Understanding and quantifying uncertainty due to multiple biases in meta-analyses of observational studies

There has been considerable interest recently in quantifying uncertainty beyond that due to random error in meta-analyses. This is particularly relevant to meta-analyses of observational studies, since error in estimates from these studies cannot be attributed to a randomization mechanism. Typically, observational studies are also subject to error due to measurement error, non-participation, and incomplete adjustment for confounding. Errors due to these sources are often referred to as bias. To quantify uncertainty due to bias, researchers have proposed using "bias models" and giving subjectively elicited probability distributions to parameters that are not identifiable in the models. In a typical meta-analysis, probability distributions involving tens of parameters will have to be elicited. At the same time, the resulting estimate and uncertainty interval of the overall (meta-analytic) effect measure will generally be very sensitive to this multi-dimensional subjectively-elicited distribution. To overcome some of the problems associated with the use of such a distribution, I propose an alternative method for eliciting and quantifying uncertainty due to bias. In the method of this thesis, the lower and upper bounds of bias parameters are elicited instead of probability distributions. The most extreme Bayesian posterior inference for the target parameter of interest within the specified bounds is sought through an algorithm. The resulting lower and upper bounds for the target parameter of interest have interpretation of a Robust Bayes analysis. In this thesis, the method is applied to a meta-analysis of childhood leukaemia and exposure to electromagnetic fields. The method of this thesis was found to produce uncertainty intervals that are generally more conservative in comparison with the standard approach. It is also proposed that the method be used as a tool for sensitivity analysis, and some interesting insight is gained from the childhood leukaemia data. [For supplementary files please contact author]

A Riemann solver at a junction compatible with a homogenization limit

We consider a junction regulated by a traffic lights, with n incoming roads and only one outgoing road. On each road the Phase Transition traffic model, proposed in [6], describes the evolution of car traffic. Such model is an extension of the classic Lighthill-Whitham-Richards one, obtained by assuming that different drivers may have different maximal speed. By sending to infinity the number of cycles of the traffic lights, we obtain a justification of the Riemann solver introduced in [9] and in particular of the rule for determining the maximal speed in the outgoing road.Comment: 19 page

Tracking Cyber Adversaries with Adaptive Indicators of Compromise

A forensics investigation after a breach often uncovers network and host indicators of compromise (IOCs) that can be deployed to sensors to allow early detection of the adversary in the future. Over time, the adversary will change tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), which will also change the data generated. If the IOCs are not kept up-to-date with the adversary's new TTPs, the adversary will no longer be detected once all of the IOCs become invalid. Tracking the Known (TTK) is the problem of keeping IOCs, in this case regular expressions (regexes), up-to-date with a dynamic adversary. Our framework solves the TTK problem in an automated, cyclic fashion to bracket a previously discovered adversary. This tracking is accomplished through a data-driven approach of self-adapting a given model based on its own detection capabilities. In our initial experiments, we found that the true positive rate (TPR) of the adaptive solution degrades much less significantly over time than the naive solution, suggesting that self-updating the model allows the continued detection of positives (i.e., adversaries). The cost for this performance is in the false positive rate (FPR), which increases over time for the adaptive solution, but remains constant for the naive solution. However, the difference in overall detection performance, as measured by the area under the curve (AUC), between the two methods is negligible. This result suggests that self-updating the model over time should be done in practice to continue to detect known, evolving adversaries.Comment: This was presented at the 4th Annual Conf. on Computational Science & Computational Intelligence (CSCI'17) held Dec 14-16, 2017 in Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Local true discovery rate weighted polygenic scores using GWAS summary data

A polygenic score is commonly derived using genome-wide genotype data to summarize the genetic contribution to a particular disease at the individual level. Usually it is constructed as a linear combination of SNP genotype weighted by the SNP-wise regression coefficient of the SNP to the phenotype using SNPs with p values smaller than a particular threshold. Commonly a range of thresholds are used which can pose problems with multiple comparisons as well as over-fitting. Here, an alternative weighting scheme is proposed, making use of the local true discovery rate, estimated from summary statistics. Two methods of estimation are proposed—maximum likelihood and kernel density estimation. Simulation studies using real and artificial data suggest this new weighting scheme is highly comparable with standard polygenic scores using the best possible p value threshold in prediction, even though this threshold is not normally known in practice

Whole genome sequencing reveals epistasis effects within RET for Hirschsprung disease

