The quiet revolution in India's food supply chains:

There has been a rapid transformation of food supply chains in India over the past two decades. Modern retail sales are growing at 49 percent per year and quickly penetrating urban food markets and even rural markets. The food-processing sector is growing quickly while also concentrating and undergoing a rapid increase in the capital-output ratio, with little increase in employment. A modern segment is emerging in the wholesale sector, with the penetration of modern logistics firms and specialized modern wholesalers.wholesale markets, Supply chains, Farmers, Supermarkets, Food processing, logistics, cold chain, Food markets,

The quiet revolution in agrifood value chains in Asia: The case of increasing quality in rice markets in Bangladesh

In Bangladesh—one of the poorest countries in Asia, where rice accounts for almost 70 percent of consumers' caloric intake—the share of the less expensive, low-quality coarse rice is shown to be rapidly decreasing in rice markets and the quality premium for the best-quality rice has been consistently on the rise in the last decades. It thus seems that the role of rice as only a cheap staple food is being redefined. The off-farm share in the final consumer price increases from 27 percent to 35 percent to 48 percent for low-, medium-, and high-quality rice, respectively, and the increasing demand for higher quality is thus seemingly associated with a more important off-farm food sector—in particular, milling, retailing, and branding—as well as a transformed milling industry. We further find that the labor rewards for and the technical efficiency of growing different rice qualities are not significantly different, and farmers do not benefit directly from consumers' increased willingness to pay for higher rice quality.Markets, milling, Quality, rice, value chains,

Linking urban consumers and rural farmers in India: A comparison of traditional and modern food supply chains

"Food supply chains are being transformed in a number of developing countries due to widespread changes in urban food demand. To better anticipate the impact of this transformation and thus assist in the design of appropriate policies, it is important to understand the changes that are occurring in these supply chains. In a case study of India, we find that overall urban consumption is increasing; the urban food basket is shifting away from staples toward high-value products; and modern market channels (modern retail, food processing, and the food service industry) are on the rise. We document differing practices in traditional and modern food supply chains and identify an agenda for future research." from authors' abstractAgricultural marketing, Market transformation, Rural-urban linkages, Globalization, Markets,

The income gradient in mortality during the Covid-19 crisis: evidence from Belgium

We use population-wide data from linked administrative registers to study the distributional pattern of mortality before and during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in Belgium. Over the March-May 2020 study period, excess mortality is only found among those aged 65 and over. For this group, we find a significant negative income gradient in excess mortality, with excess deaths in the bottom income decile more than twice as high as in the top income decile for both men and women. However, given the high inequality in mortality in normal times, the income gradient in all-cause mortality is only marginally steeper during the peak of the health crisis when expressed in relative terms. Leveraging our individual-level data, we gauge the robustness of our results for other socioeconomic factors and decompose the role of individual vs. local effects. We provide direct evidence that geographic location effects on individual mortality are particularly strong during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, channeling through the local number of Covid infections. This makes inference about the income gradient in excess mortality based on geographic variation misguided

Essays in public and health economics

While citizens in rich countries have indisputably become healthier and richer on average, there is a general sense that this progress has not benefited everyone equally and that health and economic inequality has increased. This thesis contributes to the literature on the measurement and causes of such trends in inequalities by using newly available administrative data in the low countries Belgium and the Netherlands to document and analyze three separate dimensions of contemporary health and economic inequality. The first chapter analyzes the evolution of migrants' descendants' educational outcomes and incomes in the Netherlands, with a focus on second and third generations migrants from Morocco, Suriname and Turkey. While gaps between natives' and migrants' descendants remain large, gaps are generally smaller for later generations, and are overall decreasing. Moreover, using migrant-of-entry fixed effects, a positive effect of the length of stay of migrant families in the Netherlands on the test scores of migrants' children is established and continues after fifty years. I complement these findings with a discussion of migrants' mobility patterns and the role of intermarriage in economic integration. The second chapter concerns the choice quality of insurance contracts by individuals in the Netherlands. We study a specific attribute of the health insurance purchase decision all Dutch inhabitants make: the choice of the size of the deductible. We find that individual choice quality is strongly correlated with the education level and professional sector. Moreover, there is a strong correlation between the decision quality of an individual and those of his/her connections, as we find within-firm, location and family impacts on decision making. We document that such inequality in choice quality leads to substantial difierences in financial outcomes, and evaluate alternative policies. The third chapter analyzes the distributional pattern of mortality in Belgium during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Using population-wide administrative data, we find that there is a significant negative income gradient in excess mortality, with excess deaths in the bottom income decile more than twice as high as in the top income decile. However, compared to the inequality in mortality in normal times, the income gradient in all-cause mortality is only marginally steeper

The Transformation of Rice Value Chains in Bangladesh and India: Implications for Food Security

This paper reports the survey findings that rice value chains are transforming in Bangladesh and India. The main elements of the transformation are as follows: First, rice value chains in both countries have begun to "geographically lengthen" and "intermediationally shorten." Second, farmers capture about 60% of the final urban retail price of rice; this can be compared to about 23% in 1998 and 37% in 1980 in the United States. Third, the corollary is that about 40% of the value chain is formed by the postharvest segments of the rice value chain - in milling, trading, and retailing. Fourth, while much policy debate centers on direct government operations in food value chains, such operations were, in general, quite small in the rice value chain, except for the Government of India's purchases from mills. Fifth, the indirect roles of governments have been important in enabling change and at times in providing incentives for transformation. Sixth, government subsidies had important effects, but the evidence of accessibility to subsidies and the impact of the services were mixed. Seventh, the study points to the importance of farm input supply chains upstream from farmers and of midstream and downstream postharvest activities such as logistics and wholesale, milling, and retailing. Policy implications are drawn in the final section of the paper

The social determinants of choice quality: evidence from health insurance in the Netherlands

Market provision of impure public goods such as insurance, retirement savings and education is common and growing as policy makers seek to offer more choice and gain efficiencies. This approach induces an important trade-off between improved surplus from matching individuals to products and misallocation due to well documented choice errors in these markets. We study this trade-off in the health insurance market in the Netherlands, with a specific focus on misallocation and inequality. We characterize choice quality as a function of predicted health risk and leverage rich administrative data to study how it depends on individual human capital, socioeconomic status and social and information networks. We find that choice quality is low on average, with many people foregoing options that deliver substantive value. We also find a strong choice quality gradient with respect to key socioeconomic variables. Individuals with higher education levels and more analytic degrees or professions make markedly better decisions. Social influence on choices further increases inequality in decision making. Using panel variation in exposure to peers we find strong within firm, location and family impacts on choice quality. Finally, we use our estimates to model the consumer surplus effects of different counterfactual scenarios. While smart default policies could improve welfare substantially, including the choice of a high-deductible option delivers little welfare gain, especially for low-income individuals who make lower quality choices and are in worse health

Comparison of the Effects of Early Pregnancy with Human Interferon, Alpha 2 (IFNA2), on Gene Expression in Bovine Endometrium

Interferon tau (IFNT), a type I IFN similar to alpha IFNs (IFNA), is the pregnancy recognition signal produced by the ruminant conceptus. To elucidate specific effects of bovine IFNT and of other conceptus-derived factors, endometrial gene expression changes during early pregnancy were compared to gene expression changes after intrauterine application of human IFNA2. In experiment 1, endometrial tissue samples were obtained on Day (D) 12, D15, and D18 postmating from nonpregnant or pregnant heifers. In experiment 2, heifers were treated from D14 to D16 of the estrous cycle with an intrauterine device releasing IFNA2 or, as controls, placebo lipid extrudates or PBS only. Endometrial biopsies were performed after flushing the uterus. All samples from both experiments were analyzed with an Affymetrix Bovine Genome Array. Experiment 1 revealed differential gene expression between pregnant and nonpregnant endometria on D15 and D18. In experiment 2, IFNA2 treatment resulted in differential gene expression in the bovine endometrium. Comparison of the data sets from both studies identified genes that were differentially expressed in response to IFNA2 but not in response to pregnancy on D15 or D18. In addition, genes were found that were differentially expressed during pregnancy but not after IFNA2 treatment. In experiment 3, spatiotemporal alterations in expression of selected genes were determined in uteri from nonpregnant and early pregnant heifers using in situ hybridization. The overall findings of this study suggest differential effects of bovine IFNT compared to human IFNA2 and that some pregnancy-specific changes in the endometrium are elicited by conceptus-derived factors other than IFNT

