A Bayesian phase 2 model based adaptive design to optimise antivenom dosing: Application to a dose-finding trial for a novel Russell's viper antivenom in Myanmar

For most antivenoms there is little information from clinical studies to infer the relationship between dose and efficacy or dose and toxicity. Antivenom dose-finding studies usually recruit too few patients (e.g. fewer than 20) relative to clinically significant event rates (e.g. 5%). Model based adaptive dose-finding studies make efficient use of accrued patient data by using information across dosing levels, and converge rapidly to the contextually defined 'optimal dose'. Adequate sample sizes for adaptive dose-finding trials can be determined by simulation. We propose a model based, Bayesian phase 2 type, adaptive clinical trial design for the characterisation of optimal initial antivenom doses in contexts where both efficacy and toxicity are measured as binary endpoints. This design is illustrated in the context of dose-finding for Daboia siamensis (Eastern Russell's viper) envenoming in Myanmar. The design formalises the optimal initial dose of antivenom as the dose closest to that giving a pre-specified desired efficacy, but resulting in less than a pre-specified maximum toxicity. For Daboia siamensis envenoming, efficacy is defined as the restoration of blood coagulability within six hours, and toxicity is defined as anaphylaxis. Comprehensive simulation studies compared the expected behaviour of the model based design to a simpler rule based design (a modified '3+3' design). The model based design can identify an optimal dose after fewer patients relative to the rule based design. Open source code for the simulations is made available in order to determine adequate sample sizes for future adaptive snakebite trials. Antivenom dose-finding trials would benefit from using standard model based adaptive designs. Dose-finding trials where rare events (e.g. 5% occurrence) are of clinical importance necessitate larger sample sizes than current practice. We will apply the model based design to determine a safe and efficacious dose for a novel lyophilised antivenom to treat Daboia siamensis envenoming in Myanmar

Inadequate knowledge about snakebite envenoming symptoms and application of harmful first aid methods in the community in high snakebite incidence areas of Myanmar

INTRODUCTION: Every year millions of people in developing countries suffer from snakebite, causing a large number of deaths and long term complications. Prevention and appropriate first aid could reduce the incidence and improve the health outcomes for those who suffer bites. However, many communities where snakebite is a major issue suffer from a lack of information about prevention and first aid measures that a family or community member could take to prevent severe envenoming, complications and poor outcomes. Myanmar suffers from a high burden of snakebites with a large number of deaths. As part of a health services and community development program, a community survey was conducted to identify communities' knowledge about snakebite and their sequelae, and knowledge and practice about first aid and health services use. METHOD: 4,276 rural residents of Kyaukse and Madaya townships in the Mandalay region were recruited by cluster sampling, involving random selection of 144 villages and random sampling of 30 households from each village. One adult member of each household was interviewed using a structured questionnaire. RESULTS: The incidence of snakebite was 116/100,000 people. Respondents reported 15 different types of snakes in the area, with Russell's Viper, Cobra and Green snakes as the most common. 88% of the people informed that working in the fields and forests was when most of the bites occur. A majority knew about snakebite prevention methods such as wearing long boots. However, only a few people knew about the specific symptoms caused by snakebites. Only 39% knew about the correct methods of first aid. More than 60% mentioned tourniquet as a first aid method, though this may cause significant complications such as ischaemia of the limb. 88% said that they would take a snakebite victim to a government hospital, and 58% mentioned availability of antivenom as the reason for doing this. At the same time, the majority mentioned that traditional methods existed for first aid and treatment and 25% mentioned at least one harmful traditional method as an effective measure that they might use. CONCLUSION: The community is aware of snakebites as a major public health issue and know how to prevent them. However, the high incidence of snakebites point to lack of application of preventive methods. The community recognise the need for treatment with antivenom. However, inadequate knowledge about appropriate first aid methods, and a reliance on using tourniquets require a targeted education program. Existing knowledge in communities, albeit insufficient, provides a good starting point for mass media educational campaigns.</p