Geomagnetic extreme statistics for Europe

Rapidly changing geomagnetic field variations constitute a natural hazard, for example to grounded power grids and pipeline networks. To understand this hazard we have continuous magnetic measurements across the world for typically less than 100 years. Much of the older data is also in analogue form, or is only available digitally as hourly or daily magnetic indices or mean levels. So it may not yet be clear what the true extremes in geomagnetic variation are, particularly on time scales - seconds to minutes - that are relevant for estimating the hazard to technological systems. We therefore use a number of decades of one minute samples of magnetic data from observatories in Europe, together with the technique of 'extreme value statistics', to explore estimated maxima in field variations in the horizontal strength and in the declination of the field. These maxima are expressed, for example, in terms of the variations that might be observed on time scales of 100 and 200 years. We also examine the extremes in the one-minute rate of change of these field components on similar time scales. The results should find application in hazard assessment and navigation applications

Quantifying extreme behaviour in geomagnetic activity

Understanding the extremes in geomagnetic activity is an important component in understanding just how severe conditions can become in the terrestrial space environment. Extreme activity also has consequences for technological systems. On the ground, extreme geomagnetic behavior has an impact on navigation and position accuracy and the operation of power grids and pipeline networks. We therefore use a number of decades of one-minute mean magnetic data from magnetic observatories in Europe, together with the technique of extreme value statistics, to provide a preliminary exploration of the extremes in magnetic field variations and their one-minute rates of change. These extremes are expressed in terms of the variations that might be observed every 100 and 200 years in the horizontal strength and in the declination of the field. We find that both measured and extrapolated extreme values generally increase with geomagnetic latitude (as might be expected), though there is a marked maximum in estimated extreme levels between about 53 and 62 degrees north. At typical midlatitude European observatories (55–60 degrees geomagnetic latitude), compass variations may reach approximately 3–8 degrees/minute, and horizontal field changes may reach 1000–4000 nT/minute, in one magnetic storm once every 100 years. For storm return periods of 200 years the equivalent figures are 4–11 degrees/minute and 1000–6000 nT/minute

High-Q spectral peaks and nonstationarity in the deep ocean infragravity wave band: Tidal harmonics and solar normal modes

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 124(3), (2019):2072-2087, doi:10.1029/2018JC014586.Infragravity waves have received the least study of any class of waves in the deep ocean. This paper analyzes a 389‐day‐long deep ocean pressure record from the Hawaii Ocean Mixing Experiment for the presence of narrowband (≲2 μHz) components and nonstationarity over 400–4,000 μHz using a combination of fitting a mixture noncentral/central χ2 model to spectral estimates, high‐resolution multitaper spectral estimation, and computation of the offset coherence between distinct frequencies for a given data segment. In the frequency band 400–1,000 μHz there is a noncentral fraction of 0.67 ± 0.07 that decreases with increasing frequency. Evidence is presented for the presence of tidal harmonics in the data over the 400‐ to 1,400‐μHz bands. Above ~2,000 μHz the noncentral fraction rises with frequency, comprising about one third of the spectral estimates over 3,000–4,000 μHz. The power spectrum exhibits frequent narrowband peaks at 6–11 standard deviations above the noise level. The widths of the peaks correspond to a Q of at least 1,000, vastly exceeding that of any oceanic or atmospheric process. The offset coherence shows that the spectral peaks have substantial (p = 0.99–0.9999) interfrequency correlation, both locally and between distinct peaks within a given analysis band. Many of the peak frequencies correspond to the known values for solar pressure modes that have previously been observed in solar wind and terrestrial data, while others are the result of nonstationarity that distributes power across frequency. Overall, this paper documents the existence of two previously unrecognized sources of infragravity wave variability in the deep ocean.This work was supported at WHOI by an Independent Research and Development award and the Walter A. and Hope Noyes Smith Chair for Excellence in Oceanography. At the University of Hawaii, Martin Guiles provided a number of consequential data analyses, and work was supported by NSF‐OCE1460022. D. J. T. acknowledges support from Queen's University and NSERC. The data used in this study are available from the supporting information.2019-08-2

A novel weighting method for satellite magnetic data and a new global magnetic field model