The potato value chain in Bihar: An assessment and policy implications

Introduction. As part of the National Agricultural Innovation Project (NAIP), a potato value chain study was organized in Bihar, in collaboration between the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) in Patna, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), as potatoes are one of the core crops that the NAIP project in Bihar are focusing on. Primary surveys were fielded with producers, traders, cold storages, and retailers at the end of 2009 on the rural-urban potato value chain in Bihar, more in particular from the disadvantaged districts part of the NAIP project (Vaishali and Samastipur) to urban consumers in Patna. The most salient findings are presented below. Upstream. First, potato production in Bihar is largely in the hands of smallholders: farmers from the smallest half of potato producers cultivate 0.5 acres of potato. This compares to 1.8 acres for farmers from the largest group. Second, farmers suffer from an important late blight disease problem. Actual potato yields in 2009 were two-thirds lower than the expected yields due to that disease. Despite the incidence of this disease, reported potato yields in the districts are as high as the national level, casting doubts on the national agricultural statistics in vogue which consider Bihar a lagging potato state. Third, farmers rely relatively little on seed markets and almost all farmers store their own seeds in cold storages. Only on 18% of the plots were purchased seeds used, indicating that seed replacement ratios are about 1 out of 5 years. However, larger farmers replace seed more often. Fourth, despite the low use of seed input markets, important changes have happened over time and the white potato variety has now become much more important than the traditional red variety that was usually grown. Especially the larger farmers have switched relatively more to the white variety. Fifth, larger farmers are able to obtain higher yields, possibly because of their more intense use of inputs. Sixth, 70% of the potato farmers are now empowered by a mobile phone. While some farmers use it to do market transactions, this is still only a minority (20%). Seventh, sales in the harvest season are almost all to a village broker while in the off-season, potatoes are mostly sold to traders at the cold storage. Wholesale market sales by the farmers are of less importance. Eight, an important reason why a number, and especially the smaller, farmers sell after harvest is the urgent need of money. Little credit or advances are used in market transactions and the major reason for the choice of a trader is when he pays immediately. Ninth, while almost all farmers participate in cold storages as to store their seeds, larger farmers store relatively much more for sale at an expected higher price in the off- season. Midstream. First, an important boom in cold storage capacity - and thus in potato production - has happened in the two studied districts. The number of cold storages in the last decade doubled or tripled and rapid up-scaling of cold storages led to an even faster total capacity expansion, i.e. a triple and five-fold increase over the same period. Second, the boom is associated with increasing commercialization of potatoes from the two districts as the share of storage for seed potatoes is relatively on the decline. Third, several triggers explain the boom in this area. The rapid emergence of cold storage is linked with the better provision of public goods (such as roads, electricity, and governance), the deregulation of the cold storage sector, the investment subsidies given by national and state government, and the availability and spread of new technologies. Third, the rapid emergence and the up-scaling of cold storages are explained by important profit opportunities and high rates of returns to investments. However, cold storages charge prices that are significantly higher than those practiced in the neighboring state UP (1.5 Rs/kg versus 0.9 Rs/kg) and charges are similar to those practiced in Bangladesh where no subsidies to cold storage investments exist and where input costs (e.g. electricity and diesel) are significantly higher. While the government subsidies might have helped the farmers to have more access to cold storages, the availability of subsidies has thus not brought down the effective price paid for storage by farmers, or traders. Fourth, cold storages are currently little involved in input and credit markets with farmers and despite linkages with the banking system, little credit flows down to the farmers directly. It seems that most of the advances given by the cold storages using potatoes as collateral are thus with traders. Downstream. First, Bihar is still relying on potato imports from other states, especially UP and West Bengal but also from the Punjab, to supply potatoes to their retail markets in the off-season. Second, consumers in Bihar prefer red over white potatoes and are willing to pay a price premium for that quality. Third, potato prices in 2009 were characterized by significant variability with retail prices in the off-season twice as high as on-season. While prices in the off- season are always higher, the price hike this season was exceptional. Fourth, as the APMC has been repealed in Bihar, potato sales have moved away from auctions to direct on-on-one deals with traders. The value chain as a whole. First, wastage levels are estimated to be - and potentially have become - lower than most conventional estimates done before. The wastage level in the value chain is evaluated at 8% in the harvest period and 9.3% in the off-season. While public policies have encouraged the setting up of cold storage to bring down wastage, this might however be only one factor in influencing overall wastage levels. Farmers are often making conscious choices on the wastage they will incur and varieties that show higher wastage levels might be preferred by some farmers (because of a preference of shorter-duration cultivation periods or of varieties with less dry matter and higher yields). Second, the cost of the cold storage in the final price contributes less than 10% of the final retail price paid off-season by consumers in Patna. The most important contributor to the final retail price in the off-season is a reward to storage, which account for 40% of the final retail price. Third, the farmers’ share in the final retail price is as high as two-thirds in the harvest period, much higher than conventional estimates. This however drops to one-third in the off-season, except for these farmers that are able to postpone sales through storage. Way forward. First, the study has shown the importance of appropriate policies as to stimulate the take-off of agricultural businesses in Bihar. These policies should focus foremost on the provision of public goods such as reliable electricity, road infrastructure, and good governance. Given the still existing large deficiencies, Bihar should make further investments in this area as to allow private business to further flourish and to allow farmers in these disadvantaged districts to become better integrated in the market economy. Second, policy makers should further stimulate increased investments in the cold storage sector, but not necessarily through subsidies. More competition in the cold storage sector is desirable as to drive down the cost of storage. The further spread of cold storages as intermediaries in the potato value chains might also open some important opportunities towards upgrading the potato value chains as cold storages can serve as focal points for the distribution of better seed varieties, extension advice, marketing advice, etc. This could especially benefit smaller farmers who, because of liquidity constraints, are less willing to sell after storage and benefit from the higher prices off-season. Third, Bihar might further be a good area for the cultivation of processing varieties given its unique agro-ecological potential for those. As it is one of the areas in India where the growing period is later and where the minimum temperature during the production period is relatively high, leading to the required higher production of dry matter, the region is better suited for processing varieties than most other states in India. Given such comparative advantage, it seems that the state could benefit from the increased presence of the private sector interested in potato processing. However, some of the processing companies that are currently active in India are bringing in potato varieties (e.g. Lady Roseta, Atlantic) which might be prone to diseases that might be more difficult to control in the Indian setting. Close collaboration with local research stations as to introduce the most appropriate varieties seems thus called for. Fourth, our data illustrate the devastating effects that the late blight disease has in Bihar. The development and spread of better suited varieties by public or private research institutions seem thus of utmost importance

