Chapter 12: Systematic Review of Prognostic Tests

A number of new biological markers are being studied as predictors of disease or adverse medical events among those who already have a disease. Systematic reviews of this growing literature can help determine whether the available evidence supports use of a new biomarker as a prognostic test that can more accurately place patients into different prognostic groups to improve treatment decisions and the accuracy of outcome predictions. Exemplary reviews of prognostic tests are not widely available, and the methods used to review diagnostic tests do not necessarily address the most important questions about prognostic tests that are used to predict the time-dependent likelihood of future patient outcomes. We provide suggestions for those interested in conducting systematic reviews of a prognostic test. The proposed use of the prognostic test should serve as the framework for a systematic review and to help define the key questions. The outcome probabilities or level of risk and other characteristics of prognostic groups are the most salient statistics for review and perhaps meta-analysis. Reclassification tables can help determine how a prognostic test affects the classification of patients into different prognostic groups, hence their treatment. Review of studies of the association between a potential prognostic test and patient outcomes would have little impact other than to determine whether further development as a prognostic test might be warranted

Antimicrobial resistance determinants are associated with Staphylococcus aureus bacteraemia and adaptation to the healthcare environment: a bacterial genome-wide association study

Staphylococcus aureus is a major bacterial pathogen in humans, and a dominant cause of severe bloodstream infections. Globally, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in S. aureus remains challenging. While human risk factors for infection have been defined, contradictory evidence exists for the role of bacterial genomic variation in S. aureus disease. To investigate the contribution of bacterial lineage and genomic variation to the development of bloodstream infection, we undertook a genome-wide association study comparing bacteria from 1017 individuals with bacteraemia to 984 adults with asymptomatic S. aureus nasal carriage. Within 984 carriage isolates, we also compared healthcare-associated (HA) carriage with community-associated (CA) carriage. All major global lineages were represented in both bacteraemia and carriage, with no evidence for different infection rates. However, kmers tagging trimethoprim resistance-conferring mutation F99Y in dfrB were significantly associated with bacteraemia-vs-carriage (P=10-8.9-10-9.3). Pooling variation within genes, bacteraemia-vs-carriage was associated with the presence of mecA (HMP=10-5.3) as well as the presence of SCCmec (HMP=10-4.4). Among S. aureus carriers, no lineages were associated with HA-vs-CA carriage. However, we found a novel signal of HA-vs-CA carriage in the foldase protein prsA, where kmers representing conserved sequence allele were associated with CA carriage (P=10-7.1-10-19.4), while in gyrA, a ciprofloxacin resistance-conferring mutation, L84S, was associated with HA carriage (P=10-7.2). In an extensive study of S. aureus bacteraemia and nasal carriage in the UK, we found strong evidence that all S. aureus lineages are equally capable of causing bloodstream infection, and of being carried in the healthcare environment. Genomic variation in the foldase protein prsA is a novel genomic marker of healthcare origin in S. aureus but was not associated with bacteraemia. AMR determinants were associated with both bacteraemia and healthcare-associated carriage, suggesting that AMR increases the propensity not only to survive in healthcare environments, but also to cause invasive disease

The Woody Guthrie Centennial Bibliography

This bibliography updates two extensive works designed to include comprehensively all significant works by and about Woody Guthrie. Richard A. Reuss published A Woody Guthrie Bibliography, 1912–1967 in 1968 and Jeffrey N. Gatten\u27s article “Woody Guthrie: A Bibliographic Update, 1968–1986” appeared in 1988. With this current article, researchers need only utilize these three bibliographies to identify all English-language items of relevance related to, or written by, Guthrie

Rearrangement, amplification, and assortment of mitochondrial DNA molecules in cultured cells of Brassica campestris

