The past and future of terrorism research

Este artículo destaca cinco áreas donde el análisis económico del terrorismo ha tenido mayor relevancia en las políticas de los últimos 30 años. Estas áreas son la evaluación de la efectividad de las acciones contra el terrorismo, la identificación de las causas del terrorismo, la medición de las consecuencias económicas del terrorismo, el análisis de la dinámica de las series temporales de actos terroristas y la formulación de representaciones del terrorismo basadas en la teoría de juegos. La principal novedad del artículo es que sintetiza investigaciones anteriores e identifica las cuestiones más importantes en las políticas que requieren un análisis adicional. Estas cuestiones permiten entender cómo operan las redes globales de terrorismo, evaluar los resultados de las estrategias antiterroristas y de formas alternativas de cooperación internacional e investigar los aspectos estratégicos del terrorismo de suicidas. Se ofrece un procedimiento para tratar cada una de estas políticas.terrorismo, contraterrorismo, análisis coste beneficio, teoría de juegos, efectividad de las políticas, consecuencias económicas.

Global and regional public goods: a prognosis for collective action

This paper applies modern concepts from the theory of public goods to indicate why progress has been made with respect to some global and regional public goods (for example, cutting sulphur emissions) but not with respect to others (for example, cutting greenhouse gases). Factors promoting collective action at the transnational level include the removal of uncertainty, a high share of nation-specific benefits, a limited number of essential participants and the presence of an influential leader nation. The impact of public good aggregation technologies on the future provision of transnational public goods is related to the trend in world-wide income inequality. Principles are presented for designing supranational structures for addressing transnational public good problems.

Immigration policy and counterterrorism

A terrorist group, based in a developing (host) country, draws unskilled and skilled labor from the productive sector to conduct attacks at home and abroad. The host nation chooses proactive countermeasures, while accounting for the terrorist campaign. Moreover, a targeted developed nation decides its optimal mix of immigration quotas and defensive counterterrorism actions. Even though proactive measures in the host country may not curb terrorism at home, it may still be advantageous in terms of national income. Increases in the unskilled immigration quota augment terrorism against the developed country; increases in the skilled immigration quota may or may not raise terrorism against the developed country. When the developed country assumes a leadership role, it strategically augments its terrorism defenses and reduces its unskilled immigration quota to induce more proactive measures in the host country. The influence of leadership on the skilled immigration quota is more nuanced.Emigration and immigration ; Terrorism

The interplay between preemptive and defensive counterterrorism measures: a two-stage game

A two-stage game depiction of counterterrorism is presented, where the emphasis is on the interaction between the preemptive and defensive measures taken by two targeted countries facing a common threat. The preemptor is likely to be the high-cost defender with the greater foreign interests. A prime-target country may also assume the preemptor role. The analysis identifies key factors - cost comparisons, foreign interests, and targeting risks - that determine counterterrorism allocations. The study shows that the market failures associated with preemptive and defensive countermeasures may be jointly ameliorated by a disadvantaged defender. Nevertheless, the subgame perfect equilibrium will still be suboptimal owing to a preemption choice that does not fully internalize the externalities.Terrorism ; War - Economic aspects

On sharing NATO defence burdens in the 1990s and beyond

This article investigates NATO burden sharing in the 1990s in light of strategic, technological, political and membership changes. Both an ability-to-pay and a benefits-received analysis of burden sharing are conducted. During 1990-99, there is no evidence of disproportionate burden sharing, where the large allies shoulder the burdens of the small. Nevertheless, the theoretical model predicts that this disproportionality will plague NATO in the near future. Thus far, there is still a significant concordance between benefits received and defence burdens carried. When alternative expansion scenarios are studied, the extent of disproportionality of burden sharing increases as NATO grows in size. A broader security burden-sharing measure is devised and tested; based on this broader measure, there is still no disproportionality evident in the recent past.

Foreign direct investment, aid, and terrorism: an analysis of developing countries

Using a dynamic panel data framework, we investigate the relationship between the two major forms of terrorism and foreign direct investment (FDI). We then analyze how these relationships are affected by foreign aid flows. The analysis focuses on 78 developing countries for 1984- 2008. Our findings suggest that all types of terrorism depress FDI. In addition, aid mitigates the negative effects of total and domestic terrorism on FDI; however, this is not the case for transnational terrorism. This finding highlights that different forms of terrorism call for tailoring mitigating strategies. Foreign aid apparently cannot address the causes and supply lines of transnational terrorism. Aid’s ability to curb the risk to FDI for total and domestic terrorism is extremely important because (i) domestic terrorism is an overwhelming fraction of the total terrorism for many developing nations, and (ii) FDI is an important engine of development for these nations.Investments, Foreign ; Terrorism ; Foreign aid program

