Labour market dynamics from a regional perspective : the multi-account system

"In the last years the analysis of flow figures turned out to highly informative for labour market research and policy advice. Among researchers it is a well known fact that cross-sectional information about labour market is not sufficient to understand ungoing development. A pure sequence of employment and unemployment figures would hide the turnover in the market. Here we follow the useful analytical framework of transitional labour markets dealing centrally with flow figures. By developing the multiaccount system (MAS) we go some steps ahead compared to indicators like job and labour turnover rates. First we combine the information of administrative data of the micro level with macro data containing pupils, self employed, retired persons. Embedded in an external framework, which is given by demography (birth, death, moving in and out), the MAS describes the transition process of the labour market on the regional level and contains all 180 local employment agencies in Germany. The multiaccount system thus serves as a basis for strategically aligning each agency with the individual local situation of the labour market by explicitly taking into account the regional specifics. Thus it helps for future strategic decisions of active labour market policy. The creation of models for supporting regional monitoring and benchmarking is already far advanced and initial basic versions are tested in practice. For estimating the unknown transitions of the data matrix we use a new algorithm the so called ADETON tool, which has the additional merit comparing to other entropy maximizing methods, that constraints can be formulated in a fuzzy way rather than exactly. Further we demonstrate on the basis of the agency Heilbronn some practice and numerical examples. Thus we present transitions into and out of unemployment and also from vocational training to employment. We believe that the analytical potential of this instrument is not yet exhausted. In any event, it is already clear that the information content of this model by far exceeds that of a system of individual indicators. Details and relations of the regional labour market become apparent which show a high-resolution image of possible obsolete structures or increasing labour market dynamics. The model thus gives clear hints as to the scope and limits of the active labour market policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitskräftemobilität, labour turnover, job turnover, Berufsverlauf, Arbeitslosigkeit, Erwerbstätigkeit, arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahme, regionale Disparität

Dynamik am Arbeitsmarkt: Viel Bewegung trotz Flaute

Auch bei wirtschaftlicher Schwäche und hohem Arbeitslosenbestand gibt es beachtliche Ströme zwischen Erwerbsarbeit, Arbeitslosigkeit und Nichterwerbstätigkeit. So gab es 2002 6,15 Mio. Zugänge und 5,77 Mio. Abgänge aus Arbeitslosigkeit. Von den Abgängern aus Arbeitslosigkeit gingen gut die Hälfte in abhängige Beschäftigung über, darunter rund 430.000 mit finanziellen Hilfen der Bundesanstalt für Arbeit. Die Übergänge in Maßnahmen der BA nahmen 2002 zu, und die Aufnahme einer selbständigen Tätigkeit wurde vermehrt gefördert. Aber auch die Übergange in die Stille Reserve und die Nichterwerbstätigkeit stiegen stark an. Neben der schlechten Konjunktur spielen hier auch Forderungen nach mehr Eigeninitiative der Arbeitslosen eine zunehmende Rolle. Allerdings gibt es auch Gegenströme, die auf gewisse "Drehtüreffekte" hinweisen. Neben erheblicher Dynamik gibt es am Arbeitsmarkt aber auch Verkrustung: Im Dezember 2002 waren etwa 32 % aller Arbeitslosen seit mindestens einem Jahr arbeitslos. Dies stellt eine erhebliche arbeitsmarkt- und sozialpolitische Herausforderung dar

They are even larger! More (on) puzzling labor market volatilities

"This paper shows that the German labor market is more volatile than the US labor market at the business cycle frequency. Specifically, the volatility of the cyclical component of several labor market variables (e.g., the job-finding rate, the labor market tightness and vacancies) divided by the volatility of labor productivity is roughly twice as large as in the United States. We derive and simulate a simple model to explain this seemingly puzzling result. This new model provides explanations for this phenomenon, in particular the longer job tenure in Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitsmarktindikatoren - internationaler Vergleich, Beschäftigungsschwankung, offene Stellen, Arbeitsproduktivität, Konjunkturabhängigkeit, Betriebszugehörigkeit, Beschäftigungsdauer, Arbeitslosenquote, labour turnover, Kündigung - Quote, Lohnhöhe, institutionelle Faktoren, Lohnfindung, matching - Quote, Produktivitätsentwicklung, USA, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Arbeitsmarktentwicklung im Konjunkturverlauf: Nicht zuletzt eine Frage der Einstellungen

Die Dynamik auf dem Arbeitsmarkt wird häufig unterschätzt. Auch im Aufschwung werden viele Mitarbeiter entlassen, ebenso wie in der Krise viele Mitarbeiter eingestellt werden. Insgesamt schwankt die Zahl der Neueinstellungen im Konjunkturverlauf stärker als die der beendeten Beschäftigungsverhältnisse. Ein Vergleich des Arbeitsmarktgeschehens in den Aufschwung- und Abschwungphasen seit 1998 zeigt deutliche Unterschiede zwischen den Konjunkturzyklen. In den letzten Jahren trug die Zeitarbeitsbranche - bei hoher Fluktuation - einen erheblichen Teil zum Aufbau der Beschäftigung bei. Im Rechtskreis des SGB II ist die Arbeitsmarktdynamik nur halb so groß wie im SGB III. Für schwer vermittelbare ALG-II-Empfänger erweist sich die Arbeitsmarktintegration selbst in Boomzeiten als schwierig. In der aktuellen Wirtschaftskrise dürfte die Fluktuation auf dem Arbeitsmarkt deutlich sinken. Deshalb werden sich die Beschäftigungsmöglichkeiten für langzeitarbeitslose Personen wieder verschlechtern

Regionale Einflussfaktoren auf die Implementation und Wirkung des Sofortprogramms zum Abbau der Jugendarbeitslosigkeit (Regional factors influencing the implementation and effect of the immediate action programme to reduce youth unemployment)

