Impact of climate change on water resources of upper Kharun catchment in Chhattisgarh, India

Study region The Upper Kharun Catchment (UKC) is one of the most important, economically sound and highly populated watersheds of Chhattisgarh state in India. The inhabitants strongly depend on monsoon and are severely prone to water stress. Study focus This research aims to assess the impact of climate change on water balance components. New hydrological insights for the region The station-level bias-corrected PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies) projections generally show increasing trends for annual rainfall and temperature. Hydrological simulations, performed by SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), indicate over-proportional runoff-rainfall and under-proportional percolation-rainfall relationships. Simulated annual discharge for 2020s will decrease by 2.9% on average (with a decrease of 25.9% for q1 to an increase by 23.6% for q14); for 2050s an average increase by 12.4% (17.6% decrease for q1 to 39.4% increase for q0); for 2080s an average increase of 39.5% (16.3% increase for q1 to an increase of 63.7% for q0). Respective ranges on percolation: for 2020s an average decrease by 0.8% (12.8% decrease for q1 to an increase of 8.7% for q14); for 2050s an average increase by 2.5% (10.3% decrease for q1 to 15.4% increase for q0); for 2080s an average increase by 7.5% (0.3% decrease for q1 to 13.7% increase for q0). These over- and under-proportional relationships indicate future enhancement of floods and question sufficiency of groundwater recharge. Abbreviations ARS, Agricultural Research Service; ZEF, Center for Development Research; CGCOST, Chhattisgarh Council of Science and Technology; GCM, General Circulation Model; DAAD, German Academic Exchange Service; IITM, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology; IMK-IFU, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research; IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; KIT, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index; PRECIS, Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies; RCM, Regional Climate Model; SWAT, Soil and Water Assessment Tool; USDA, United States Department of Agriculture; UKC, Upper Kharun Catchmen

Evaluating the skill of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for discharge simulation in sparsely-gauged basins in Nigeria

Predictive hydrologic modelling to understand and support agricultural water resources management and food security policies in Nigeria is a demanding task due to the paucity of hydro-meteorological measurements. This study assessed the skill of using different remotely sensed rainfall products in a multi-calibration framework for evaluating the performance of the mesoscale hydrologic Model (mHM) across four different data-scarce basins in Nigeria. Grid-based rainfall estimates obtained from several sources were used to drive the mHM in different basins in Nigeria. Model calibration was first performed using only discharge records, and also by using a combination of discharge and actual evapotranspiration, forced with different rainfall products. The mHM forced with CHIRPS produced reasonable Kling-Gupta efficiency KGE) results (0.5&gt; KGE &lt;0.85) under both calibration frameworks. However, constraining model parameters under a multi-calibration arrangement showed no significant discharge simulation improvement in this study. Results show the utility of the mHM for discharge simulation in data-sparse basins in Nigeria.</p

A search for time-dependent astrophysical neutrino emission with IceCube data from 2012 to 2017

High-energy neutrinos are unique messengers of the high-energy universe, tracing the processes of cosmic-ray acceleration. This paper presents analyses focusing on time-dependent neutrino point-source searches. A scan of the whole sky, making no prior assumption about source candidates, is performed, looking for a space and time clustering of high-energy neutrinos in data collected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory between 2012 and 2017. No statistically significant evidence for a time-dependent neutrino signal is found with this search during this period since all results are consistent with the background expectation. Within this study period, the blazar 3C 279, showed strong variability, inducing a very prominent gamma-ray flare observed in 2015 June. This event motivated a dedicated study of the blazar, which consists of searching for a time-dependent neutrino signal correlated with the gamma-ray emission. No evidence for a time-dependent signal is found. Hence, an upper limit on the neutrino fluence is derived, allowing us to constrain a hadronic emission model

LeptonInjector and LeptonWeighter: A neutrino event generator and weighter for neutrino observatories

