It's a wonderful life: Mentally subtracting positive events improves people's affective states, contrary to their affective forecasts.

The authors hypothesized that thinking about the absence of a positive event from one’s life would improve affective states more than thinking about the presence of a positive event but that people would not predict this when making affective forecasts. In Studies 1 and 2, college students wrote about the ways in which a positive event might never have happened and was surprising or how it became part of their life and was unsurprising. As predicted, people in the former condition reported more positive affective states. In Study 3, college student forecasters failed to anticipate this effect. In Study 4, Internet respondents and university staff members who wrote about how they might never have met their romantic partner were more satisfied with their relationship than were those who wrote about how they did meet their partner. The authors discuss the implications of these findings for the literatures on gratitude induction and counterfactual reasoning

FIELD TRIALS OF ONTARIO RABIES VACCINE BAIT IN THE NORTHEASTERN USA, 2012–14

In the US, rabies virus (RV) has been enzootic in raccoons (Procyon lotor) since the late 1940s. Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) was implemented in the 1990s to halt the spread of raccoon RV and continues to be used as a wildlife management tool. Our objective was to evaluate a recombinant human adenovirus–rabies virus glycoprotein vaccine in northern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire over a 3-yr period, using changes in RV neutralizing antibody (RVNA) seroprevalence in raccoon populations as an immunologic index of ORV impact. Vaccine baits were distributed at 75 baits/km2 and 750-m flight-line spacing in the study area. Animal sampling occurred during 10-d intervals pre- and post-ORV during 2012–14 within eight study cells: four northern cells had a history of ORV with a different vaccine for 3 or more years prior and four southern cells were ORV naive. Baseline raccoon RVNA seroprevalence was 27.3% (n=1,079, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 24.8–30.1) before ORV in 2012. Raccoon RVNA seroprevalence averaged 68.5% (n=1,551, 95% CI: 66.2–70.8) post-ORV during the 3-yr study. The RVNA seroprevalence levels in this study were considered to be adequate for stopping raccoon RV transmission and supported and expanded the results from a West Virginia field trial, as well as earlier evaluations along the Canada–US border

Association of subchondral bone texture on magnetic resonance imaging with radiographic knee osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative Bone Ancillary Study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess whether initial or 12-18-month change in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) subchondral bone texture is predictive of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression over 36 months. METHODS: This was a nested case-control study including 122 knees/122 participants in the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) Bone Ancillary Study, who underwent MRI optimised for subchondral bone assessment at either the 30- or 36-month and 48-month OAI visits. Case knees (n = 61) had radiographic OA progression between the 36- and 72-month OAI visits, defined as ≥ 0.7 mm minimum medial tibiofemoral radiographic joint space (minJSW) loss. Control knees (n = 61) without radiographic OA progression were matched (1:1) to cases for age, sex, body mass index and initial medial minJSW. Texture analysis was performed on the medial femoral and tibial subchondral bone. We assessed the association of texture features with radiographic progression by creating a composite texture score using penalised logistic regression and calculating odds ratios. We evaluated the predictive performance of texture features for predicting radiographic progression using c-statistics. RESULTS: Initial (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 2.13 [1.41-3.40]) and 12- 18-month change (3.76 [2.04-7.82]) texture scores were significantly associated with radiographic OA progression. Combinations of texture features were significant predictors of radiographic progression using initial (c-statistic [95% confidence interval] = 0.65 [0.64-0.65], p = 0.003) and 12-18-month change (0.68 [0.68-0.68], p < 0.001) data. CONCLUSIONS: Initial and 12-18-month changes in MRI subchondral bone texture score were significantly associated with radiographic progression at 36 months, with better predictive performance for 12-18-month change in texture. These results suggest that texture analysis may be a useful biomarker of subchondral bone in OA. KEY POINTS: • Subchondral bone MRI texture analysis is a promising knee osteoarthritis imaging biomarker. • In this study, subchondral bone texture was associated with knee osteoarthritis progression. • This demonstrates predictive and concurrent validity of MRI subchondral bone texture analysis. • This method may be useful in clinical trials with interventions targeting bone

A New Spectroscopic and Photometric Analysis of the Transiting Planet Systems TrES-3 and TrES-4

