Evaluating National Football League Draft Choices: The Passing Game

Recruiting competent personnel is crucial for the success of any organization, especially in competitive sports where the success of teams depends upon the quality of players selected. This paper examines whether football executives are able to forecast who will be the most successful quarterbacks and wide receivers. Our data base is constructed from the NFL drafts between 1974 and 2005. We use a variety of measures to determine the success of the players selected in those drafts. We conclude that, although their ability to rank the future performance of players is less than perfect, football executives are very successful in evaluating the talent of athletes. There was no evidence that teams that selected Awell@ also had competitive success.sports forecasts; personnel forecasts; National Football League; sports economics

Evaluating National Football League draft choices: The passing game

Recruiting competent personnel is crucial for the success of any organization, and especially in competitive sports, where the success of a team depends upon the quality of the players selected. This paper examines whether football executives are able to forecast who the most successful quarterbacks and wide receivers will be. Our data base is constructed from the NFL drafts between 1974 and 2005. We use a range of measures to determine the success of the players selected in the drafts, and conclude that, although their ability to rank the future performances of players is less than perfect, football executives are very successful at evaluating the talents of athletes. However, there was no evidence that teams which were more successful than others in drafting quarterbacks and wide receivers had a better overall success, as measured by their win-loss records.Sports forecasts Personnel forecasts National football league Sports economics

Biomarkers of Animal Nutrition: From Seasonal to Lifetime Indicators of Environmental Conditions

Nutrition underpins survival and reproduction in animal populations; reliable nutritional biomarkers are therefore requisites to understanding environmental drivers of population dynamics. Biomarkers vary in scope of inference and sensitivity, making it important to know what and when to measure to properly quantify biological responses. We evaluated the repeatability of three nutritional biomarkers in a large, iteroparous mammal to evaluate the level of intrinsic and extrinsic contributions to those traits. During a long-term, individual-based study in a highly variable environment, we measured body fat, body mass, and lean mass of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) each autumn and spring. Lean mass was the most repeatable biomarker (0.72 autumn; 0.61 spring), followed by body mass (0.64 autumn; 0.53 spring), and then body fat (0.22 autumn; 0.01 spring). High repeatability in body and lean mass likely reflects primary structural composition, which is conserved across seasons. Low repeatability of body fat supports that it is the primary labile source of energy that is largely a product of environmental contributions of the previous season. Based on the disparate levels in repeatability among nutritional biomarkers, we contend that body and lean mass are better indicators of nutritional legacies (e.g., maternal effects), whereas body fat is a direct and sensitive reflection of recent nutritional gains and losses