Stylised facts of economic growth in developing countries

This paper offers a concise survey on the literature of growth empirics applying to DCs. It is argued that there is a number of important stylised facts of economic growth relevant to DCs which are not included in the corresponding lists of Kaldor and Romer. In contrary to the usual procedure, the growth rates of per capita income are calculated by employing potential output, which is determined by the use of the Hodrick-Prescott-filter. Finally, three important conclusions resulting from the empirical observations are discussed in the last section. --Stylised Facts,Economic Growth,Developing Countries,Growth Empirics

On the Mechanics of Economic Convergence

In macroeconomic dynamic models the speed at which output converges to its steady state is of outstanding interest. Theoretical investigations usually focus on the asymptotic speed of convergence only. This procedure is, however, unnecessarily restrictive and hides important information. The paper at hand provides a straightforward and simple analytical decomposition of the instantaneous rate of convergence into its economic determinants. In addition, the resulting convergence-accounting formula is applied to analyse the transition process of a general R&D-based endogenous growth model. As a result, the driving forces behind the convergence process are identified.Convergence accounting, rate of convergence, decomposition, convergence mechanisms, R&D-based growth

Economic Growth and Sectoral Change under Resource Reallocation Costs

A general growth model with explicit resource reallocation costs is set up. A new feature is the property of hysteresis (i.e. a continuum of stationary equilibria) in closed-economy growth models. Employing a linear model the hysteresis range and the consequences for the long-run growth rate are determined analytically. The most important conclusions are the following: (1) An economy’s long-run position may depend critically on the initial intersectoral allocation pattern as well as on the efficiency of the resource reallocation sector; (2) if we interpret the resource reallocation sector as a specific part of the education sector, there is a straightforward possibility for the government to reduce the range of hysteresis and hence the dependence on initial conditions; (3) international trade is an important device to overcome the negative consequences of high resource reallocation costs for long-run growth.Sectoral change; economic growth; resource reallocation costs; hysteresis; multiplicity of equilibria

History, Expectations, and Public Policy: Economic Development in Eastern Germany

Motivated by the process of economic development in Eastern Germany since the German reunification we set up a dynamic macroeconomic model of a small open economy where both capital and labor are mobile and there are increasing returns to scale at the aggregate level. The model features multiple equilibria as well as (local and global) indeterminacy. Expectations matter for resulting equilibrium dynamics, implying that economic confidence may be crucial for the process of economic development. Despite its simplicity, the model can replicate major empirical facts and bears a number of non-trivial implications.increasing returns to scale, capital mobility, migration, multiple equilibria, indeterminacy, history vs. expectations, economic policy

Growth, Development, and Technological Change

The theory of endogenous technical change has deeply contributed to our understanding of the fundamental sources of economic growth and development. In this chapter we survey important contributions in the field by focussing on the basic structure of endogenous growth models with horizontal as well as vertical innovation and emphasizing important implications for growth policy. We address issues like the scale effect problem, directed technological change to understand the evolution of wage inequality, long-run divergence between the innovating North and the imitating South due to inappropriate technology in the South, the relationship between trade and growth, competition and R&D, and the role of imperfect capital markets for R&D-based growth.endogenous technical change, economic growth, horizontal innovations, scale effects, vertical innovations

Journey into the Unknown? Economic Consequences of Factor Market Integration under Increasing Returns to Scale

What are the dynamic consequences of comprehensive integration shocks? The answer to this question appears all but trivial. We set up a dynamic macroeconomic model of a small open economy where both capital and labor are mobile and there are increasing returns to scale at the aggregate level. The model features multiple equilibria as well as (local and global) indeterminacy. Hence, expectations matter for resulting equilibrium dynamics. Despite its simplicity, the model creates a rich set of plausible implications. Our analysis contributes to a better understanding of the interaction between expectations and fundamentals in models with indeterminacy. The model is applied to replicate two striking empirical characteristics of macroeconomic development in East Germany since 1991.increasing returns to scale, capital mobility, migration, multiple equilibria, indeterminacy, history vs. expectations

The Lucas Paradox and the quality of institutions: then and now

In the first era of financial globalization (1880-1914), global capital market integration led to substantial net capital movements from rich to poor economies. The historical experience stands in contrast to the contemporary globalization where gross capital mobility is equally high, but did not incite a substantial transfer of savings from rich to poor economies. Using data for the historical and modern periods we extend Lucas (1990) original model and show that differences in institutional quality between rich and poor countries can account for the sharply divergent patterns of international capital movements. --capital market integration,financial globalization,economic history

Does Financial Integration Spur Economic Growth? New Evidence from the First Era of Financial Globalization

Does international financial integration boost economic growth? The question has been discussed controversially for a long time, and a large number of studies has been devoted to its empirical investigation. As of yet, robust evidence for a positive impact of capital market integration on economic growth is lacking, as documented by Edison et al. (2002). However, there is substantial narrative evidence from economic history that highlights the contribution European capital made to economic growth of peripheral economies during the so-called first age of financial globalization before 1914. For this paper, we have compiled the first comprehensive data set to test econometrically if capital market integration had a positive impact on economic growth before WW1. Using the same models and techniques as contemporary studies, we show that there was indeed a significant and robust growth effect of international financial integration in the first era of financial globalization. Our temptative explanation for this marked difference between now and then stresses property rights protection as a prerequisite for the standard neoclassical model to work properly.International financial integration; Economic growth; First era of globalization.

A Dynamic Model of the Environmental Kuznets Curve : Turning Point and Public Poliy

We set up a simple dynamic macroeconomic model with (i) polluting consump- tion and a preference for a clean environment, (ii) increasing returns in abate- ment giving rise to an EKC and (iii) sustained growth resulting from a linear final-output technology. The model captures two sorts of market failures caused by external effects associated with consumption and environmental effort. This model is employed to investigate the determinants of the turning point and the (relative) effectiveness of different public policy measures aimed at a reduction of the environmental burden. Moreover, the model offers a potential explana- tion of an N-shaped pollution-income relation. Finally, it is shown that the model is compatible with most empirical regularities on economic growth and the environment.Environmental Kuznets Curve, Pollution, Abatement, External Ef- fects, Economic Growth, Public Policy

Globalization, the volatility of intermediate goods prices and economic growth

We set up a dynamic stochastic model of a stylized economy comprising a final output sector (with traditional and modern firms) and an intermediate goods sector. It is shown that market integration reduces the volatility of the rate of return of capital invested in modern firms. The induced portfolio decision of households then leads to reallocation of capital from traditional to modern firms. Despite the presence of a reverse precautionary saving channel, the growth rate unambiguously increases due to the reallocation of capital. Empirical estimates for OECD countries confirm the theoretical resultsglobalization, trade in intermediate goods, portfolio decisions, economic growth