Twenty five year follow-up for breast cancer incidence and mortality of the Canadian national breast screening study: randomised screening trial

Annual mammography in women aged 40-59 does not reduce mortality from breast cancer beyond that of physical examination or usual care when adjuvant therapy for breast cancer is freely available. Abstract Objective: To compare breast cancer incidence and mortality up to 25 years in women aged 40-59 who did or did not undergo mammography screening. Design: Follow-up of randomised screening trial by centre coordinators, the study’s central office, and linkage to cancer registries and vital statistics databases. Setting: 15 screening centres in six Canadian provinces,1980-85 (Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta, and British Columbia). Participants: 89 835 women, aged 40-59, randomly assigned to mammography (five annual mammography screens) or control (no mammography). Interventions: Women aged 40-49 in the mammography arm and all women aged 50-59 in both arms received annual physical breast examinations. Women aged 40-49 in the control arm received a single examination followed by usual care in the community. Main outcome measure: Deaths from breast cancer. Results: During the five year screening period, 666 invasive breast cancers were diagnosed in the mammography arm (n=44 925 participants) and 524 in the controls (n=44 910), and of these, 180 women in the mammography arm and 171 women in the control arm died of breast cancer during the 25 year follow-up period. The overall hazard ratio for death from breast cancer diagnosed during the screening period associated with mammography was 1.05 (95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.30). The findings for women aged 40-49 and 50-59 were almost identical. During the entire study period, 3250 women in the mammography arm and 3133 in the control arm had a diagnosis of breast cancer, and 500 and 505, respectively, died of breast cancer. Thus the cumulative mortality from breast cancer was similar between women in the mammography arm and in the control arm (hazard ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 1.12). After 15 years of follow-up a residual excess of 106 cancers was observed in the mammography arm, attributable to over-diagnosis. Conclusion: Annual mammography in women aged 40-59 does not reduce mortality from breast cancer beyond that of physical examination or usual care when adjuvant therapy for breast cancer is freely available. Overall, 22% (106/484) of screen detected invasive breast cancers were over-diagnosed, representing one over-diagnosed breast cancer for every 424 women who received mammography screening in the trial

Determining relative importance of variables in developing and validating predictive models

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Multiple regression models are used in a wide range of scientific disciplines and automated model selection procedures are frequently used to identify independent predictors. However, determination of relative importance of potential predictors and validating the fitted models for their stability, predictive accuracy and generalizability are often overlooked or not done thoroughly.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a case study aimed at predicting children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) who are at low risk of Tumor Lysis Syndrome (TLS), we propose and compare two strategies, bootstrapping and random split of data, for ordering potential predictors according to their relative importance with respect to model stability and generalizability. We also propose an approach based on relative increase in percentage of explained variation and area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for developing models where variables from our ordered list enter the model according to their importance. An additional data set aimed at identifying predictors of prostate cancer penetration is also used for illustrative purposes.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Age is chosen to be the most important predictor of TLS. It is selected 100% of the time using the bootstrapping approach. Using the random split method, it is selected 99% of the time in the training data and is significant (at 5% level) 98% of the time in the validation data set. This indicates that age is a stable predictor of TLS with good generalizability. The second most important variable is white blood cell count (WBC). Our methods also identified an important predictor of TLS that was otherwise omitted if relying on any of the automated model selection procedures alone. A group at low risk of TLS consists of children younger than 10 years of age, without T-cell immunophenotype, whose baseline WBC is < 20 × 10⁹/L and palpable spleen is < 2 cm. For the prostate cancer data set, the Gleason score and digital rectal exam are identified to be the most important indicators of whether tumor has penetrated the prostate capsule.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our model selection procedures based on bootstrap re-sampling and repeated random split techniques can be used to assess the strength of evidence that a variable is truly an independent and reproducible predictor. Our methods, therefore, can be used for developing stable and reproducible models with good performances. Moreover, our methods can serve as a good tool for validating a predictive model. Previous biological and clinical studies support the findings based on our selection and validation strategies. However, extensive simulations may be required to assess the performance of our methods under different scenarios as well as check their sensitivity to a random fluctuation in the data.</p

Antenatal Steroid Therapy for Fetal Lung Maturation and the Subsequent Risk of Childhood Asthma: A Longitudinal Analysis

This study was designed to test the hypothesis that fetal exposure to corticosteroids in the antenatal period is an independent risk factor for the development of asthma in early childhood with little or no effect in later childhood. A population-based cohort study of all pregnant women who resided in Nova Scotia, Canada, and gave birth to a singleton fetus between 1989 and 1998 was undertaken. After a priori specified exclusions, 80,448 infants were available for analysis. Using linked health care utilization records, incident asthma cases developed after 36 months of age were identified. Extended Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios while controlling for confounders. Exposure to corticosteroids during pregnancy was associated with a risk of asthma in childhood between 3–5 years of age: adjusted hazard ratio of 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.39), with no association noted after 5 years of age: adjusted hazard ratio for 5–7 years was 1.06 (95% confidence interval: 0.86, 1.30) and for 8 or greater years was 0.74 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 1.03). Antenatal steroid therapy appears to be an independent risk factor for the development of asthma between 3 and 5 years of age

