The Future of Migration in the European Union: Future scenarios and tools to stimulate forward-looking discussions

This report presents trends that are likely to impact the future of migration in the European Union and delineates four possible future migration scenarios towards 2030. These narrative scenarios are then applied into a set of interactive tools that stimulate forward-looking and strategic discussions about migration and integration. The tools can be used to involve various actors that shape migration policymaking and research in constructive and non-divisive debates about these otherwise highly politicised matters. Whereas the 2030 migration scenarios are fairly general, the report offers examples of how they can be used to zoom-in on specific thematic areas such as foreign and security policy, labour market policies and integration policies and how to explore future implications of different migration developments on these policy areas. A group of invited experts contributed to the report with their take on how the four scenarios could play out in different parts of the world including the European Union, its neighbourhood, sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. The tools are included in the Migration discussion toolkit that constitutes the second part of this report. They are presented in a practical recipe-style format and are accompanied by templates and other visual aids that help facilitate discussions and harvest their outcomes.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Modelling, Behavioural Insights & Design for Polic

Power asymmetry between the European Union and Africa? A case study of the EU's relations with Ghana and Senegal

The EU's relationship with Africa is defined by power asymmetry, commonly characterised by a distribution of resources and capabilities across issue areas that almost always favour those at the top. Although asymmetry constrains weaker parties in identifying their preferences and the resources they can draw upon, in practise even in a situation of power asymmetry weaker actors can be successful in achieving their preferences. This thesis questions why some African countries have been able to exercise leverage and control vis-a-vis the EU despite power asymmetry. This question is answered through case studies of the EU's relations with Ghana and Senegal in three policy areas: aid, trade, and migration. The thesis adopts an empirical approach firstly to identify both parties' capacities and constraints in conducting relations, and secondly to establish the conditions under which African countries are able to fulfil their goals. As a foreign policy actor the EU faces institutional and political constraints which lead to gaps between policy rhetoric and practise, and between expectations and actual capabilities. This affects the EU's position vis-a-vis third parties and creates a disjunction between the EU's structural power and its actual bargaining power. Structurally weaker countries are able to influence the EU, firstly, because of how the perceptions they hold of the EU's constraints and capacities shape their own strategies, and secondly, because of the presence of certain contextual factors which favour or constrain the exercise of leverage and control. Senegal and Ghana are employed as case studies for the EU's relations with Africa. Although the socio-economic and political environment, the structural differences in power, and the EU's strategies are similar in both countries, Senegal has been more effective in promoting its interests than Ghana in relations with the EU. Senegal's perceptions of the EU's capabilities and constraints, the prevalence of 'ownership' and government 'control', and a strategic position have led to success in attaining its preferences and goals. Ghana's perceptions of apparent differences in structural power and mostly externally-driven policy processes have led it to adopt a more cooperative and consensual approach, weakening Ghana's ability to influence processes and outcomes vis-a-vis the EU. Leverage and control are therefore found in an actor's perception of its own power and that of others and in an environment where certain conditions favour weaker country influence, indicating that power is both relational and contextual

Scenario Exploration System: The future of migration in the EU and beyond

Joint Research Centre’s Scenario Exploration System is a serious game used to explore various future scenarios while taking up the roles of different stakeholders. The migration version of this game was developed during the project The Future of Migration in Europe. With this tool users can simulate what it feels like to have their say in migration policymaking as a policymaker, civil society or business representative, or a representative of the public opinion. Users also navigate various scenarios and can experience the constraints and opportunities they might face in interacting with different stakeholders and designing actions towards reaching long-term goals and objectives.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Behavioural Insights and Design for Polic

For-Know Repository: How can global trends be used in foresight? Expert workshop

The EU Policy Lab at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission (EC) organised a one-day workshop to pilot a foresight policy-engagement tool based on a set of global megatrends. The workshop was also used to gather the experience and good practice of foresight practitioners in engaging policy-makers and other stakeholders in long-term and systems-thinking processes. The workshop was held on 18 November 2016, at the EC premises, Rue Science 29, Brussels, Belgium, This report documents and illustrates the activities that took place during the workshop, taking stock of the results to support further development of the FOR-KNOW project, which aims to establish a repository of megatrends and a tool for using such trends in policy-making mainly at European level. As such, it does not describe all the insights captured during the workshop, Content gathered during the workshop will be further developed and ultimately feed the online format of the FOR-KNOW repository and other dissemination products of the project. The first section provides information about the JRC, the project itself and its policy context. The second and third sections present the workshop purpose, participants and an illustrated guide to the workshop process including the participants' feedback before we conclude in section four.JRC.I.2-Foresight, Behavioural Insights and Design for Polic

