Data mining algorithm predicts a range of adverse outcomes in major depression

Background: Course of illness in major depression (MD) is highly varied, which might lead to both under- and overtreatment if clinicians adhere to a 'one-size-fits-all' approach. Novel opportunities in data mining could lead to prediction models that can assist clinicians in treatment decisions tailored to the individual patient. This study assesses the performance of a previously developed data mining algorithm to predict future episodes of MD based on clinical information in new data. Methods: We applied a prediction model utilizing baseline clinical characteristics in subjects who reported lifetime MD to two independent test samples (total n = 4226). We assessed the model's performance to predict future episodes of MD, anxiety disorders, and disability during follow-up (1–9 years after baseline). In addition, we compared its prediction performance with well-known risk factors for a severe course of illness. Results: Our model consistently predicted future episodes of MD in both test samples (AUC 0.68–0.73, modest prediction). Equally accurately, it predicted episodes of generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder and disability (AUC 0.65–0.78). Our model predicted these outcomes more accurately than risk factors for a severe course of illness such as family history of MD and lifetime traumas. Limitations: Prediction accuracy might be different for specific subgroups, such as hospitalized patients or patients with a different cultural background. Conclusions: Our prediction model consistently predicted a range of adverse outcomes in MD across two independent test samples derived from studies in different subpopulations, countries, using different measurement procedures. This replication study holds promise for application in clinical practice

Genome-Wide Association Studies of Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder in a Diverse Cohort of US Veterans

Background: Schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorder (BIP) are debilitating neuropsychiatric disorders, collectively affecting 2% of the world\u27s population. Recognizing the major impact of these psychiatric disorders on the psychosocial function of more than 200 000 US Veterans, the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) recently completed genotyping of more than 8000 veterans with SCZ and BIP in the Cooperative Studies Program (CSP) #572. Methods: We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in CSP #572 and benchmarked the predictive value of polygenic risk scores (PRS) constructed from published findings. We combined our results with available summary statistics from several recent GWAS, realizing the largest and most diverse studies of these disorders to date. Results: Our primary GWAS uncovered new associations between CHD7 variants and SCZ, and novel BIP associations with variants in Sortilin Related VPS10 Domain Containing Receptor 3 (SORCS3) and downstream of PCDH11X. Combining our results with published summary statistics for SCZ yielded 39 novel susceptibility loci including CRHR1, and we identified 10 additional findings for BIP (28 326 cases and 90 570 controls). PRS trained on published GWAS were significantly associated with case-control status among European American (P \u3c 10-30) and African American (P \u3c .0005) participants in CSP #572. Conclusions: We have demonstrated that published findings for SCZ and BIP are robustly generalizable to a diverse cohort of US veterans. Leveraging available summary statistics from GWAS of global populations, we report 52 new susceptibility loci and improved fine-mapping resolution for dozens of previously reported associations

Measuring Servitization Progress and Outcome:The Case of ‘Advanced Services’

The purpose of this paper is to establish a framework for assessing the progress and outcome of a manufacturer’s transformation towards becoming a provider of ‘advanced services’ – a complex bundling of products and services, whereby manufacturers offer capabilities and outcomes instead of products alone. ‘Advanced services’ represent the most complex offering in the current servitization trend among manufacturers. However, current performance measures lack the breadth and focus to assess progress or outcomes, and so support research and practice of organisational transformation efforts required. To address this gap the paper investigates how a manufacturer’s efforts to become an ‘advanced services’ provider can be comprehensively measured, and develops a framework for assessing the transformation journey towards becoming an ‘advanced services’ provider. The research method is based on (1) a systematic literature review process to create a comprehensive set of service-related performance measures that are available to assess a manufacturer’s servitization efforts, followed by (2) an engagement with an expert panel to synthesise the identified measures and create a set of ‘advanced services’ performance measures. The proposed framework is presented as a scorecard that can be used in practice to assess the progress and outcome of a manufacturer’s transformation towards becoming a provider of ‘advanced services’

Interaction testing and polygenic risk scoring to estimate the association of common genetic variants with treatment resistance in schizophrenia