The potato value chain in Bihar: An assessment and policy implications

Introduction. As part of the National Agricultural Innovation Project (NAIP), a potato value chain study was organized in Bihar, in collaboration between the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) in Patna, the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), as potatoes are one of the core crops that the NAIP project in Bihar are focusing on. Primary surveys were fielded with producers, traders, cold storages, and retailers at the end of 2009 on the rural-urban potato value chain in Bihar, more in particular from the disadvantaged districts part of the NAIP project (Vaishali and Samastipur) to urban consumers in Patna. The most salient findings are presented below. Upstream. First, potato production in Bihar is largely in the hands of smallholders: farmers from the smallest half of potato producers cultivate 0.5 acres of potato. This compares to 1.8 acres for farmers from the largest group. Second, farmers suffer from an important late blight disease problem. Actual potato yields in 2009 were two-thirds lower than the expected yields due to that disease. Despite the incidence of this disease, reported potato yields in the districts are as high as the national level, casting doubts on the national agricultural statistics in vogue which consider Bihar a lagging potato state. Third, farmers rely relatively little on seed markets and almost all farmers store their own seeds in cold storages. Only on 18% of the plots were purchased seeds used, indicating that seed replacement ratios are about 1 out of 5 years. However, larger farmers replace seed more often. Fourth, despite the low use of seed input markets, important changes have happened over time and the white potato variety has now become much more important than the traditional red variety that was usually grown. Especially the larger farmers have switched relatively more to the white variety. Fifth, larger farmers are able to obtain higher yields, possibly because of their more intense use of inputs. Sixth, 70% of the potato farmers are now empowered by a mobile phone. While some farmers use it to do market transactions, this is still only a minority (20%). Seventh, sales in the harvest season are almost all to a village broker while in the off-season, potatoes are mostly sold to traders at the cold storage. Wholesale market sales by the farmers are of less importance. Eight, an important reason why a number, and especially the smaller, farmers sell after harvest is the urgent need of money. Little credit or advances are used in market transactions and the major reason for the choice of a trader is when he pays immediately. Ninth, while almost all farmers participate in cold storages as to store their seeds, larger farmers store relatively much more for sale at an expected higher price in the off- season. Midstream. First, an important boom in cold storage capacity - and thus in potato production - has happened in the two studied districts. The number of cold storages in the last decade doubled or tripled and rapid up-scaling of cold storages led to an even faster total capacity expansion, i.e. a triple and five-fold increase over the same period. Second, the boom is associated with increasing commercialization of potatoes from the two districts as the share of storage for seed potatoes is relatively on the decline. Third, several triggers explain the boom in this area. The rapid emergence of cold storage is linked with the better provision of public goods (such as roads, electricity, and governance), the deregulation of the cold storage sector, the investment subsidies given by national and state government, and the availability and spread of new technologies. Third, the rapid emergence and the up-scaling of cold storages are explained by important profit opportunities and high rates of returns to investments. However, cold storages charge prices that are significantly higher than those practiced in the neighboring state UP (1.5 Rs/kg versus 0.9 Rs/kg) and charges are similar to those practiced in Bangladesh where no subsidies to cold storage investments exist and where input costs (e.g. electricity and diesel) are significantly higher. While the government subsidies might have helped the farmers to have more access to cold storages, the availability of subsidies has thus not brought down the effective price paid for storage by farmers, or traders. Fourth, cold storages are currently little involved in input and credit markets with