Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns

Firm size and book-to-market ratios are both highly correlated with the returns of common stocks. Fama and French (1993) have argued that the association between these firm characteristics and their stock returns arises because size and book-to-market ratios are proxies for non-diversifiable factor risk. In contrast, the evidence in this paper indicates that the return premia on small capitalization and high book-to-market stocks does not arise because of the co-movements of these stocks with pervasive factors. It is the firm characteristics and not the covariance structure of returns that explain the cross-sectional variation in stock returns.

Market Reactions to Tangible and Intangible Information

We decompose stock returns into components attributable to tangible and intangible information. A firm's tangible return is the component of its return attributable to fundamental accounting-performance information, and its intangible return is the component which is orthogonal to this information. Our evidence indicates that intangible information reliably predicts future stock returns. However, in contrast to previous research, we find that tangible returns have no forecasting power. The premia associated with intangible information pose challenges for both traditional asset pricing models and models based on psychological factors.

Profitability of Momentum Strategies: An Evaluation of Alternative Explanations

This paper evaluates various explanations for the profitability of momentum strategies documented in Jegadeesh and Titman (1993). The evidence indicates that momentum profits have continued in the 1990's suggesting that the original results were not a product of data snooping bias. The paper also examines the predictions of recent behavioral models that propose that momentum profits are due to delayed overreactions which are eventually reversed. Our evidence provides support for the behavioral models, but this support should be tempered with caution. Although we find no evidence of significant return reversals in the 2 to 3 years following the following formation date, there are significant return reversals 4 to 5 years after the formation date. Our analysis of post-hiding period returns sharply rejects a claim in the literature that the observed momentum profits can be explained completely by the cross-sectional dispersion in expected returns.

Debt and Corporate Performance: Evidence from Unsuccessful Takeovers

This paper examines how debt affects firms following failed takeovers. Using a sample of 573 unsuccessful takeovers, we find that, on average, targets significantly increase their debt levels. Targets that increase their debt levels more than the median amount reduce their levels of capital expenditures, sell off assets, reduce employment, increase focus and increase their operating cash flows. These leverage-increasing targets also realize superior stock price performance over the five years following the failed takeover. In contrast, those firms that increase their leverage the least show insignificant changes in their level of investment and their operating cash flows and realize stock price performance that is no different than their benchmarks. Those failed targets that increase their leverage the least, and fail to get taken over in the future, realize significant negative stock returns following their initial failed takeovers. The evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that debt helps firms remain independent not because it entrenches managers, but because it commits the manager to making the improvements that would be made by potential raiders.

Firms' Histories and Their Capital Structures

This paper examines how cash flows, investment expenditures and stock price histories affect corporate debt ratios. Consistent with earlier work, we find that these variables have a substantial influence on changes in capital structure. Specifically, stock price changes and financial deficits (i.e., the amount of external capital raised) have strong influences on capital structure changes, but in contrast to previous conclusions, we find that their effects are subsequently at least partially reversed. These results indicate that although a firm's history strongly influence their capital structures, that over time, financing choices tend to move firms towards target debt ratios that are consistent with the tradeoff theories of capital structure.

Timing of pair formation and male acquisition of alternate plumage by three wintering dabbling ducks

Pair formation in ducks is thought to be influenced by the acquisition of breeding plumage, the occurrence of courtship display, or both. We examined the frequency of pair formation in Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), Green-winged Teal (Anas crecca carolinensis), and Northern Shoveler (Spatula clypeata) in the central valley of California in relation to the frequencies of male attainment of breeding plumage and courtship display. Predictions related to two hypotheses are: (1) the timing of pair formation is directly related to the attainment of breeding (definitive alternate) plumage by males, and (2) frequencies of courtship display are highest during pair formation. Most female Mallard were paired by the end of October, with >80% in pairs by early December. Of Northern Shoveler, 90% were paired by early January and 90% of female Green-winged Teal were paired by early February. The highest rates of courtship display by Mallard were observed during October through November, by Northern Shoveler in November, and by Green-winged Teal in November through January. Courtship display was, therefore, relatively frequent at the same time as pair formation for all three species. Northern Shoveler spent less time in courtship display than the other two species. Most (90%) male Mallard had acquired alternate plumage by mid-November, Northern Shoveler by early February, and Green-winged Teal by mid-December. Thus, timing of pair formation coincided with timing of attainment of breeding plumage in Mallard and Green-winged Teal but not Northern Shoveler

Equilibrium Exhaustible Resource Price Dynamics

We develop equilibrium models of an exhaustible resource market where both prices and extraction choices are determined endogenously. Our analysis highlights a role for adjustment costs in generating price dynamics that are consistent with observed oil and gas forward prices as well as with the two-factor prices processes that were calibrated in Schwartz and Smith (2000). Stochastic volatility aries in our two-factor model as a natural consequence of production for oil and natural gas prices. Differences between the endogenous price processes considered in earlier papers can generate significant differences in both financial and real option values.

Stakeholder, Transparency and Capital Structure

Firms that are more highly levered are forced to raise capital more often, a process that generates information about them. Of course transparency can improve the allocation of capital. However, when the information about the firm affects the terms under which the firm transacts with its customers and employees, transparency can have an offsetting negative effect. Under relatively general conditions, good news improves these terms of trade less than bad news worsens them, implying that increased transparency can lower firm value. In addition, we show that transparency can reduce the incentives of firms and stakeholders to undertake relationship specific investments. The negative effects of transparency can lead firms to pass up positive NPV investments that require external funding and to choose more conservative capital structures that they would otherwise choose. These effects should be especially important for technology firms that require a reputation for being on the leading edge.'

Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns in Japan: Factors or Characteristics?

Japanese stock returns are even more closely related to their book-to-market ratios than are their U.S. counterparts, and thus provide a good setting for testing whether the return premia associated with these characteristics arise because the characteristics are proxies for covariance with priced factors. Our tests, which replicate the Daniel and Titman (1997) tests on a Japanese sample, reject the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model but fails to reject the characteristic model.