Capital inflows and asset prices: evidence from emerging Asia : [Version 4 September 2012]

The withdrawal of foreign capital from emerging countries at the height of the recent financial crisis and its quick return sparked a debate about the impact of capital flow surges on asset markets. This paper addresses the response of property prices to an inflow of foreign capital. For that purpose we estimate a panel VAR on a set of Asian emerging market economies, for which the waves of inflows were particularly pronounced, and identify capital inflow shocks based on sign restrictions. Our results suggest that capital inflow shocks have a significant effect on the appreciation of house prices and equity prices. Capital inflow shocks account for - roughly - twice the portion of overall house price changes they explain in OECD countries. We also address crosscountry differences in the house price responses to shocks, which are most likely due to differences in the monetary policy response to capital inflows

Robust Monetary Policy with the Cost Channel

Recent research argues that model uncertainty leads the central bank to adjust interest rates stronger to exogenous disturbances than under certainty. This paper investigates whether the introduction of a cost channel of monetary transmission, whose presence is empirically supported, changes the impact of model uncertainty on interest rate setting. The basic model is simple enough to facilitate an analytical closed form solution. We find that the presence of the cost channel dampens the effect of model uncertainty on interest rate setting and can even offset the activist policy stance. In this case, the conventional result is reversed and uncertainty induces an attenuated interest rate policy. A richer dynamic model corroborates these findings.model uncertainty, robust control, cost channel, optimal monetary policy, Brainard conservatism, Tillmann

Inflation Targeting and Regional Inflation Persistence: Evidence from Korea

The adoption of a credible monetary policy regime such as inflation targeting is known to reduce the persistence of inflation fluctuations. This conclusion, however, is derived from aggregate inflation or sectoral inflation rates, not from regional inflation data. This paper studies the regional dimension of inflation targeting, i.e. the consequences of inflation targeting for regional inflation persistence. Based on data for Korean cities and provinces it is shown that the adoption of inflation targeting leads (i) to a fall in inflation persistence at the regional level and (ii) to a reduction in the cross-regional heterogeneity in inflation persistence. A common factor model lends further support to the role of the common component, and hence monetary policy, for regional inflation persistence.inflation targeting, inflation persistence, monetary policy regime, regional inflation, factor model

The Fed’s perceived Phillips curve: Evidence from individual FOMC forecasts

This note uncovers the Phillips curve trade-off perceived by U.S. monetary policymakers. For that purpose we use data on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made available for the period 1992-1998. The results point to significant changes in the perceived trade-off over time with the Phillips curve flattening and the implied NAIRU falling towards the second half of the sample. Hence, the results suggest that policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time.inflation forecast, NAIRU, Phillips curve, monetary policy, Federal Reserve

Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the US Term Structure of Interest Rates

To date the cointegrating properties and the regime-switching behavior of the term structure are two separate strands of the literature. This paper integrates these lines of research and introduces regime shifts into a cointegrated VAR model. We argue that the short-run dynamics of the cointegrated model are likely to shift across regimes while the equilibrium relation implied by the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is robust to regime shifts. A Markov-switching VECM approach for U.S. data outperforms a linear VECM. We find significant shifts in risk premia and interest rate volatility. These regime shifts reflect changing inflation expectations and shifts in monetary policy, respectivelyterm structure, expectations hypothesis, cointegration, Markov-switching, monetary policy

Do FOMC members believe in Okun's Law?

This paper uses data on forecasts for unemployment and GDP growth submitted by each individual FOMC member to uncover members' beliefs about Okuns's Law. The results suggest that the perceived relationship between unemployment and real growth weakened significantly since the mid-1990s.GDP forecast, unemployment forecast, Okun's Law, Federal Reserve

Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates

To date the cointegrating properties and the regime-switching behavior of the term structure are two separate strands of the literature. This paper integrates these lines of research and introduces regime shifts into a cointegrated VAR model. We argue that the short run dynamics of the cointegrated model are likely to shift across regimes while the equilibrium relation implied by the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is robust to regime shifts. A Markov-switching VECM approach for U.S. data outperforms a linear VECM. Moreover, the regime shifts in the risk premium and the equilibrium adjustment reflect shifts in monetary policy.term structure, expectations hypothesis, cointegration, Markov-switching, monetary policy

The Regime-Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials

Once you allow for persistence in macroeconomic variables, two aspects of exchange rate credibility emerge whose relative importance can vary over time. Hence, the effect of policy measures on interest rate differentials becomes ambiguous. In this paper, a Markov-switching VAR that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent determination of credibility for major EMS countries. The model separates two regimes that are distinct with respect to the time series properties of the interest rate spread. Regime-dependent impulse response functions reveal substantial differences in the response of spreads to macroeconomic shocks across regimes.Regime-switching; VAR; interest rate differentials; regime-dependent impulse response functions; credibility

Strategic Forecasting on the FOMC

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve consists of voting- and non-voting members. Apart from deciding about interest rate policy, members individually formulate regular inflation forecasts. This paper uncovers systematic differences in individual inflation forecasts submitted by voting and non-voting members. Based on a data set with individual forecasts recently made available it is shown that non-voters systematically overpredict inflation relative to the consensus forecast if they favor tighter policy and underpredict inflation if the favor looser policy. These findings are consistent with non-voting member following strategic motives in forecasting, i.e. non-voting members use their forecast to influence policy deliberation.inflation forecast, forecast errors, monetary policy, monetary committee, Federal Reserve

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in Europe: does it fit or does it fail?

The canonical New Keynesian model specifies inflation as the present-value of future real marginal cost. This paper tests this New Keynesian Phillips Curve and exploits projections of future real marginal cost generated by VAR models to assess the model's ability to match the behavior of actual inflation. In accordance to the literature, the model fits Euro data well at first sight. However, analyses of this kind disregard the considerable degree of uncertainty surrounding VAR forecasts. A set of bias-corrected bootstrapped confidence bands reveals that this result is consistent with both a well fitting and a completely failing model. Allowing for inflation inertia through backward-looking indexation narrows confidence bands around measures of the model's fit but, still, cannot generate sufficiently precise estimates. Hence, we cannot say whether the model fits or fails. --New Keynesian Phillips Curve,present-value model,marginal cost,VAR,bootstrap