A new data weighting scheme is introduced for satellite geomagnetic survey data. Data weights for individual satellite samples at 20-s spacing are derived from two ‘noise’ (or unmodelled signal) estimators for the sample. First, the standard deviation along the 20 s of satellite track, centred on each sample, is computed as a measure of local magnetic activity. Second a larger-scale noise estimator is defined in terms of a ‘local area vector activity’ (LAVA) index for the sample. This is derived from activity measured at the geographically nearest magnetic observatories to the sample point. Weighting of the satellite data by the inverse-sum-of-squares of these noise estimators then leads to a robust model of the field, the ‘Model of Earth’s Magnetic Environment 2008’, or MEME08, to about spherical harmonic degree 60. Our approach allows vector samples of the field to be used at all magnetic latitudes and, for example, results in a lithospheric magnetic field model with low spectral noise, comparable with other recent global models. We also do not require a particularly complex model parametrization, regularization, or prior data correction to remove estimates of unmodelled source fields

The Modifying Effects of Galactomannan from Canadian-Grown Fenugreek (Trigonella foenum-graecum L.) on the Glycemic and Lipidemic Status in Rats

Using high sucrose-fed male Sprague-Dawley rats, a study was conducted to determine the effects of feeding Galactomannan (GAL), a soluble dietary fiber extracted from Canadian-grown fenugreek seeds, on blood lipid and glucose responses. Rats (n = 8, 175–200 g) were randomly assigned to one of three high sucrose diets containing 10% cellulose (control), 7.5% cellulose + 2.5% GAL, and 5% cellulose + 5% GAL, respectively for 4 weeks. After 3 weeks, an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed on each rat. A week later blood samples were collected to determine the effect on blood lipids. A significant reduction in glycemic response was observed only in 5% GAL group at 120 min following OGTT, when compared with that of control and 2.5% GAL groups. The plasma level of insulin was also significantly reduced (p<0.001) in 5% GAL-fed rats but at all times during OGTT. These animals also showed a reduction in body weight gain (p<0.05) in parallel with less food intake (p<0.05). All GAL-fed (2.5% and 5.0%) rats had significantly reduced plasma levels of triglycerides and total cholesterol in association with a reduction in epididymal adipose weight. Overall, this study demonstrated that feeding GAL from Canadian-grown fenugreek seeds has the potential to alter glycemic and lipidemic status and reduce abdominal fat in normal rats

Horizontal and vertical structure of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud over the UK: a comparison of airborne lidar observations and simulations

During April and May 2010 the ash cloud from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull caused widespread disruption to aviation over northern Europe. The location and impact of the eruption led to a wealth of observations of the ash cloud were being obtained which can be used to assess modelling of the long range transport of ash in the troposphere. The UK FAAM (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) BAe-146-301 research aircraft overflew the ash cloud on a number of days during May. The aircraft carries a downward looking lidar which detected the ash layer through the backscatter of the laser light. In this study ash concentrations derived from the lidar are compared with simulations of the ash cloud made with NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), a general purpose atmospheric transport and dispersion model. The simulated ash clouds are compared to the lidar data to determine how well NAME simulates the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash clouds. Comparison between the ash concentrations derived from the lidar and those from NAME is used to define the fraction of ash emitted in the eruption that is transported over long distances compared to the total emission of tephra. In making these comparisons possible position errors in the simulated ash clouds are identified and accounted for. The ash layers seen by the lidar considered in this study were thin, with typical depths of 550–750 m. The vertical structure of the ash cloud simulated by NAME was generally consistent with the observed ash layers, although the layers in the simulated ash clouds that are identified with observed ash layers are about twice the depth of the observed layers. The structure of the simulated ash clouds were sensitive to the profile of ash emissions that was assumed. In terms of horizontal and vertical structure the best results were obtained by assuming that the emission occurred at the top of the eruption plume, consistent with the observed structure of eruption plumes. However, early in the period when the intensity of the eruption was low, assuming that the emission of ash was uniform with height gives better guidance on the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash cloud. Comparison of the lidar concentrations with those from NAME show that 2–5% of the total mass erupted by the volcano remained in the ash cloud over the United Kingdom