We present a high-energy neutrino event generator, called LeptonInjector, alongside an event weighter, called LeptonWeighter. Both are designed for large-volume Cherenkov neutrino telescopes such as IceCube. The neutrino event generator allows for quick and flexible simulation of neutrino events within and around the detector volume, and implements the leading Standard Model neutrino interaction processes relevant for neutrino observatories: neutrino-nucleon deep-inelastic scattering and neutrino-electron annihilation. In this paper, we discuss the event generation algorithm, the weighting algorithm, and the main functions of the publicly available code, with examples.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, 3 table

A muon-track reconstruction exploiting stochastic losses for large-scale Cherenkov detectors

IceCube is a cubic-kilometer Cherenkov telescope operating at the South Pole. The main goal of IceCube is the detection of astrophysical neutrinos and the identification of their sources. High-energy muon neutrinos are observed via the secondary muons produced in charge current interactions with nuclei in the ice. Currently, the best performing muon track directional reconstruction is based on a maximum likelihood method using the arrival time distribution of Cherenkov photons registered by the experiment's photomultipliers. A known systematic shortcoming of the prevailing method is to assume a continuous energy loss along the muon track. However at energies $>1$ TeV the light yield from muons is dominated by stochastic showers. This paper discusses a generalized ansatz where the expected arrival time distribution is parametrized by a stochastic muon energy loss pattern. This more realistic parametrization of the loss profile leads to an improvement of the muon angular resolution of up to $20\%$ for through-going tracks and up to a factor 2 for starting tracks over existing algorithms. Additionally, the procedure to estimate the directional reconstruction uncertainty has been improved to be more robust against numerical errors

Search for neutrino emission from cores of active galactic nuclei

The sources of the majority of the high-energy astrophysical neutrinos observed with the IceCube neutrino telescope at the South Pole are unknown. So far, only a flaring gamma-ray blazar was compellingly associated with the emission of high-energy neutrinos. However, several studies suggest that the neutrino emission from the gamma-ray blazar population only accounts for a small fraction of the total astrophysical neutrino flux. In this work we probe the production of high-energy neutrinos in the cores of active galactic nuclei (AGN), induced by accelerated cosmic rays in the accretion disk region. We present a likelihood analysis based on eight years of IceCube data, searching for a cumulative neutrino signal from three AGN samples created for this work. The neutrino emission is assumed to be proportional to the accretion disk luminosity estimated from the soft x-ray flux. Next to the observed soft x-ray flux, the objects for the three samples have been selected based on their radio emission and infrared color properties. For the largest sample in this search, an excess of high-energy neutrino events with respect to an isotropic background of atmospheric and astrophysical neutrinos is found, corresponding to a post-trial significance of 2.60σ. If interpreted as a genuine signal with the assumptions of a proportionality of x-ray and neutrino fluxes and a model for the subthreshold flux distribution, then this observation implies that at 100 TeV, 27%–100% of the observed neutrinos arise from particle acceleration in the core of AGN at 1σ confidence interval

Improved Characterization of the Astrophysical Muon–neutrino Flux with 9.5 Years of IceCube Data

We present a measurement of the high-energy astrophysical muon–neutrino flux with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The measurement uses a high-purity selection of 650k neutrino-induced muon tracks from the northern celestial hemisphere, corresponding to 9.5 yr of experimental data. With respect to previous publications, the measurement is improved by the increased size of the event sample and the extended model testing beyond simple power-law hypotheses. An updated treatment of systematic uncertainties and atmospheric background fluxes has been implemented based on recent models. The best-fit single power-law parameterization for the astrophysical energy spectrum results in a normalization of ${\phi }_{@100\mathrm{TeV}}^{{\nu }_{\mu }+{\bar{\nu }}_{\mu }}={1.44}_{-0.26}^{+0.25}\times {10}^{-18}\,{\mathrm{GeV}}^{-1}{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2}{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}{\mathrm{sr}}^{-1}$ and a spectral index ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{SPL}}={2.37}_{-0.09}^{+0.09}$, constrained in the energy range from 15 TeV to 5 PeV. The model tests include a single power law with a spectral cutoff at high energies, a log-parabola model, several source-class-specific flux predictions from the literature, and a model-independent spectral unfolding. The data are consistent with a single power-law hypothesis, however, spectra with softening above one PeV are statistically more favorable at a two-sigma level