We compared Brassica campestris mitochondrial and chloroplast DNAs from whole plants and from a 2-year-old cell culture. No differences were observed in the chloroplast DNAs (cpDNAs), whereas the culture mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) was extensively altered. Hybridization analysis revealed that the alterations are due entirely to rearrangement. At least two inversions and one large duplication are found in the culture mtDNA. The duplication element is shown to have the usual properties of a plant mtDNA high frequency “recombination repeat”. The culture mtDNA exists as a complex heterogeneous population of rearranged and unrearranged molecules. Some of the culture-associated rearranged molecules are present in low levels in native plant tissue and appear to have sorted out and amplified in the culture. Other mtDNA rearrangements may have occurred de novo. In addition to alterations of the main mitochondrial genome, an 11.3 kb linear mtDNA plasmid present in whole plants is absent from the culture. Contrary to findings in cultured cells of other plants, small circular mtDNA molecules were not detected in the B. campestris cell culture.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/46005/1/122_2004_Article_BF00292310.pd

SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity are associated with genetic variants affecting gene expression in a variety of tissues

Variability in SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and COVID-19 disease severity between individuals is partly due to genetic factors. Here, we identify 4 genomic loci with suggestive associations for SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility and 19 for COVID-19 disease severity. Four of these 23 loci likely have an ethnicity-specific component. Genome-wide association study (GWAS) signals in 11 loci colocalize with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) associated with the expression of 20 genes in 62 tissues/cell types (range: 1:43 tissues/gene), including lung, brain, heart, muscle, and skin as well as the digestive system and immune system. We perform genetic fine mapping to compute 99% credible SNP sets, which identify 10 GWAS loci that have eight or fewer SNPs in the credible set, including three loci with one single likely causal SNP. Our study suggests that the diverse symptoms and disease severity of COVID-19 observed between individuals is associated with variants across the genome, affecting gene expression levels in a wide variety of tissue types

The 2021 WHO catalogue of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex mutations associated with drug resistance: a genotypic analysis.

Background: Molecular diagnostics are considered the most promising route to achievement of rapid, universal drug susceptibility testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). We aimed to generate a WHO-endorsed catalogue of mutations to serve as a global standard for interpreting molecular information for drug resistance prediction. Methods: In this systematic analysis, we used a candidate gene approach to identify mutations associated with resistance or consistent with susceptibility for 13 WHO-endorsed antituberculosis drugs. We collected existing worldwide MTBC whole-genome sequencing data and phenotypic data from academic groups and consortia, reference laboratories, public health organisations, and published literature. We categorised phenotypes as follows: methods and critical concentrations currently endorsed by WHO (category 1); critical concentrations previously endorsed by WHO for those methods (category 2); methods or critical concentrations not currently endorsed by WHO (category 3). For each mutation, we used a contingency table of binary phenotypes and presence or absence of the mutation to compute positive predictive value, and we used Fisher's exact tests to generate odds ratios and Benjamini-Hochberg corrected p values. Mutations were graded as associated with resistance if present in at least five isolates, if the odds ratio was more than 1 with a statistically significant corrected p value, and if the lower bound of the 95% CI on the positive predictive value for phenotypic resistance was greater than 25%. A series of expert rules were applied for final confidence grading of each mutation. Findings: We analysed 41 137 MTBC isolates with phenotypic and whole-genome sequencing data from 45 countries. 38 215 MTBC isolates passed quality control steps and were included in the final analysis. 15 667 associations were computed for 13 211 unique mutations linked to one or more drugs. 1149 (7·3%) of 15 667 mutations were classified as associated with phenotypic resistance and 107 (0·7%) were deemed consistent with susceptibility. For rifampicin, isoniazid, ethambutol, fluoroquinolones, and streptomycin, the mutations' pooled sensitivity was more than 80%. Specificity was over 95% for all drugs except ethionamide (91·4%), moxifloxacin (91·6%) and ethambutol (93·3%). Only two resistance mutations were identified for bedaquiline, delamanid, clofazimine, and linezolid as prevalence of phenotypic resistance was low for these drugs. Interpretation: We present the first WHO-endorsed catalogue of molecular targets for MTBC drug susceptibility testing, which is intended to provide a global standard for resistance interpretation. The existence of this catalogue should encourage the implementation of molecular diagnostics by national tuberculosis programmes. Funding: Unitaid, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation