Conflict shapes in flux: explaining spatial shift in conflict-related violence

In contemporary armed conflict, the spatiality of violence and the constellation of actors involved in it change frequently, but how these changes affect one another remains poorly understood. What explains the spatial shift of areas affected by violence in multi-actor conflicts? We argue that the emergence of a new dominant conflict actor facilitates a shift in conflict-related violence. We theorize the causal mechanism as ‘low-risk/high-opportunity attraction’. It exists in territories where these actors can draw on a local support base and enhance capacities to engage in violence. To demonstrate our theory’s validity, we conduct two plausibility probes: on the conflict in Colombia paired with the conflict in the Lake Chad region, and on the conflict in the Afghan–Pakistani borderlands paired with the conflict in Iraq/Syria. We adopt a mixed-methods approach integrating visualizations, spatial analysis, network analysis and process tracing, drawing, inter alia, on interviews from remote regions of war-torn Colombia and Iraq

Mapping premodern small war: the case of the Thirty Years War (1618-48)

The example of the Thirty Years War (1618–48) demonstrates that small war was already integral to the conduct of premodern hostilities. Commanders employed these methods with a purpose and generally tried to limit the accompanying violence to preserve discipline and effectiveness, as well as their claims to be waging a just war. We explain why conventional histories have neglected the presence of small war in premodernity, and show how its importance, methods, and wider impact can be reconstructed through innovative digital mapping techniques, which have the potential to be applied to conflicts in other times and places

Explaining conflict violence in terms of conflict actor dynamics

We study the severity of conflict-related violence in Colombia at an unprecedented granular scale in space and across time. Splitting the data into different geographical regions and different historically-relevant periods, we uncover variations in the patterns of conflict severity which we then explain in terms of local conflict actors' different collective behaviors and/or conditions using a simple mathematical model of conflict actors' grouping dynamics (coalescence and fragmentation). Specifically, variations in the approximate scaling values of the distributions of event lethalities can be explained by the changing strength ratio of the local conflict actors for distinct conflict eras and organizational regions. In this way, our findings open the door to a new granular spectroscopy of human conflicts in terms of local conflict actor strength ratios for any armed conflict

Circulatory osteoprotegerin is related to osteoporosis of the hip in patients with COPD

SummaryBackgroundOsteoprotegerin (OPG), a potent inhibitor of osteoclastogenesis, decreases bone resorption and has protective effects on bone mineral density (BMD). Recently we have shown that the adipose-tissue derived OPG relates to BMD in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a condition associated with increased risk of osteoporosis.ObjectiveHere we aimed to investigate the potential of circulatory OPG to reflect hip BMD in patients with COPD.Patients and methodsIn 56 subjects with COPD [age, 61.7 ± 6.7 years; forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), 53.6 ± 19.2% predicted], total femur BMD was assessed by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry, serum OPG and β-crosslaps, a marker of increased bone resorption, by commercially available assays.ResultsFrom patients with normal hip BMD (n = 32, T-score 0.1 ± 0.8) to those with osteopenia (n = 14, T-score −1.6 ± 0.4) and osteoporosis (n = 10, T-score −3.4 ± 0.7) serum OPG levels significantly increased (6.6 ± 1.8 versus 7.2 ± 2.9 and versus 8.6 ± 1.5 pmol/l, p = 0.036). In addition, hip T-scores were directly related to FEV1, and inversely to β-crosslaps (R = 0.40, p = 0.002; R = 0.38, p = 0.01, respectively). In multivariate analysis, OPG independently predicted hip T-scores after adjustments for age, gender, FEV1, and β-crosslaps (p = 0.011, adjusted R2 = 0.354). Area under receiver operator curve for OPG as a discriminator of osteoporosis was 0.787 (95% CI, 0.653–0.921) (p = 0.005).ConclusionsPresent results suggest that osteoporosis of the hip is associated with increased circulatory levels of OPG in patients with COPD. OPG might serve as a biomarker of this COPD-related comorbidity

Psychological distress in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea:The role of hostility and coping self-efficacy

We aimed to assess whether hostility and coping self-efficacy are associated with psychological distress in obstructive sleep apnoea patients. Furthermore, we examined whether coping self-efficacy mediates the association between hostility and psychological distress. We included 150 obstructive sleep apnoea patients (Apnoea-Hypopnoea Index > 5; 68% male; mean age: 48.9 +/- 9.5 years). Regression models showed that hostility and poor coping self-efficacy were strongly associated with psychological distress in obstructive sleep apnoea patients. All assessed coping self-efficacy dimensions mediated the association between hostility and psychological distress. Coping self-efficacy for stopping unpleasant emotions and thoughts showed the strongest association with a lower level of psychological distress

Quality of life of obstructive sleep apnoea patients receiving continuous positive airway pressure treatment:A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Previous studies have shown conflicting results on the effect of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) on quality of life (QoL) in obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) patients. Objectives: To evaluate the effect of CPAP on QoL in OSA patients compared to sham CPAP, placebo pills, and conservative treatment. Methods: Studies were identified via Web of Knowledge, PubMed, PsychInfo, CINAHL, EMBASE, OpenGrey, and the Cochrane Library. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the findings. Results: Meta-analysis of 13 randomised controlled trials showed no significant differences in overall and psychological QoL comparing values of CPAP treated patients with controls; however, physical QoL improved. CPAP significantly affected the overall QoL in studies with controls receiving sham CPAP, parallel design, low risk of bias, and mild OSA patients. Conclusion: CPAP treatment may help to improve physical symptoms of OSA, whereas impaired psychological QoL still cannot be alleviated

Suicidal ideation in patients with obstructive sleep apnoea and its relationship with disease severity, sleep-related problems and social support

We aimed to assess the prevalence of suicidal ideation and to examine the relationships between obstructive sleep apnoea severity, sleep-related problems, social support and suicidal ideation in obstructive sleep apnoea patients. We included 149 patients (68% male; mean age, 48.99 +/- 9.57 years) with diagnosed obstructive sleep apnoea (Apnoea-Hypopnoea Index > 5) based on full-night polysomnography. The prevalence of suicidal ideation among obstructive sleep apnoea patients was 20.1 per cent. Structural equation modelling showed that suicidal ideation in obstructive sleep apnoea was strongly related to poor sleep quality and high fatigue levels. No relationship between social support and suicidal ideation in obstructive sleep apnoea patients was found