed assets (household and state and local capital) and taxable business sector assets and between realized and unrealized capital gains (the "lock-in" effect), but reduces efficiency by increasing tax distortions between corporate dividends and retained earnings and between financial assets that produce capital gain income and those that produce ordinary income. Because the model treats aggregate factor supplies as fixed, however, the simulations do not capture the efficiency gain from reducing the tax distortion between current and future consumption or the loss from increasing the tax distortion between current consumption and leisure (or untaxed labor). The net estimated welfare effects depend on two parameters: the elasticity of capital gains realizations with respect to a change in the capital gains tax rate and the elasticity of the dividend-payout ratio with respect to a change in the tax cost of dividends relative to retentions. With no payout response, the net welfare effect from a 15% maximum rate on capital gains is positive for a wide range of realizations elasticities. With a high payout elasticity, the net welfare effect is slightly positive for high estimates of the realizations elasticity and slightly negative for low estimates of the realizations elasticity. The welfare changes, both positive and negative, mainly affect taxpayers with income of $50,000 and over.

Curbing Tax Expenditures

Reviews trends in tax expenditures and their effects and examines three options for raising tax revenue by applying limits to large and widely utilized tax preferences: a fixed percentage credit, a cap based on income, and a constant percentage reduction

What the 2008 Stock Market Crash Means for Retirement Security

Compares future retirement resources before and after the stock market decline, by gender, marital status, race/ethnicity, education, and retirement income quintile, under three scenarios: no recovery, full recovery, and partial recovery in ten years

Mortgage Interest Deduction

Reviews the mortgage interest deduction's fiscal costs, its limitations in subsidizing homeownership, and alternatives. Analyzes the estimated effects of eliminating it, replacing it with alternative tax credits, and limiting the deduction to 28 percent