Verifying a questionnaire diagnosis of asthma in children using health claims data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Childhood asthma prevalence is widely measured by parental proxy report of physician-diagnosed asthma in questionnaires. Our objective was to validate this measure in a North American population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The 2884 study participants were a subsample of 5619 school children aged 5 to 9 years from 231 schools participating in the Toronto Child Health Evaluation Questionnaire study in 2006. We compared agreement between "questionnaire diagnosis" and a previously validated "health claims data diagnosis". Sensitivity, specificity and kappa were calculated for the questionnaire diagnosis using the health claims diagnosis as the reference standard.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Prevalence of asthma was 15.7% by questionnaire and 21.4% by health claims data. Questionnaire diagnosis was insensitive (59.0%) but specific (95.9%) for asthma. When children with asthma-related symptoms were excluded, the sensitivity increased (83.6%), and specificity remained high (93.6%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results show that parental report of asthma by questionnaire has low sensitivity but high specificity as an asthma prevalence measure. In addition, children with "asthma-related symptoms" may represent a large fraction of under-diagnosed asthma and they should be excluded from the inception cohort for risk factor studies.</p

Can an evidence-based guideline reminder card improve asthma management in the emergency department?

SummaryObjectiveAsthma is the most common chronic disease in children. Previous studies described significant variations in acute asthma management in children. This study was conducted to examine whether asthma management in the pediatric emergency department (ED) was improved through the use of an evidence-based acute asthma care guideline reminder card.MethodsThe Pediatric Acute Asthma Management Guideline (PAMG) was introduced to the ED of a pediatric tertiary care hospital in Ontario, Canada. Medical charts of 278 retrospective ED visits (January–December 2002) and 154 prospective visits (July 2003–June 2004) were reviewed to assess changes in acute asthma management such as medication treatment, asthma education, and discharge planning. Logistic and linear regressions were used to determine the effect of PAMG on asthma management in the ED. The propensity score method was used to adjust for confounding.ResultsDuring the implementation of PAMG, patients who visited the ED were more likely to receive oral corticosteroids (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.63–3.14, p < 0.0001) and oxygen saturation reassessment before ED discharge (AOR = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.45–2.82, p < 0.0001). They also received 0.23 (95% CI: 0.03–0.44, p = 0.0283) more doses of bronchodilator in the first hour of ED stay. Improvements in asthma education and discharge planning were noted, but the changes were not statistically significant.ConclusionsAfter the implementation of an evidence-based guideline reminder card, medication treatment for acute asthma in the ED was significantly improved; however, asthma education and discharge planning remained unchanged. Future efforts on promoting guideline-based practice in the ED should focus on these components

Risk of asthma in children diagnosed with bronchiolitis during infancy: Protocol of a longitudinal cohort study linking emergency department-based clinical data to provincial health administrative databases

Introduction The Canadian Bronchiolitis Epinephrine Steroid Trial (CanBEST) and the Bronchiolitis Severity Cohort (BSC) study enrolled infants with bronchiolitis during the first year of life. The CanBEST trial suggested that treatment of infants with a combined therapy of high-dose corticosteroids and nebulised epinephrine reduced the risk of admission to hospital. Our study aims to - (1) quantify the risk of developing asthma by age 5 and 10 years in children treated with high-dose corticosteroid and epinephrine for bronchiolitis during infancy, (2) identify risk factors associated with development of asthma in children with bronchiolitis during infancy, (3) develop asthma prediction models for children diagnosed with bronchiolitis during infancy. Methods and analysis We propose a longitudinal cohort study in which we will link data from the CanBEST and BSC study with routinely collected data from provincial health administrative databases. Our outcome is asthma incidence measured using a validated health administrative data algorithm. Primary exposure will be treatment with a combined therapy of high-dose corticosteroids and nebulised epinephrine for bronchiolitis. Covariates will include type of viral pathogen, disease severity, medication use, maternal, prenatal, postnatal and demographic factors and variables related to health service utilisation for acute lower respiratory tract infection. The risk associated with development of asthma in children treated with high-dose corticosteroid and epinephrine for bronchiolitis will be assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. Prediction models will be developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis and internally validated using a bootstrap approach. Ethics and dissemination Our study has been approved by the ethics board of all four participating sites of the CanBEST and BSC study. Finding of the study will be disseminated to the academic community and relevant stakeholders through conferences and peer-reviewed publications. Trial registration number ISRCTN56745572; Post-results