Improved Characterization of the Astrophysical Muon–neutrino Flux with 9.5 Years of IceCube Data

We present a measurement of the high-energy astrophysical muon–neutrino flux with the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The measurement uses a high-purity selection of 650k neutrino-induced muon tracks from the northern celestial hemisphere, corresponding to 9.5 yr of experimental data. With respect to previous publications, the measurement is improved by the increased size of the event sample and the extended model testing beyond simple power-law hypotheses. An updated treatment of systematic uncertainties and atmospheric background fluxes has been implemented based on recent models. The best-fit single power-law parameterization for the astrophysical energy spectrum results in a normalization of ${\phi }_{@100\mathrm{TeV}}^{{\nu }_{\mu }+{\bar{\nu }}_{\mu }}={1.44}_{-0.26}^{+0.25}\times {10}^{-18}\,{\mathrm{GeV}}^{-1}{\mathrm{cm}}^{-2}{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}{\mathrm{sr}}^{-1}$ and a spectral index ${\gamma }_{\mathrm{SPL}}={2.37}_{-0.09}^{+0.09}$, constrained in the energy range from 15 TeV to 5 PeV. The model tests include a single power law with a spectral cutoff at high energies, a log-parabola model, several source-class-specific flux predictions from the literature, and a model-independent spectral unfolding. The data are consistent with a single power-law hypothesis, however, spectra with softening above one PeV are statistically more favorable at a two-sigma level

Search for High-energy Neutrino Emission from Galactic X-Ray Binaries with IceCube

We present the first comprehensive search for high-energy neutrino emission from high- and low-mass X-ray binaries conducted by IceCube. Galactic X-ray binaries are long-standing candidates for the source of Galactic hadronic cosmic rays and neutrinos. The compact object in these systems can be the site of cosmic-ray acceleration, and neutrinos can be produced by interactions of cosmic rays with radiation or gas, in the jet of a microquasar, in the stellar wind, or in the atmosphere of the companion star. We study X-ray binaries using 7.5 yr of IceCube data with three separate analyses. In the first, we search for periodic neutrino emission from 55 binaries in the Northern Sky with known orbital periods. In the second, the X-ray light curves of 102 binaries across the entire sky are used as templates to search for time-dependent neutrino emission. Finally, we search for time-integrated emission of neutrinos for a list of 4 notable binaries identified as microquasars. In the absence of a significant excess, we place upper limits on the neutrino flux for each hypothesis and compare our results with theoretical predictions for several binaries. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of the next generation neutrino telescope at the South Pole, IceCube-Gen2, and demonstrate its power to identify potential neutrino emission from these binary sources in the Galaxy

All-flavor constraints on nonstandard neutrino interactions and generalized matter potential with three years of IceCube DeepCore data

We report constraints on nonstandard neutrino interactions (NSI) from the observation of atmospheric neutrinos with IceCube, limiting all individual coupling strengths from a single dataset. Furthermore, IceCube is the first experiment to constrain flavor-violating and nonuniversal couplings simultaneously. Hypothetical NSI are generically expected to arise due to the exchange of a new heavy mediator particle. Neutrinos propagating in matter scatter off fermions in the forward direction with negligible momentum transfer. Hence the study of the matter effect on neutrinos propagating in the Earth is sensitive to NSI independently of the energy scale of new physics. We present constraints on NSI obtained with an all-flavor event sample of atmospheric neutrinos based on three years of IceCube DeepCore data. The analysis uses neutrinos arriving from all directions, with reconstructed energies between 5.6 GeV and 100 GeV. We report constraints on the individual NSI coupling strengths considered singly, allowing for complex phases in the case of flavor-violating couplings. This demonstrates that IceCube is sensitive to the full NSI flavor structure at a level competitive with limits from the global analysis of all other experiments. In addition, we investigate a generalized matter potential, whose overall scale and flavor structure are also constrained