Importance About 20% to 30% of people with schizophrenia have psychotic symptoms that do not respond adequately to first-line antipsychotic treatment. This clinical presentation, chronic and highly disabling, is known as treatment-resistant schizophrenia (TRS). The causes of treatment resistance and their relationships with causes underlying schizophrenia are largely unknown. Adequately powered genetic studies of TRS are scarce because of the difficulty in collecting data from well-characterized TRS cohorts. Objective To examine the genetic architecture of TRS through the reassessment of genetic data from schizophrenia studies and its validation in carefully ascertained clinical samples. Design, Setting, and Participants Two case-control genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of schizophrenia were performed in which the case samples were defined as individuals with TRS (n=10 501) and individuals with non-TRS (n=20 325). The differences in effect sizes for allelic associations were then determined between both studies, the reasoning being such differences reflect treatment resistance instead of schizophrenia. Genotype data were retrieved from the CLOZUK and Psychiatric Genomics Consortium (PGC) schizophrenia studies. The output was validated using polygenic risk score (PRS) profiling of 2 independent schizophrenia cohorts with TRS and non-TRS: a prevalence sample with 817 individuals (Cardiff Cognition in Schizophrenia [CardiffCOGS]) and an incidence sample with 563 individuals (Genetics Workstream of the Schizophrenia Treatment Resistance and Therapeutic Advances [STRATA-G]). Main Outcomes and Measures GWAS of treatment resistance in schizophrenia. The results of the GWAS were compared with complex polygenic traits through a genetic correlation approach and were used for PRS analysis on the independent validation cohorts using the same TRS definition. Results The study included a total of 85 490 participants (48 635 [56.9%] male) in its GWAS stage and 1380 participants (859 [62.2%] male) in its PRS validation stage. Treatment resistance in schizophrenia emerged as a polygenic trait with detectable heritability (1% to 4%), and several traits related to intelligence and cognition were found to be genetically correlated with it (genetic correlation, 0.41-0.69). PRS analysis in the CardiffCOGS prevalence sample showed a positive association between TRS and a history of taking clozapine (r² = 2.03%; P = .001), which was replicated in the STRATA-G incidence sample (r² = 1.09%; P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance In this GWAS, common genetic variants were differentially associated with TRS, and these associations may have been obscured through the amalgamation of large GWAS samples in previous studies of broadly defined schizophrenia. Findings of this study suggest the validity of meta-analytic approaches for studies on patient outcomes, including treatment resistance.Funding/Support: This work was supported by Medical Research Council Centre grant MR/ L010305/1, Medical Research Council Program grant MR/P005748/1, and Medical Research Council Project grants MR/L011794/1 and MC_PC_17212 to Cardiff University and by the National Centre for Mental Health, funded by the Welsh Government through Health and Care Research Wales. This work acknowledges the support of the Supercomputing Wales project, which is partially funded by the European Regional Development Fund via the Welsh Government. Dr Pardiñas was supported by an Academy of Medical Sciences Springboard Award (SBF005\1083). Dr Andreassen was supported by the Research Council of Norway (grants 283798, 262656, 248980, 273291, 248828, 248778, and 223273); KG Jebsen Stiftelsen, South-East Norway Health Authority, and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant 847776). Dr Ajnakina was supported by an National Institute for Health Research postdoctoral fellowship (PDF-2018-11-ST2-020). Dr Joyce was supported by the University College London Hospitals/UCL University College London Biomedical Research Centre. Dr Kowalec received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement (793530) from the government of Canada Banting postdoctoral fellowship programme and the University of Manitoba. Dr Sullivan was supported by the Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet, D0886501), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme (COSYN, 610307) and the US National Institute of Mental Health (U01 MH109528 and R01 MH077139). The Psychiatric Genomics Consortium was partly supported by the National Institute Of Mental Health (grants R01MH124873). The Sweden Schizophrenia Study was supported by the National Institute Of Mental Health (grant R01MH077139). The STRATA consortium was supported by a Stratified Medicine Programme grant to Dr MacCabe from the Medical Research Council (grant MR/L011794/1), which funded the research and supported Drs Pardiñas, Smart, Kassoumeri, Murray, Walters, and MacCabe. Dr Smart was supported by a Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South London at King’s College Hospital National Health Service Foundation Trust. The AESOP (US) cohort was funded by the UK Medical Research Council (grant G0500817). The Belfast (UK) cohort was funded by the Research and Development Office of Northern Ireland. The Bologna (Italy) cohort was funded by the European Community’s Seventh Framework program (HEALTH-F2-2010–241909, project EU-GEI). The Genetics and Psychosis project (London, UK) cohort was funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research Specialist Biomedical Research Centre for Mental Health, South London and the Maudsley National Health Service Mental Health Foundation Trust (SLAM) and the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience at King’s College London; Psychiatry Research Trust; Maudsley Charity Research Fund; and the European Community’s Seventh Framework program (HEALTH-F2-2009-241909, project EU-GEI). The Lausanne (Switzerland) cohort was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (grants 320030_135736/1, 320030-120686, 324730-144064, 320030-173211, and 171804); the National Center of Competence in Research Synaptic Bases of Mental Diseases from the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant 51AU40_125759); and Fondation Alamaya. The Oslo (Norway) cohort was funded by the Research Council of Norway (grant 223273/F50, under the Centers of Excellence funding scheme, 300309, 283798) and the South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority (grants 2006233, 2006258, 2011085, 2014102, 2015088, and 2017-112). The Paris (France) cohort was funded by European Community’s Seventh Framework program (HEALTH-F2-2010–241909, project EU-GEI). The Prague (Czech Republic) cohort was funded by the Ministry of Health of the Czech Republic (grant NU20-04-00393). The Santander (Spain) cohort was funded by the following grants to Dr Crespo-Facorro: Instituto de Salud Carlos III (grants FIS00/3095, PI020499, PI050427, and PI060507), Plan Nacional de Drogas Research (grant 2005-Orden sco/3246/2004), SENY Fundatio Research (grant 2005-0308007), Fundacion Marques de Valdecilla (grant A/02/07, API07/011) and Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the European Fund for Regional Development (grants SAF2016-76046-R and SAF2013-46292-R). The West London (UK) cohort was funded by The Wellcome Trust (grants 042025, 052247, and 064607)

