Measuring risk in the hedge fund sector

Recent high correlations among hedge fund returns could suggest concentrations of risk comparable to those preceding the hedge fund crisis of 1998. A comparison of the current rise in correlations with the elevation before the 1998 event, however, reveals a key difference. The current increase stems mainly from a decline in the volatility of returns, while the earlier rise was driven by high covariances - an alternative measure of comovement in dollar terms. Because volatility and covariances are lower today, the current hedge fund environment differs from the 1998 environment.>Hedge funds ; Rate of return ; Corporations - Finance ; Financial institutions

Learning about Beta: time-varying factor loadings, expected returns and the conditional CAPM

This paper explores the theoretical and empirical implications of time-varying and unobservable beta. Investors infer factor loadings from the history of returns via the Kalman filter. Due to learning, the history of beta matters. Even though the conditional CAPM holds, standard OLS tests can reject the model if the evolution of investor's expectations is not properly modelled. The authors use their methodology to explain returns on the twenty-five size and book-to-market sorted portfolios. Their learning version of the conditional CAPM produces pricing errors that are significantly smaller than standard conditional or unconditional CAPM and the model is not rejected by the data.Capital Asset Pricing Model; CAPM; investments

Liquidity, monetary policy, and financial cycles

A close look at how financial intermediaries manage their balance sheets suggests that these institutions raise their leverage during asset price booms and lower it during downturns - pro-cyclical actions that tend to exaggerate the fluctuations of the financial cycle. The authors of this study argue that the growth rate of aggregate balance sheets may be the most fitting measure of liquidity in a market-based financial system. Moreover, the authors show a strong correlation between balance sheet growth and the easing and tightening of monetary policy.Intermediation (Finance) ; Liquidity (Economics) ; Monetary policy ; Business cycles ; Asset pricing

What financing data reveal about dealer leverage

The Federal Reserve collects data on the financing activities of the primary government securities dealers. Some market analysts argue that the data show a considerable rise in dealer leverage in recent years. However, a close reading of the data suggests that dealer borrowing involving fixed-income securities has grown only modestly. Moreover, the increase that has occurred is not clearly associated with greater risk taking.Government securities ; Interest rates ; Risk

The Federal Reserve's Primary Dealer Credit Facility

As liquidity conditions in the "repo market"--the market where broker-dealers obtain financing for their securities--deteriorated following the near-bankruptcy of Bear Stearns in March 2008, the Federal Reserve took the step of creating a special facility to provide overnight loans to dealers that have a trading relationship with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Six months later, in the wake of new strains in the repo market, the Fed expanded the facility by broadening the types of collateral accepted for loans. Both initiatives were designed to help restore the orderly functioning of the market and to prevent the spillover of distress to other financial firms.Federal Reserve Bank of New York ; Loans ; Financial crises ; Brokers