A characterization of periodicity in the voltage time series of a riometer

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 125(7), (2020): e2019JA027160, doi:10.1029/2019JA027160.This paper reveals unprecedented periodicity in the voltage series of relative ionospheric opacity meters (riometers) of the Canadian Riometer Array (CRA). In quiet times, the riometer voltage series is accurately modeled by a stochastic process whose components include both a six term expansion in harmonic functions and some amplitude modulated modes of lower signal to noise ratio (SNR). In units of cycles per sidereal day (cpsd), the frequencies of the six harmonic functions lie within 0.01 cpsd of an integer. Earth's rotation induces a splitting of the low SNR components, resulting in the appearance of nine multiplets in standardized power spectrum estimates of the considered CRA voltage series. A second feature of these spectrum estimates is a 6 min periodic element appearing in both the CRA voltage series and the proton mass density series of the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). Spectral peak frequencies have been detected, which lie near established solar mode frequency estimates. In addition, some of these peak frequency estimates are coincident with peak frequency estimates of the standardized power spectra for the time series of proton mass density and interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF) at ACE.“Marshall_Francois_Supporting_Information_JGR_2019.pdf” contains a summary of the supporting information. The 1 hr sampled F10.7 series was obtained from DRAO (National Research Council, 2017). The three MAG time series of IMF strength were acquired from The ACE Science Center (2007), while the SWEPAM time series of proton mass density was acquired from Space Weather Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (2018). The relevant data sets for the analysis of this paper are included in Marshall (2019). This work was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC), Canadian Statistical Sciences Institute (CANSSI), Bonneyville Power Authority, and Queen's University. David J. Thomson, the official holder of the grants and contracts, provided research and conference funding to advance this project. Special thanks to Ken F. Tapping (DRAO of NRCan) for his guidance in finding the data sets relevant to solar radio emissions. Glen Takahara, of the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Queen's University, suggested exploring different data sets to confirm the modal origin of spectral peaks observed in the Ottawa riometer of the CRA. Alessandra A. Pacini of the Arecibo Observatory recommended checking to see if some of the modes could have been driven by the harmonics of Earth's rotation. Frank Vernon of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at Scripps Institution of Oceanography confirmed how seismic data could be expected to reveal coincident spectral peaks at the detected frequencies in the riometer standardized spectra.2020-10-2

Infectious Ideas: Modelling the Diffusion of Ideas Across Social Networks

Will the practice of collecting wild honey while wearing no clothes become a widespread practice in Zimbabwe? Or will beekeeping take over as the main way that people acquire honey? Both practices impact on forest resources; how can the foresters influence the uptake of these ideas? This paper describes an exploratory modelling study investigating how social network patterns affect the way ideas spread around communities. It concludes that increasing the density of social networks increases the spread of successful ideas whilst speeding the loss of ideas with no competitive advantage. Some different kinds of competitive advantage are explored in the context of forest management and rural extension

Ganglioside Alters Phospholipase Trafficking, Inhibits NF-κB Assembly, and Protects Tight Junction Integrity

Background and Aims: Dietary gangliosides are present in human milk and consumed in low amounts from organ meats. Clinical and animal studies indicate that dietary gangliosides attenuate signaling processes that are a hallmark of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Gangliosides decrease pro-inflammatory markers, improve intestinal permeability, and reduce symptoms characteristic in patients with IBD. The objective of this study was to examine mechanisms by which dietary gangliosides exert beneficial effects on intestinal health. Methods: Studies were conducted in vitro using CaCo-2 intestinal epithelial cells. Gangliosides were extracted from milk powder and incubated with differentiated CaCo-2 cells after exposure to pro-inflammatory stimuli. Gut barrier integrity was assessed by electron microscopy, epithelial barrier function was examined by measuring transepithelial electric resistance, and content of HBD-2, IL-23, NF-κB, and sPLA2 was assessed by ELISA. Results: Ganglioside attenuated the decrease in integrity of tight junctions induced by pro-inflammatory stimuli and improved epithelial barrier function (P \u3c 0.05). Ganglioside decreased the basolateral secretion of sPLA2 (P ≤ 0.05), lowered HBD-2 and IL-23 levels (P ≤ 0.05), and inhibited NF-κB activation (P ≤ 0.05). Conclusions: In summary, the present study indicates that ganglioside GD3 improves intestinal integrity by altering sPLA2 trafficking, and the production of pro-inflammatory mediators is mitigated by decreasing assembly of the NF-κB complex. Dietary gangliosides may have promising potential beneficial effects in IBD as decreased inflammatory signaling, improved intestinal integrity, and maintenance of epithelial barrier function have been demonstrated in vitro