Characterisation of age and polarity at onset in bipolar disorder

Background Studying phenotypic and genetic characteristics of age at onset (AAO) and polarity at onset (PAO) in bipolar disorder can provide new insights into disease pathology and facilitate the development of screening tools. Aims To examine the genetic architecture of AAO and PAO and their association with bipolar disorder disease characteristics. Method Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) and polygenic score (PGS) analyses of AAO (n = 12 977) and PAO (n = 6773) were conducted in patients with bipolar disorder from 34 cohorts and a replication sample (n = 2237). The association of onset with disease characteristics was investigated in two of these cohorts. Results Earlier AAO was associated with a higher probability of psychotic symptoms, suicidality, lower educational attainment, not living together and fewer episodes. Depressive onset correlated with suicidality and manic onset correlated with delusions and manic episodes. Systematic differences in AAO between cohorts and continents of origin were observed. This was also reflected in single-nucleotide variant-based heritability estimates, with higher heritabilities for stricter onset definitions. Increased PGS for autism spectrum disorder (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), major depression (β = −0.34 years, s.e. = 0.08), schizophrenia (β = −0.39 years, s.e. = 0.08), and educational attainment (β = −0.31 years, s.e. = 0.08) were associated with an earlier AAO. The AAO GWAS identified one significant locus, but this finding did not replicate. Neither GWAS nor PGS analyses yielded significant associations with PAO. Conclusions AAO and PAO are associated with indicators of bipolar disorder severity. Individuals with an earlier onset show an increased polygenic liability for a broad spectrum of psychiatric traits. Systematic differences in AAO across cohorts, continents and phenotype definitions introduce significant heterogeneity, affecting analyses.publishedVersio

Mapping genomic loci implicates genes and synaptic biology in schizophrenia

Schizophrenia has a heritability of 60-80%1, much of which is attributable to common risk alleles. Here, in a two-stage genome-wide association study of up to 76,755 individuals with schizophrenia and 243,649 control individuals, we report common variant associations at 287 distinct genomic loci. Associations were concentrated in genes that are expressed in excitatory and inhibitory neurons of the central nervous system, but not in other tissues or cell types. Using fine-mapping and functional genomic data, we identify 120 genes (106 protein-coding) that are likely to underpin associations at some of these loci, including 16 genes with credible causal non-synonymous or untranslated region variation. We also implicate fundamental processes related to neuronal function, including synaptic organization, differentiation and transmission. Fine-mapped candidates were enriched for genes associated with rare disruptive coding variants in people with schizophrenia, including the glutamate receptor subunit GRIN2A and transcription factor SP4, and were also enriched for genes implicated by such variants in neurodevelopmental disorders. We identify biological processes relevant to schizophrenia pathophysiology; show convergence of common and rare variant associations in schizophrenia and neurodevelopmental disorders; and provide a resource of prioritized genes and variants to advance mechanistic studies.</p

Investigation of convergent and divergent genetic influences underlying schizophrenia and alcohol use disorder

Background Alcohol use disorder (AUD) and schizophrenia (SCZ) frequently co-occur, and large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified significant genetic correlations between these disorders. Methods We used the largest published GWAS for AUD (total cases = 77 822) and SCZ (total cases = 46 827) to identify genetic variants that influence both disorders (with either the same or opposite direction of effect) and those that are disorder specific. Results We identified 55 independent genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms with the same direction of effect on AUD and SCZ, 8 with robust effects in opposite directions, and 98 with disorder-specific effects. We also found evidence for 12 genes whose pleiotropic associations with AUD and SCZ are consistent with mediation via gene expression in the prefrontal cortex. The genetic covariance between AUD and SCZ was concentrated in genomic regions functional in brain tissues (p = 0.001). Conclusions Our findings provide further evidence that SCZ shares meaningful genetic overlap with AUD

Genome-wide association studies in ancestrally diverse populations: opportunities, methods, pitfalls, and recommendations

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have focused primarily on populations of European descent, but it is essential that diverse populations become better represented. Increasing diversity among study participants will advance our understanding of genetic architecture in all populations and ensure that genetic research is broadly applicable. To facilitate and promote research in multi-ancestry and admixed cohorts, we outline key methodological considerations and highlight opportunities, challenges, solutions, and areas in need of development. Despite the perception that analyzing genetic data from diverse populations is difficult, it is scientifically and ethically imperative, and there is an expanding analytical toolbox to do it well

Rare coding variants in ten genes confer substantial risk for schizophrenia

Rare coding variation has historically provided the most direct connections between gene function and disease pathogenesis. By meta-analysing the whole exomes of 24,248 schizophrenia cases and 97,322 controls, we implicate ultra-rare coding variants (URVs) in 10 genes as conferring substantial risk for schizophrenia (odds ratios of 3-50, PPeer reviewe