RELATIVE PRICE DYNAMICS AND MONETARY POLICY: EVIDENCE FROM DIRECTED GRAPHS

This paper examines the dynamic relationship between monetary policy variables and agricultural prices using alternative VAR-type model specifications. Time series techniques as currently specified in most studies raises issues of misspecification and inferential adequacy because observational (non-experimental) data are being analyzed by estimations techniques better suited for experimental data. Directed graph theory is proposed as an alternative modeling approach to supplement current methods of analyzing agricultural time series.Financial Economics,

Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Agricultural Prices

Existing empirical evidence on the impact of macroeconomic variables on agriculture remains mixed and inconclusive. This paper re-examines the dynamic relationship between monetary policy variables and agricultural prices using alternative vector autoregression (VAR) type model specifications. Directed acyclic graph theory is proposed as an alternative modeling approach to supplement existing modeling methods. Similar to results in other studies, this study’s findings show that over the time period analyzed (1975–2000), changes to money supply as a monetary policy tool had little or no impact on agricultural prices. The primary macroeconomic policy instrument that affects agricultural prices is the exchange rate, which is shown to be directly linked to interest rate, a source of monetary policy shock.agricultural prices, cointegration, directed acyclic graphs, monetary policy, VAR, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis,

EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND U.S. POULTRY EXPORTS: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA

Very little research exists on the potential impact of exchange rate volatility on agricultural trade. This paper evaluates the effects of exchange rate volatility on U.S. poultry exports using the gravity model on panel data. We find that exchange rate volatility has a negative effect on the U.S. poultry export but only statistically significant for the model in which we use the variance of spot exchange rate as the measurements. Consistent with previous studies, foreign incomes are also a very important determinant of poultry trade.exchange rates, volatility, agricultural trade, poultry exports, panel data, International Relations/Trade,

Do Stronger Intellectual Property Rights Protection Induce More Bilateral Trade? Evidence from China's Imports

Most of the previous studies on the effect of IPR protection on international trade have been from the perspective of major industrialized nations. However, much of the current debate on the effects of IPR protection involves large developing countries with high threat of imitation. This study contributes to the literature by analyzing the impact of the strengthening of patent laws in China on its bilateral trade flows. We estimate the effects of patent rights protection on China’s imports at the aggregate and detailed product categories for both OECD (developed) and non-OECD (developing) countries. The empirical results suggest that increased patent rights protection stimulate China’s imports, particularly in the knowledge-intensive product categories. Furthermore, while the evidence in support of the market expansion effect is significant for imports from OECD countries, it is rather weak and mostly insignificant for imports from non-OECD countries.Intellectual property rights, patent laws, international trade, International Relations/Trade, F13, 034,

THE CAUSAL STRUCTURE OF LAND PRICE DETERMINANTS

This paper investigates causation contemporaneously and over time to elucidate the persistent lack of agreement about what "causes" changes in farmland prices. Using recently developed causal modeling framework of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and cointegrated (VAR) techniques, the assumed causal structures of existing structural and empirical models are tested directly. The results validate concerns about the nonstationarity of these series. Land price changes are found to respond to a small subset of the oft-cited causes of price change, including macroeconomic variables.Land Economics/Use,

"Does foreign intellectual property rights protection affect U.S. exports and FDI?"

Using GMM models on a panel data of fifty-three countries, we examine whether stronger foreign IPR protection stimulates international transactions of U.S. multinational firms. The empirical results suggest that foreign countries that strengthen their IPR protection, especially those with strong imitative ability, can attract more international transactions from U.S. multinational firms.export, FDI, intellectual property rights, GMM

Editors' Note

Marketing,

Vector Autoregressions, Policy Analysis, and Directed Acyclic Graphs: An Application to the U.S. Economy

The paper considers the use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), and their construction from observational data with PC-algorithm TETRAD II, in providing over-identifying restrictions on the innovations from a vector autoregression. Results from Sims’ 1986 model of the US economy are replicated and compared using these data-driven techniques. The directed graph results show Sims’ six-variable VAR is not rich enough to provide an unambiguous ordering at usual levels of statistical significance. A significance level in the neighborhood of 30 % is required to find a clear structural ordering. Although the DAG results are in agreement with Sims’ theory-based model for unemployment, differences are noted for the other five variables: income, money supply, price level, interest rates, and investment. Overall the DAG results are broadly consistent with a monetarist view with adaptive expectations and no hyperinflation.vector autoregression; directed graphs; policy analysis

Foreign political instability and U.S. agricultural exports: evidence from panel data

The intent of this paper is to examine the impact of political instability in importing nations on U.S. agricultural trade. A panel data set representing eighty-seven importing countries covering the 1990-2000 period was used to investigate how the degree of democratic practices and three types of political instability (violent, social, and elite) affect U.S agricultural exports. The empirical results suggest that political instability do have a statistically significant effect on U.S. agricultural export demand.agricultural trade