On financing global and international public goods

Three dimensions of public goods--nonrivalry of benefits, the possibility of being excluded from benefits, and the technology for aggregating public supply--determine what kinds of institutions and transnational actions are required for their provision and financing. For some public goods--especially for those for which the exclusion of nonpayers is not feasible--these properties are such that a public sector push is needed or the good will not be financed. This push can come from a supranational structure (such as the World Bank, the United Nations, or the European Union) that directly or indirectly collects the requisite fees from its members to underwrite international public goods (IPGs). To understand the role of international institutions in promoting IPGs, one must ascertain the nature of the good and whether it requires a push, a coax, or no assistance from a supranational structure or influential nation(s) and agents (such as charitable foundations). The transnational community should explicitly direct scarce resources only to those global and international public goods that need either a significant push or only a smaller coax by the transnational community. When clubs or markets can finance international public goods, the community should sit back and let incentives guide the actions of sovereign nations.Decentralization,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Stabilization,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Carbon Policy and Trading

A CONTRIBUTION TO THE THEORY OF DEVALUATION

Devaluation theory has been in and out of the economic spotlight for .any years. Scores of articles have been written by some of the best theorists in economics. However, many unanswered questions have been left for future theorists and empirists to solve. Devaluation theory has been out of the spotlight for the last ten to twelve years. Nevertheless, twelve years ago it was at the forefront of interest and numerous excellent articles were written on the subject. Someday in the near future devaluation theory might again occupy the spotlight. This dissertation examines the effectiveness of devaluation in the hope. of indicating potentially important relationships previously un-investigated. This dissertation will break new ground in its discussion of capital flows, the time period analysis, and the introduction of dynamics

The Exploitation Hypothesis in a Public Good Economy: Some Extensions

Since Olson’s (1965) The Logic of Collective Action, the exploitation hypothesis, in which the rich shoulders the provision burden of public goods for the poor, has held sway despite empirical exceptions. To address such exceptions, we establish two alternative exploitation hypotheses based on asymmetric preferences or on productivity differences regarding the public good. The classic hypothesis and its two variants are proven in a novel fashion. Our theoretical insights are then illustrated by some empirical examples from the field of international public goods, such as military defence and cross-border pollution

The impact of terrorism and conflicts on growth in Asia, 1970- 2004

This paper quantifies the impact of terrorism and conflicts on income per capita growth in Asia for 1970-2004. Our panel estimations show that transnational terrorist attacks had a significant growth-limiting effect. An additional terrorist incident per million persons reduces gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth by about 1.5%. In populous countries, many additional attacks are needed to achieve such a large impact. Transnational terrorism reduces growth by crowding in government expenditures. Unlike developing countries, developed countries are able to absorb terrorism without displaying adverse economic consequences; an internal conflict has the greatest growth concern, about twice that of transnational terrorism. Conflict variables are associated with smaller investment shares and increased government spending, with the crowding in of government spending being the dominant influence. For developing Asian countries, intrastate and interstate wars have a much greater impact than terrorism does on the crowding-in of government spending. When regime types-democratic and autocratic-are taken into account, in our research, we found that the precision of the estimates increases with the increasing significance of transnational terrorist attacks. Policy recommendations indicate the need for rich Asian countries to assist their poorer neighbors in coping with the negative growth consequences of political violence. Failure to assist may result in region-wide repercussions. This is particularly relevant as production becomes fragmented in Asia in order to profit from comparative advantage and as regional infrastructure networks link Asia to exploit scale economies. In the latter case, conflict and terrorism in one country can create bottlenecks with region-wide economic consequences. Moreover, prime-target Western countries-e.g., the United States and the United Kingdom-have a responsibility to bolster Asian defenses against terrorism as attacks against Western interests have been shifted, in part, to Asian venues since the 9/11 attacks in the United States. The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and European Union link can assist with coordinating efforts to quell conflicts and eliminate terrorism, but this requires putting recent declarations into practice. The Asian Development Bank and the World Bank could play pivotal roles, especially after a conflict ends, to channel aid for reconstruction so that once-embattled countries can recover rapidly. Nongovernmental organizations and the United Nations could also assist in this post-conflict recovery. The Asian Development Band and ASEAN could coordinate and fund counterterrorism spending to curb overspending on defensive measures and bolster under-spending on proactive measures. The United Nations could assist in peacekeeping operations for internal conflicts