We report new spectroscopic and photometric observations of the parent stars of the recently discovered transiting planets TrES-3 and TrES-4. A detailed abundance analysis based on high-resolution spectra yields [Fe/H] = –0.19 ± 0.08, T_(eff) = 5650 ± 75 K, and log g = 4.4 ± 0.1 for TrES-3, and [Fe/H] = +0.14 ± 0.09, T_(eff) = 6200 ± 75 K, and log g = 4.0 ± 0.1 for TrES-4. The accuracy of the effective temperatures is supported by a number of independent consistency checks. The spectroscopic orbital solution for TrES-3 is improved with our new radial velocity measurements of that system, as are the light-curve parameters for both systems based on newly acquired photometry for TrES-3 and a reanalysis of existing photometry for TrES-4. We have redetermined the stellar parameters taking advantage of the strong constraint provided by the light curves in the form of the normalized separation a/R_* (related to the stellar density) in conjunction with our new temperatures and metallicities. The masses and radii we derive are M_* = 0.928^(+0.028)_(–0.048) M_⊙, R_* = 0.829^(+0.015)_(–0.022) R_⊙, and M_* = 1.404^(+0.066)_(–0.134) M_⊙, R_* = 1.846^(+0.096)_(–0.087) R_⊙ for TrES-3 and TrES-4, respectively. With these revised stellar parameters, we obtain improved values for the planetary masses and radii. We find M_p = 1.910^(+0.075)_(–0.080) M_(Jup), R_p = 1.336^(+0.031)_(–0.036) R_(Jup) for TrES-3, and M_p = 0.925 ± 0.082 M_(Jup), R_p = 1.783^(+0.093)_(–0.086) R_(Jup) for TrES-4. We confirm TrES-4 as the planet with the largest radius among the currently known transiting hot Jupiters

Kepler-432: a red giant interacting with one of its two long period giant planets

We report the discovery of Kepler-432b, a giant planet ($M_b = 5.41^{+0.32}_{-0.18} M_{\rm Jup}, R_b = 1.145^{+0.036}_{-0.039} R_{\rm Jup}$) transiting an evolved star $(M_\star = 1.32^{+0.10}_{-0.07} M_\odot, R_\star = 4.06^{+0.12}_{-0.08} R_\odot)$ with an orbital period of $P_b = 52.501129^{+0.000067}_{-0.000053}$ days. Radial velocities (RVs) reveal that Kepler-432b orbits its parent star with an eccentricity of $e = 0.5134^{+0.0098}_{-0.0089}$, which we also measure independently with asterodensity profiling (AP; $e=0.507^{+0.039}_{-0.114}$), thereby confirming the validity of AP on this particular evolved star. The well-determined planetary properties and unusually large mass also make this planet an important benchmark for theoretical models of super-Jupiter formation. Long-term RV monitoring detected the presence of a non-transiting outer planet (Kepler-432c; $M_c \sin{i_c} = 2.43^{+0.22}_{-0.24} M_{\rm Jup}, P_c = 406.2^{+3.9}_{-2.5}$ days), and adaptive optics imaging revealed a nearby (0\farcs87), faint companion (Kepler-432B) that is a physically bound M dwarf. The host star exhibits high signal-to-noise asteroseismic oscillations, which enable precise measurements of the stellar mass, radius and age. Analysis of the rotational splitting of the oscillation modes additionally reveals the stellar spin axis to be nearly edge-on, which suggests that the stellar spin is likely well-aligned with the orbit of the transiting planet. Despite its long period, the obliquity of the 52.5-day orbit may have been shaped by star-planet interaction in a manner similar to hot Jupiter systems, and we present observational and theoretical evidence to support this scenario. Finally, as a short-period outlier among giant planets orbiting giant stars, study of Kepler-432b may help explain the distribution of massive planets orbiting giant stars interior to 1 AU.Comment: 22 pages, 19 figures, 5 tables. Accepted to ApJ on Jan 24, 2015 (submitted Nov 11, 2014). Updated with minor changes to match published versio

Objective response rate targets for recurrent glioblastoma clinical trials based on the historic association between objective response rate and median overall survival