Abstract Common variants in RET and NRG1 have been associated with Hirschsprung disease (HSCR), a congenital disorder characterised by incomplete innervation of distal gut, in East Asian (EA) populations. However, the allelic effects so far identified do not fully explain its heritability, suggesting the presence of epistasis, where effect of one genetic variant differs depending on other (modifier) variants. Few instances of epistasis have been documented in complex diseases due to modelling complexity and data challenges. We proposed four epistasis models to comprehensively capture epistasis for HSCR between and within RET and NRG1 loci using whole genome sequencing (WGS) data in EA samples. 65 variants within the Topologically Associating Domain (TAD) of RET demonstrated significant epistasis with the lead enhancer variant (RET+3; rs2435357). These epistatic variants formed two linkage disequilibrium (LD) clusters represented by rs2506026 and rs2506028 that differed in minor allele frequency and the best-supported epistatic model. Intriguingly, rs2506028 is in high LD with one cis-regulatory variant (rs2506030) highlighted previously, suggesting that detected epistasis might be mediated through synergistic effects on transcription regulation of RET. Our findings demonstrated the advantages of WGS data for detecting epistasis, and support the presence of interactive effects of regulatory variants in RET for HSCR

Image_2_Trans-Ethnic Polygenic Analysis Supports Genetic Overlaps of Lumbar Disc Degeneration With Height, Body Mass Index, and Bone Mineral Density.pdf

<p>Lumbar disc degeneration (LDD) is age-related break-down in the fibrocartilaginous joints between lumbar vertebrae. It is a major cause of low back pain and is conventionally assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Like most other complex traits, LDD is likely polygenic and influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. However, genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of LDD have uncovered few susceptibility loci due to the limited sample size. Previous epidemiology studies of LDD also reported multiple heritable risk factors, including height, body mass index (BMI), bone mineral density (BMD), lipid levels, etc. Genetics can help elucidate causality between traits and suggest loci with pleiotropic effects. One such approach is polygenic score (PGS) which summarizes the effect of multiple variants by the summation of alleles weighted by estimated effects from GWAS. To investigate genetic overlaps of LDD and related heritable risk factors, we calculated the PGS of height, BMI, BMD and lipid levels in a Chinese population-based cohort with spine MRI examination and a Japanese case-control cohort of lumbar disc herniation (LDH) requiring surgery. Because most large-scale GWASs were done in European populations, PGS of corresponding traits were created using weights from European GWASs. We calibrated their prediction performance in independent Chinese samples, then tested associations with MRI-derived LDD scores and LDH affection status. The PGS of height, BMI, BMD and lipid levels were strongly associated with respective phenotypes in Chinese, but phenotype variances explained were lower than in Europeans which would reduce the power to detect genetic overlaps. Despite of this, the PGS of BMI and lumbar spine BMD were significantly associated with LDD scores; and the PGS of height was associated with the increased the liability of LDH. Furthermore, linkage disequilibrium score regression suggested that, osteoarthritis, another degenerative disorder that shares common features with LDD, also showed genetic correlations with height, BMI and BMD. The findings suggest a common key contribution of biomechanical stress to the pathogenesis of LDD and will direct the future search for pleiotropic genes.</p

Table_7_Trans-Ethnic Polygenic Analysis Supports Genetic Overlaps of Lumbar Disc Degeneration With Height, Body Mass Index, and Bone Mineral Density.PDF

<p>Lumbar disc degeneration (LDD) is age-related break-down in the fibrocartilaginous joints between lumbar vertebrae. It is a major cause of low back pain and is conventionally assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Like most other complex traits, LDD is likely polygenic and influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. However, genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of LDD have uncovered few susceptibility loci due to the limited sample size. Previous epidemiology studies of LDD also reported multiple heritable risk factors, including height, body mass index (BMI), bone mineral density (BMD), lipid levels, etc. Genetics can help elucidate causality between traits and suggest loci with pleiotropic effects. One such approach is polygenic score (PGS) which summarizes the effect of multiple variants by the summation of alleles weighted by estimated effects from GWAS. To investigate genetic overlaps of LDD and related heritable risk factors, we calculated the PGS of height, BMI, BMD and lipid levels in a Chinese population-based cohort with spine MRI examination and a Japanese case-control cohort of lumbar disc herniation (LDH) requiring surgery. Because most large-scale GWASs were done in European populations, PGS of corresponding traits were created using weights from European GWASs. We calibrated their prediction performance in independent Chinese samples, then tested associations with MRI-derived LDD scores and LDH affection status. The PGS of height, BMI, BMD and lipid levels were strongly associated with respective phenotypes in Chinese, but phenotype variances explained were lower than in Europeans which would reduce the power to detect genetic overlaps. Despite of this, the PGS of BMI and lumbar spine BMD were significantly associated with LDD scores; and the PGS of height was associated with the increased the liability of LDH. Furthermore, linkage disequilibrium score regression suggested that, osteoarthritis, another degenerative disorder that shares common features with LDD, also showed genetic correlations with height, BMI and BMD. The findings suggest a common key contribution of biomechanical stress to the pathogenesis of LDD and will direct the future search for pleiotropic genes.</p