"The most important aim of the 'Federal Government's immediate action programme to reduce youth unemployment' is undoubtedly the reduction of youth unemployment and in particular long-term unemployment among young people. In this respect one may assume that in regions with poor initial situations on the labour market and apprenticeship market the possibilities of the immediate action programme for young people will also be used more intensively. Even though this thesis is confirmed, further examination makes it clear that the range of measures is used very differently in the employment office areas. The behaviour of the labour market players is determined both by structural basic conditions and by alternative possibilities, experiences and co-operation partners. The co-operation of the employment offices with relevant labour market partners is evaluated in depth in ten selected employment office areas. The immediate action programme is seen to have a positive effect on the intensity of co-operation between the employment office and the youth welfare and social assistance offices. The analysis provides first indications of intensive co-operation between the employment office and other regional players in labour market and social policy resulting in a reduction in youth unemployment. After this the effect that regional disparities and different strategies for implementing the immediate action programme in 1999 had on the development of youth unemployment and persistent unemployment among young people between 1998 and 2000 is analysed using multivariate regression models. Here the considerable influence of the general employment trend on the regional reduction of youth unemployment can be seen. Taking into account regional and structural basic conditions it becomes clear in addition that the use of the immediate action programme only explains to a small extent the differences in the regional development of youth unemployment. It is necessary to emphasise in particular the positive effects that the immediate action programme for young people has on the reduction of long-term unemployment among young people. The proportion of long-term unemployed young people fell more considerably in employment office areas which make increased use of wage subsidies and employment creation measures with partial qualificationfor young people than it did in other areas." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Jugendarbeitslosigkeit, regionale Disparität, Arbeitslosigkeitsbekämpfung, Jugendsofortprogramm - Erfolgskontrolle, Arbeitsmarktpolitik, Arbeitsamtsbezirke, Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit

Jugendliche auf dem Arbeitsmarkt: eine Analyse von Beständen und Bewegungen

Jugendliche sind auf dem Weg ins Erwerbsleben mit einer Reihe von Arbeitsmarktübergängen konfrontiert. Der Arbeitsmarkt für Jugendliche ist durch zahlreiche Arbeitslosigkeitsphasen mit vergleichsweise kurzen Dauern und einer Vielzahl arbeitsmarktpolitischer Maßnahmen geprägt. Um die Auswirkungen von Arbeitslosigkeit für die betroffenen Jugendlichen sowie für die gesamte Gesellschaft möglichst gering zu halten, lässt sich an den Arbeitsmarktübergängen ansetzen. Wie hohe und tendenziell steigende Arbeitslosenquoten und Maßzahlen zur Betroffenheit belegen, bereiten diese Übergänge vielen Jugendlichen Schwierigkeiten. Andererseits bieten Arbeitsmarktübergänge nicht nur Risiken, sondern auch Chancen, die es zu nutzen gilt. Eine vergleichende Analyse der Bestände und Bewegungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt zeigt für Jugendliche eine wesentlich höhere Arbeitslosendynamik und eine bedeutend geringere Beschäftigungsstabilität als unter den übrigen Erwerbspersonen

Labour Market in Motion - Analysing Regional Flows in a Multi-Account System

In the last years the analysis of flow figures turned out to be essential for labour market research and policy advice. The ongoing debate about how flexible is the German labour market could not been answered just analysing stock figures or turnover rates. Here we follow the useful analytical framework of transitional labour markets dealing centrally with flow figures. By developing a multi-account system (MAS) we go some steps ahead compared to indicators like job and labour turnover rates. First we combine the information of administrative data of the micro level with macro data containing pupils, self employed, retired persons. Embedded in an external framework, which is given by demography, the MAS describes the transition process of the labour market on the regional level and contains all 180 local employment agencies in Germany. The multi-account model thus serves as a basis for strategically aligning each agency with the individual local situation of the labour market by explicitly taking into account the regional specifics. Thus it helps for future strategic decisions of active labour market policy, which has been regionalized increasingly. For estimating the unknown transitions of the data matrix we use a new algorithm the so called ADETON tool, which has the additional merit comparing to other entropy maximizing methods, that constraints can be formulated in a fuzzy way rather than exactly. Further we demonstrate on the basis of three agencies (Ingolstadt, Memmingen, Halle) some practice and numerical examples concerning transitions from vocational training to the following labour market status. We state that the analytical potential of this instrument is not yet exhausted. In any event, it is already clear that the information content of this model by far exceeds that of a system of individual indicators. Details and relations of the regional labour market become apparent which show a high-resolution image of possible obsolete structures or increasing labour market dynamics. The model thus gives clear hints as to the scope and limits of the active labour market policy

Dynamik am Arbeitsmarkt aus der regionalen Perspektive: das Mehrkontenmodell als Instrument für Strategie und Steuerung

In recent years analyses based on flow quantities have become more significant both in research and in policy advice. This paper presents the multiple accounts model, designed by us, which depicts regional transition processes in all employment offices in matrix form, and can therefore also be interpreted as a regionalised population and labour force account. For the data basis, official individual data about employees, the unemployed and participants in employment and training schemes are combined with aggregate data containing information about school pupils, the self-employed and the retired. In order to estimate missing transition information, the new algorithm ADETON is used, which has the advantage over other entropy optimisation methods that it is also possible to work with inexact boundary conditions. The advantages and possible applications of the multiple accounts model are shown using three examples. The general aims of the multiple accounts model are to record the dynamics of the local labour market, to facilitate comparisons between the regions and to create a basis for the future strategic orientation of active labour market policy. On the one hand it is an instrument that can be used flexibly for scientific analyses of regional labour markets in Germany, and on the other hand it can be used by the respective employment offices for diverse questions