Pediatric Inpatient Antibiotic Prescription Practices in the Chain Network Hospitals at Baseline

This analysis describes adherence to antibiotic guidelines during the first 48 hours of admission. Adherence was defined as a regimen consistent with institutional, national, or international recommendations.Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global concern. Antibiotic stewardship is being promoted to reduce AMR. However, few studies have documented inpatient antibiotic prescription practices in low resource settings. We audited the 240 clinical notes of 2-23 month-old inpatient children in Bangladesh (2), Kenya (3), Malawi (1), Pakistan (1) and Uganda (1) as part of a baseline assessment in a study to identify risk factors for mortality in acutely ill inpatients, particularly in undernourished children. This analysis describes adherence to antibiotic guidelines during the first 48 hours of admission. Adherence was defined as a regimen consistent with institutional, national, or international recommendations. The cases reviewed included diagnoses of diarrhea (n:107), severe acute malnutrition (n:101), pneumonia (n:76), malaria (n:35), sepsis (n:25), meningitis (n:12), and shock (n:8). Antibiotics were prescribed to 98% with at least one documented indication for antibiotics (n:173); 80% of these were consistent with recommended regimens. Antibiotics were prescribed in 93% of admitted diarrhea cases, 85% of whom had a comorbidity warranting antimicrobials (n:85) or dysentery (n:1). Among children with malaria noted as a diagnosis and without a documented indication for antibiotics (n:22), those who did not receive a malaria test (n:6) were all prescribed antibiotics. In comparison, 63% of those with a documented positive malaria test (n:16) were prescribed antibiotics without indication. Among those with diarrhea (n:15) and malaria (n:16) without a documented indication for antibiotics, 58% were prescribed an antimicrobial regimen consistent with treatment for a severe bacterial infection. Antibiotics were almost universally prescribed when indicated and adherence to a recommend regimen was comparable to other studie

Childhood mortality during and after acute illness in Africa and south Asia: a prospective cohort study

Background: Mortality among children with acute illness in low-income and middle-income settings remains unacceptably high and the importance of post-discharge mortality is increasingly recognised. We aimed to explore the epidemiology of deaths among young children with acute illness across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia to inform the development of interventions and improved guidelines. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, we enrolled children aged 2–23 months with acute illness, stratified by nutritional status defined by anthropometry (ie, no wasting, moderate wasting, or severe wasting or kwashiorkor), who were admitted to one of nine hospitals in six countries across sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia between Nov 20, 2016, and Jan 31, 2019. We assisted sites to comply with national guidelines. Co-primary outcomes were mortality within 30 days of hospital admission and post-discharge mortality within 180 days of hospital discharge. A priori exposure domains, including demographic, clinical, and anthropometric characteristics at hospital admission and discharge, as well as child, caregiver, and household-level characteristics, were examined in regression and survival structural equation models. Findings: Of 3101 children (median age 11 months [IQR 7–16]), 1120 (36·1%) had no wasting, 763 (24·6%) had moderate wasting, and 1218 (39·3%) had severe wasting or kwashiorkor. Of 350 (11·3%) deaths overall, 234 (66·9%) occurred within 30 days of hospital admission and 168 (48·0%) within 180 days of hospital discharge. 90 (53·6%) post-discharge deaths occurred at home. The proportion of children who died following discharge was relatively preserved across nutritional strata. Numerically large high-risk and low-risk groups could be disaggregated for early mortality and post-discharge mortality. Structural equation models identified direct pathways to mortality and multiple socioeconomic, clinical, and nutritional domains acting indirectly through anthropometric status. Interpretation: Among diverse sites in Africa and south Asia, almost half of mortality occurs following hospital discharge. Despite being highly predictable, these deaths are not addressed in current guidelines. A fundamental shift to a child-centred, risk-based approach to inpatient and post-discharge management is needed to further reduce childhood mortality, and clinical trials of these approaches with outcomes of mortality, readmission, and cost are warranted. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Characterising paediatric mortality during and after acute illness in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia: a secondary analysis of the CHAIN cohort using a machine learning approach

Background: A better understanding of which children are likely to die during acute illness will help clinicians and policy makers target resources at the most vulnerable children. We used machine learning to characterise mortality in the 30-days following admission and the 180-days after discharge from nine hospitals in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods: A cohort of 3101 children aged 2–24 months were recruited at admission to hospital for any acute illness in Bangladesh (Dhaka and Matlab Hospitals), Pakistan (Civil Hospital Karachi), Kenya (Kilifi, Mbagathi, and Migori Hospitals), Uganda (Mulago Hospital), Malawi (Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital), and Burkina Faso (Banfora Hospital) from November 2016 to January 2019. To record mortality, children were observed during their hospitalisation and for 180 days post-discharge. Extreme gradient boosted models of death within 30 days of admission and mortality in the 180 days following discharge were built. Clusters of mortality sharing similar characteristics were identified from the models using Shapley additive values with spectral clustering. Findings: Anthropometric and laboratory parameters were the most influential predictors of both 30-day and post-discharge mortality. No WHO/IMCI syndromes were among the 25 most influential mortality predictors of mortality. For 30-day mortality, two lower-risk clusters (N = 1915, 61%) included children with higher-than-average anthropometry (1% died, 95% CI: 0–2), and children without signs of severe illness (3% died, 95% CI: 2–4%). The two highest risk 30-day mortality clusters (N = 118, 4%) were characterised by high urea and creatinine (70% died, 95% CI: 62–82%); and nutritional oedema with low platelets and reduced consciousness (97% died, 95% CI: 92–100%). For post-discharge mortality risk, two low-risk clusters (N = 1753, 61%) were defined by higher-than-average anthropometry (0% died, 95% CI: 0–1%), and gastroenteritis with lower-than-average anthropometry and without major laboratory abnormalities (0% died, 95% CI: 0–1%). Two highest risk post-discharge clusters (N = 267, 9%) included children leaving against medical advice (30% died, 95% CI: 25–37%), and severely-low anthropometry with signs of illness at discharge (46% died, 95% CI: 34–62%). Interpretation: WHO clinical syndromes are not sufficient at predicting risk. Integrating basic laboratory features such as urea, creatinine, red blood cell, lymphocyte and platelet counts into guidelines may strengthen efforts to identify high-risk children during paediatric hospitalisations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1131320