Presentation_1_Trans-Ethnic Polygenic Analysis Supports Genetic Overlaps of Lumbar Disc Degeneration With Height, Body Mass Index, and Bone Mineral Density.pdf

<p>Lumbar disc degeneration (LDD) is age-related break-down in the fibrocartilaginous joints between lumbar vertebrae. It is a major cause of low back pain and is conventionally assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Like most other complex traits, LDD is likely polygenic and influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. However, genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of LDD have uncovered few susceptibility loci due to the limited sample size. Previous epidemiology studies of LDD also reported multiple heritable risk factors, including height, body mass index (BMI), bone mineral density (BMD), lipid levels, etc. Genetics can help elucidate causality between traits and suggest loci with pleiotropic effects. One such approach is polygenic score (PGS) which summarizes the effect of multiple variants by the summation of alleles weighted by estimated effects from GWAS. To investigate genetic overlaps of LDD and related heritable risk factors, we calculated the PGS of height, BMI, BMD and lipid levels in a Chinese population-based cohort with spine MRI examination and a Japanese case-control cohort of lumbar disc herniation (LDH) requiring surgery. Because most large-scale GWASs were done in European populations, PGS of corresponding traits were created using weights from European GWASs. We calibrated their prediction performance in independent Chinese samples, then tested associations with MRI-derived LDD scores and LDH affection status. The PGS of height, BMI, BMD and lipid levels were strongly associated with respective phenotypes in Chinese, but phenotype variances explained were lower than in Europeans which would reduce the power to detect genetic overlaps. Despite of this, the PGS of BMI and lumbar spine BMD were significantly associated with LDD scores; and the PGS of height was associated with the increased the liability of LDH. Furthermore, linkage disequilibrium score regression suggested that, osteoarthritis, another degenerative disorder that shares common features with LDD, also showed genetic correlations with height, BMI and BMD. The findings suggest a common key contribution of biomechanical stress to the pathogenesis of LDD and will direct the future search for pleiotropic genes.</p

Table_4_Trans-Ethnic Polygenic Analysis Supports Genetic Overlaps of Lumbar Disc Degeneration With Height, Body Mass Index, and Bone Mineral Density.PDF

<p>Lumbar disc degeneration (LDD) is age-related break-down in the fibrocartilaginous joints between lumbar vertebrae. It is a major cause of low back pain and is conventionally assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Like most other complex traits, LDD is likely polygenic and influenced by both genetic and environmental factors. However, genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of LDD have uncovered few susceptibility loci due to the limited sample size. Previous epidemiology studies of LDD also reported multiple heritable risk factors, including height, body mass index (BMI), bone mineral density (BMD), lipid levels, etc. Genetics can help elucidate causality between traits and suggest loci with pleiotropic effects. One such approach is polygenic score (PGS) which summarizes the effect of multiple variants by the summation of alleles weighted by estimated effects from GWAS. To investigate genetic overlaps of LDD and related heritable risk factors, we calculated the PGS of height, BMI, BMD and lipid levels in a Chinese population-based cohort with spine MRI examination and a Japanese case-control cohort of lumbar disc herniation (LDH) requiring surgery. Because most large-scale GWASs were done in European populations, PGS of corresponding traits were created using weights from European GWASs. We calibrated their prediction performance in independent Chinese samples, then tested associations with MRI-derived LDD scores and LDH affection status. The PGS of height, BMI, BMD and lipid levels were strongly associated with respective phenotypes in Chinese, but phenotype variances explained were lower than in Europeans which would reduce the power to detect genetic overlaps. Despite of this, the PGS of BMI and lumbar spine BMD were significantly associated with LDD scores; and the PGS of height was associated with the increased the liability of LDH. Furthermore, linkage disequilibrium score regression suggested that, osteoarthritis, another degenerative disorder that shares common features with LDD, also showed genetic correlations with height, BMI and BMD. The findings suggest a common key contribution of biomechanical stress to the pathogenesis of LDD and will direct the future search for pleiotropic genes.</p