A comprehensive overview of genomic imprinting in breast and its deregulation in cancer

Genomic imprinting plays an important role in growth and development. Loss of imprinting (LOI) has been found in cancer, yet systematic studies are impeded by data-analytical challenges. We developed a methodology to detect monoallelically expressed loci without requiring genotyping data, and applied it on The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA, discovery) and Genotype-Tissue expression project (GTEx, validation) breast tissue RNA-seq data. Here, we report the identification of 30 putatively imprinted genes in breast. In breast cancer (TCGA), HM13 is featured by LOI and expression upregulation, which is linked to DNA demethylation. Other imprinted genes typically demonstrate lower expression in cancer, often associated with copy number variation and aberrant DNA methylation. Downregulation in cancer frequently leads to higher relative expression of the (imperfectly) silenced allele, yet this is not considered canonical LOI given the lack of (absolute) re-expression. In summary, our novel methodology highlights the massive deregulation of imprinting in breast cancer

Gaps and challenges in the knowledge of migration and demography: Proposals for new approaches and solutions

This report is the result of the research carried out under Task 5 of DG JRC's Task Force on Migration and Demography. The report is structured following the four pillars outlined in the European Agenda on Migration. A few additional chapters are included to cover some aspects not explicitly touched on in the Agenda, but still considered to have a relevant role in migration and an impact on demographic trends. Contributions answered the following questions: 1. What are main points/findings/debates concerning the priority area/sub-category allocated to you? 2. How does the information gathered in question 1 relate to the scope and the structure of the European Agenda on Migration? 3. What current information and data is available, who is producing it and how? 4. What and where are the main gaps and challenges? 5. What are the solutions or approaches to address these gaps and challenges based upon your research? To complement this review, two Annexes were created: the first being an overview of the main gaps and challenges as well as the suggested solutions for the whole report (Annex 1), and the second being a preliminary inventory of available migration data and data sources (Annex 2).JRC.E.6-Demography, Migration and Governanc

A game for all seasons: lessons and learnings from the JRC’s scenario exploration system

The European Commission Joint Research Centre’s (JRC) Scenario Exploration System (SES) is a foresight gaming system developed to facilitate the application of futures thinking to policy-making. It was originally geared at engaging EU policy-makers with scenarios in a facilitated process with a low learning curve. Specifically, the SES was designed to help participants, in less than three hours, to engage in systemic thinking with a long-term perspective and to explore alternative futures on specific issues and themes. When applied in various contexts, the SES proved to have a broader range of applications, which led to communities of practice emerging around the tool. Successful responses to various requests to apply the tool beyond its original focus demonstrated the versatility of the SES. Specifically, we discovered its ability to accommodate a large array of scenarios to discuss a very diverse range of issues. The experience accumulated through several adaptations of the SES allows the analysis of the various strengths and weaknesses of the tool as a platform for futures thinking and sharing more broadly the know-how for the creation and application of new versions. Ultimately, this article seeks to contribute a series of design suggestions for futures practitioners seeking to develop a playful mode of interaction with scenarios, or those seeking to repurpose the original SES system for use in their own project

European Union as an international actor

The study of the European Union (EU) as an international actor has expanded rapidly in the last 15 years. The early years of informal European Political Cooperation (EPC) amongst the Member States and the external relations of the then European Community (EC) in the 1970s through late the 1980s inspired little academic interest as the EU’s role in the world was limited and often undervalued. With the institutionalization of European foreign policymaking through the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) and later the European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) in the 1990s more scholars of European integration and International Relations especially, began to focus their efforts on understanding this newly visible international role of the EU. Yet the EU’s role as an international actor goes beyond merely the CFSP and the ESDP, it also includes policy areas such as development, environment, and trade. Furthermore, through these policies the EU has built up an extensive network of relations across the globe ranging from its immediate neighborhood and extending to Africa, Asia, Latin and North America. This bibliography provides an overview of the scholarly literature and academic debates that accompanied the evolution of the EU as an international actor. It seeks to examine the topic from historical, theoretical, and conceptual perspectives; provides a broad overview of the various EU policy areas with an external dimension; looks at the numerous geographical areas of the EU's external relations; and explores some newer avenues for research for better understanding the EU as an international actor