Asymptotics in directed exponential random graph models with an increasing bi-degree sequence

Although asymptotic analyses of undirected network models based on degree sequences have started to appear in recent literature, it remains an open problem to study statistical properties of directed network models. In this paper, we provide for the first time a rigorous analysis of directed exponential random graph models using the in-degrees and out-degrees as sufficient statistics with binary as well as continuous weighted edges. We establish the uniform consistency and the asymptotic normality for the maximum likelihood estimate, when the number of parameters grows and only one realized observation of the graph is available. One key technique in the proofs is to approximate the inverse of the Fisher information matrix using a simple matrix with high accuracy. Numerical studies confirm our theoretical findings.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOS1343 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Analyses of celestial pole offsets with VLBI, LLR, and optical observations

This work aims to explore the possibilities of determining the long-period part of the precession-nutation of the Earth with techniques other than very long baseline interferometry (VLBI). Lunar laser ranging (LLR) is chosen for its relatively high accuracy and long period. Results of previous studies could be updated using the latest data with generally higher quality, which would also add ten years to the total time span. Historical optical data are also analyzed for their rather long time-coverage to determine whether it is possible to improve the current Earth precession-nutation model