A New Measure of Core Inflation

While the Bank of Canada's inflation-control target is specified in terms of the rate of increase in the total consumer price index, the Bank uses a measure of trend or "core" inflation as a short-term guide for its monetary policy actions. When the inflation targets were renewed in May 2001, the Bank announced that it was adopting a new measure of core inflation. This measure excludes the eight most volatile components of the CPI and adjusts the remaining components for the effect of changes in indirect taxes. In this article, the author discusses the definition of the new measure of core inflation and describes some of its advantages relative to the previous measure. He notes that the new measure has a firmer statistical basis, has a better correspondence with economic theory, and does a better job of predicting future changes in overall inflation. While the new measure has these advantages, the Bank will continue to monitor a broad range of indicators when assessing the likely future path for inflation.

Information and Analysis for Monetary Policy: Coming to a Decision

This article outlines one of the Bank's key approaches to dealing with the uncertainty that surrounds decisions on monetary policy: the consideration of a wide range of information from a variety of sources. More specifically, it describes the information and analysis that the monetary policy decision-makers—the Governing Council of the Bank of Canada—receive in the two or three weeks leading up to a decision on the setting of the policy rate—the target overnight interest rate. The article also describes how the Governing Council reaches this decision.

Commentary : central bank communication and policy effectiveness

Greenspan, Alan ; Monetary policy ; Banks and banking, Central

Some macroeconomic implications of rising levels of government debt

The level of government debt in Canada relative to gross domestic product has risen steadily since the mid-1970s. Canada has not been alone in experiencing rising government indebtedness, but in comparison to other countries, Canada's debt load is now distinctly on the high side. The author reviews some of the effects of rising government debt levels on macroeconomic performance and provides some calculations aimed at illustrating their possible long-run impact on the Canadian economy. His analysis, which is based on a model of the Canadian economy used at the Bank of Canada, suggests that higher levels of government debt reduce both the level of output and the share of output that is available for domestic consumption. The central policy implication is that there are substantial benefits to halting the rise in government debt and thus preventing further erosion of consumption opportunities.

Price stability, inflation targets, and monetary policy: Conference summary

This article summarizes the proceedings of a conference hosted by the Bank of Canada in May 1997. The first conference held by the Bank on this subject was in 1993, two years after the introduction of inflation targeting in Canada. The 1997 conference revisited many of the analytic issues related to price stability that had been examined at the first conference, while also considering several additional questions. This time, with the extension of inflation-control targets beyond 1998 under consideration, particular emphasis was placed on the role and design of those targets. The conference also featured a round-table discussion among practitioners of monetary policy in three inflation-targeting countries -- New Zealand, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Their remarks, which focussed on the experience with inflation targets, bring out very clearly the common challenges facing monetary policymakers in open economies.

Monetary policy in the context of COVID-19

Speech announcing a shift in the direction of the GBPP and explicitly labeling it as quantitative easing (QE

Future Productivity Growth in Canada: Comparing to the United States

In this second contribution to the Symposium included in this volume on Future Productivity in Canada, Tiff Macklem of the Bank of Canada compares sources of recent productivity growth in Canada and the United States. Macklem sees aggregate labour productivity growth in Canada advancing at around a 2 per cent average annual rate in the medium term. This view is based on the increased share of machinery and equipment investment in GDP, Canada's high degree of exposure to international trade and investment, the supportive macro-economic environment of low inflation and improved fiscal positions, increased spillovers from rapid and sustained U.S. productivity growth, and the significant gap between Canadian and U.S. productivity levels, which suggests potential for catch-up.Canada, Labour Productivity Growth, United States, Machinery, Equipment , Investment, Human Capital, Growth Accounting, Openness, Trade, Research, Development