farmers and despite linkages with the banking system, little credit flows down to the farmers directly. It seems that most of the advances given by the cold storages using potatoes as collateral are thus with traders. Downstream. First, Bihar is still relying on potato imports from other states, especially UP and West Bengal but also from the Punjab, to supply potatoes to their retail markets in the off-season. Second, consumers in Bihar prefer red over white potatoes and are willing to pay a price premium for that quality. Third, potato prices in 2009 were characterized by significant variability with retail prices in the off-season twice as high as on-season. While prices in the off- season are always higher, the price hike this season was exceptional. Fourth, as the APMC has been repealed in Bihar, potato sales have moved away from auctions to direct on-on-one deals with traders. The value chain as a whole. First, wastage levels are estimated to be - and potentially have become - lower than most conventional estimates done before. The wastage level in the value chain is evaluated at 8% in the harvest period and 9.3% in the off-season. While public policies have encouraged the setting up of cold storage to bring down wastage, this might however be only one factor in influencing overall wastage levels. Farmers are often making conscious choices on the wastage they will incur and varieties that show higher wastage levels might be preferred by some farmers (because of a preference of shorter-duration cultivation periods or of varieties with less dry matter and higher yields). Second, the cost of the cold storage in the final price contributes less than 10% of the final retail price paid off-season by consumers in Patna. The most important contributor to the final retail price in the off-season is a reward to storage, which account for 40% of the final retail price. Third, the farmers’ share in the final retail price is as high as two-thirds in the harvest period, much higher than conventional estimates. This however drops to one-third in the off-season, except for these farmers that are able to postpone sales through storage. Way forward. First, the study has shown the importance of appropriate policies as to stimulate the take-off of agricultural businesses in Bihar. These policies should focus foremost on the provision of public goods such as reliable electricity, road infrastructure, and good governance. Given the still existing large deficiencies, Bihar should make further investments in this area as to allow private business to further flourish and to allow farmers in these disadvantaged districts to become better integrated in the market economy. Second, policy makers should further stimulate increased investments in the cold storage sector, but not necessarily through subsidies. More competition in the cold storage sector is desirable as to drive down the cost of storage. The further spread of cold storages as intermediaries in the potato value chains might also open some important opportunities towards upgrading the potato value chains as cold storages can serve as focal points for the distribution of better seed varieties, extension advice, marketing advice, etc. This could especially benefit smaller farmers who, because of liquidity constraints, are less willing to sell after storage and benefit from the higher prices off-season. Third, Bihar might further be a good area for the cultivation of processing varieties given its unique agro-ecological potential for those. As it is one of the areas in India where the growing period is later and where the minimum temperature during the production period is relatively high, leading to the required higher production of dry matter, the region is better suited for processing varieties than most other states in India. Given such comparative advantage, it seems that the state could benefit from the increased presence of the private sector interested in potato processing. However, some of the processing companies that are currently active in India are bringing in potato varieties (e.g. Lady Roseta, Atlantic) which might be prone to diseases that might be more difficult to control in the Indian setting. Close collaboration with local research stations as to introduce the most appropriate varieties seems thus called for. Fourth, our data illustrate the devastating effects that the late blight disease has in Bihar. The development and spread of better suited varieties by public or private research institutions seem thus of utmost importance