Durable objective response rate (ORR) remains a meaningful endpoint in recurrent cancer; however, the target ORR for single-arm recurrent glioblastoma trials has not been based on historic information or tied to patient outcomes. The current study reviewed 68 treatment arms comprising 4793 patients in past trials in recurrent glioblastoma in order to judiciously define target ORRs for use in recurrent glioblastoma trials. ORR was estimated at 6.1% [95% CI 4.23; 8.76%] for cytotoxic chemothera + pies (ORR = 7.59% for lomustine, 7.57% for temozolomide, 0.64% for irinotecan, and 5.32% for other agents), 3.37% for biologic agents, 7.97% for (select) immunotherapies, and 26.8% for anti-angiogenic agents. ORRs were significantly correlated with median overall survival (mOS) across chemotherapy (R$^2$= 0.4078, P 25% is needed to demonstrate statistical significance compared to control with a high level of confidence (P 80%). Given this historic data and potential biases in patient selection, we recommend that well-controlled, single-arm phase II studies in recurrent glioblastoma should have a target ORR > 25% (which translates to a median OS of approximately 15 months) and a sample size of ≥ 40 patients, in order to convincingly demonstrate antitumor activity. Crucially, this response needs to have sufficient durability, which was not addressed in the current study

Objective response rate targets for recurrent glioblastoma clinical trials based on the historic association between objective response rate and median overall survival

Durable objective response rate (ORR) remains a meaningful endpoint in recurrent cancer; however, the target ORR for single-arm recurrent glioblastoma trials has not been based on historic information or tied to patient outcomes. The current study reviewed 68 treatment arms comprising 4793 patients in past trials in recurrent glioblastoma in order to judiciously define target ORRs for use in recurrent glioblastoma trials. ORR was estimated at 6.1% [95% CI 4.23; 8.76%] for cytotoxic chemothera + pies (ORR = 7.59% for lomustine, 7.57% for temozolomide, 0.64% for irinotecan, and 5.32% for other agents), 3.37% for biologic agents, 7.97% for (select) immunotherapies, and 26.8% for anti-angiogenic agents. ORRs were significantly correlated with median overall survival (mOS) across chemotherapy (R2= 0.4078, P &lt; .0001), biologics (R2= 0.4003, P = .0003), and immunotherapy trials (R2= 0.8994, P &lt; .0001), but not anti-angiogenic agents (R2= 0, P = .8937). Pooling data from chemotherapy, biologics, and immunotherapy trials, a meta-analysis indicated a strong correlation between ORR and mOS (R2= 0.3900, P &lt; .0001; mOS [weeks] = 1.4xORR + 24.8). Assuming an ineffective cytotoxic (control) therapy has ORR = 7.6%, the average ORR for lomustine and temozolomide trials, a sample size of ≥40 patients with target ORR&gt;25% is needed to demonstrate statistical significance compared to control with a high level of confidence (P &lt; .01) and adequate power (&gt;80%). Given this historic data and potential biases in patient selection, we recommend that well-controlled, single-arm phase II studies in recurrent glioblastoma should have a target ORR &gt;25% (which translates to a median OS of approximately 15 months) and a sample size of ≥40 patients, in order to convincingly demonstrate antitumor activity. Crucially, this response needs to have sufficient durability, which was not addressed in the current study.</p

Using Satellite Images of Environmental Changes to Predict Infectious Disease Outbreaks

A strong global satellite imaging system is essential for predicting outbreaks

Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler IV: Planet Sample From Q1-Q8 (22 Months)

We provide updates to the Kepler planet candidate sample based upon nearly two years of high-precision photometry (i.e., Q1-Q8). From an initial list of nearly 13,400 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs), 480 new host stars are identified from their flux time series as consistent with hosting transiting planets. Potential transit signals are subjected to further analysis using the pixel-level data, which allows background eclipsing binaries to be identified through small image position shifts during transit. We also re-evaluate Kepler Objects of Interest (KOI) 1-1609, which were identified early in the mission, using substantially more data to test for background false positives and to find additional multiple systems. Combining the new and previous KOI samples, we provide updated parameters for 2,738 Kepler planet candidates distributed across 2,017 host stars. From the combined Kepler planet candidates, 472 are new from the Q1-Q8 data examined in this study. The new Kepler planet candidates represent ~40% of the sample with Rp~1 Rearth and represent ~40% of the low equilibrium temperature (Teq<300 K) sample. We review the known biases in the current sample of Kepler planet candidates relevant to evaluating planet population statistics with the current Kepler planet candidate sample.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, Accepted ApJ Supplemen