Effectiveness of low speed autonomous emergency braking in real-world rear-end crashes

This study set out to evaluate the effectiveness of low speed autonomous emergency braking (AEB) technology in current model passenger vehicles, based on real-world crash experience. The Validating Vehicle Safety through Meta-Analysis (VVSMA) group comprising a collaboration of government, industry consumer organisations and researchers, pooled data from a number of countries using a standard analysis format and the established MUND approach. Induced exposure methods were adopted to control for any extraneous effects. The findings showed a 38 percent overall reduction in rear-end crashes for vehicles fitted with AEB compared to a comparison sample of similar vehicles. There was no statistical evidence of any difference in effect between urban (≤60km/h) and rural (>60km/h) speed zones. Areas requiring further research were identified and widespread fitment through the vehicle fleet is recommended

Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

Background: Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. Methods. Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. Results: Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. Conclusions: Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come

Competition, R&D and Innovation: Testing the Inverted-U in a Simultaneous System

To address the relationship between innovation and competition we jointly estimate the opportunity, production, and impact functions of innovation in a simultaneous system. Based on Swiss micro-data, we apply a 3-SLS system estimation. The findings confirm a robust inverted-U relationship, in which a rise in the number of competitors at low levels of initial competition increases the firm's research effort, but at a diminishing rate, and the research effort ultimately decreases at high levels of competition. When we split the sample by firm types, the inverted-U shape is steeper for creative firms than for adaptive ones. The numerical solution indicates three particular configurations of interest: 1. an uncontested monopoly with low innovation, 2. low competition with high innovation, and 3. a "no innovation trap" at very high levels of competition. The distinction between solution 1. and 2. corresponds to Arrow's positive effect of competition on innovation, whereas the difference between outcomes 2. and 3. captures Schumpeter's positive effect of market power on innovation. Simulating changes of the exogenous variables, technology potential, demand growth, firm size and exports have a positive impact on innovation, while foreign ownership has a negative effect, and higher appropriability has a positive impact on the number of competitors

The Correlation Between Pedestrian Injury Severity in Real-Life Crashes and Euro NCAP Pedestrian Test Results

Objective: The aim of the present study was to estimate the correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian rating scores and injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes, with special focus on long-term disability. Another aim was to determine whether brake assist (BA) systems affect the injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes and to estimate the combined effects in injury reduction of a high Euro NCAP ranking score and BA. Methods: In the current study, the Euro NCAP pedestrian scoring was compared with the real-life outcome in pedestrian crashes that occurred in Sweden during 2003 to 2010. The real-life crash data were obtained from the data acquisition system Swedish Traffic Accident Data Acquisition (STRADA), which combines police records and hospital admission data. The medical data consisted of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) diagnoses and Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) scoring. In all, approximately 500 pedestrians submitted to hospital were included in the study. Each car model was coded according to Euro NCAP pedestrian scores. In addition, the presence or absence of BA was coded for each car involved. Cars were grouped according to their scoring. Injury outcomes were analyzed with AIS and, at the victim level, with permanent medical impairment. This was done by translating the injury scores for each individual to the risk of serious consequences (RSC) at 1, 5, and 10 percent risk of disability level. This indicates the total risk of a medical disability for each victim, given the severity and location of injuries. The mean RSC (mRSC) was then calculated for each car group and t-tests were conducted to falsify the null hypothesis at p <= .05 that the mRSC within the groups was equal. Results: The results showed a significant reduction of injury severity for cars with better pedestrian scoring, although cars with a high score could not be studied due to lack of cases. The reduction in RSC for medium-performing cars in comparison with low-performing cars was 17, 26, and 38 percent for 1, 5, and 10 percent of medical impairment, respectively. These results applied to urban areas with speed limits up to 50 km/h, although no significant reduction was found in higher speed zones. Regarding cars with BA, the null hypothesis could not be rejected at p = .05; hence, no significant results of injury reduction were found. Conclusions: A significant correlation between Euro NCAP pedestrian score and injury outcome in real-life car-to-pedestrian crashes was found. Injury reduction was found to be higher with increasing severity and level of permanent medical impairment. The difference between 1- and 2-star cars is 17 percent in mean risk of permanent medical impairment (mRSC) 1%+, 26 percent in mRSC 5%+, and 38 percent in mRSC 10%+ for crashes in speed zones up to 50 km/h. Brake assist was not found to provide a statistically significant injury reduction