Confidence Cycles

We provide a model that rationalizes variations in confidence of rational agents, both in the time-series and the cross-section. Combining horizon-dependent risk aversion (“anxiety”) and selective memory, we show that over- and underconfidence can arise in the Bayesian equilibrium of an intra-personal game. In the time-series, overconfidence is more prevalent when actual risk levels are high, while underconfidence occurs when risks are low. In the cross-section, more anxious agents are more prone to biased confidence and their beliefs fluctuate more, leading them to buy in booms and sell in crashes. Lastly, fluctuations in confidence can amplify boom-bust cycles

Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion and the Timing and Pricing of Uncertainty

We address two fundamental critiques of established asset pricing models: that they (1) require a controversial degree of preference for early resolution of uncertainty; and (2) do not match the term structures of risk premia observed in the data. Inspired by experimental evidence, we construct preferences in which risk aversion decreases with the temporal horizon. The resulting model implies term structures of risk premia consistent with the evidence, including timevariations and reversals in the slope, without imposing a particular preference for early or late resolutions of uncertainty or compromising on the ability to match standard moments in the returns distributions

Early virological response may predict treatment response in sofosbuvir-based combination therapy of chronic hepatitis c in a multi-center “real-life” cohort

Background: The combination of sofosbuvir (SOF), ribavirin (RBV) and peg-interferon-alfa-2a (peg-IFN-alfa-2a) as well as the combination of SOF and RBV for the treatment of patients infected with hepatitis c virus (HCV) has improved rates of sustained virological response (SVR) considerably in recent trials. However, there is only limited data concerning the efficacy and safety in a “real-life” cohort. Methods: We analyzed a cohort of 119 patients with chronic HCV infection treated at four investigational sites in Germany. All patients received either a combination treatment of SOF, RBV and peg-IFN-alfa-2a or SOF and RBV. Results: The rates of SVR at 12 weeks after end of treatment (SVR 12) were as follows: Among 76 patients with genotype 1 infection the SVR 12 rate was 74 % (n = 56), among 14 patients with genotype 2 infection the SVR 12 rate was 79 % (n = 11), among 24 patients with genotype 3 infection the SVR 12 rate was 92 % (n = 22) and among 5 patients with genotype 4 infection the SVR 12 rate was 80 % (n = 4). Of all 26 patients with a relapse in our cohort, 69 % (n = 18) of these patients presented with liver cirrhosis and 58 % (n = 15) were treatment experienced. Notably, the level of HCV-RNA after 4 weeks of treatment was a significant predictor of treatment response in genotype 1 patients. Patients with HCV-RNA levels ≥ 12 IU ml-1 after 4 weeks of treatment achieved SVR 12 only in 30 % (n = 17/56, p < 0.0001) of cases and treatment response was even lower with SVR 12 of 25 % (n = 5/20, p = 0.0016) in the subgroup of patients with cirrhosis. Conclusion: We observed a high rate of SVR 12 with SOF-based treatment regimes, however probably due to the high number of patients with liver cirrhosis and prior treatment experience, treatment response rates were lower than in previously published trials. In genotype 1 patients the analysis of early virological response may predict treatment response in SOF-based combination therapies

Asset Pricing with Horizon-Dependent Risk Aversion

We study general equilibrium asset prices in a multi-period endowment economy when agents' risk aversion is allowed to depend on the maturity of the risk. We find horizon-dependent riskaversion preferences generate a decreasing term structure of risk premia if and only if volatility is stochastic. Our model can thus justify the recent empirical results on the term structure of risk premia if the pricing of volatility risk is downward sloping (in absolute value) in the data and if downward-sloping term structures of returns on a given market are driven solely by exposures to volatility risk. We test these predictions by estimating the price of volatility risk using index options data and by showing that the value premium is related to the exposure to volatility risk

Invasive Aspergillus fumigatus infection after Plasmodium falciparum malaria in an immuno-competent host: Case report and review of literature

Invasive fungal infection is rarely reported in association with malaria, even though malaria-associated inhibition of phagocyte function is a well-known condition. Invasive aspergillosis is frequently found in severely immuno-compromised patients but not in healthy individuals. Here, a case of pulmonary invasive aspergillosis in a previously healthy patient with severe P. falciparum malaria is presented, who was successfully treated with voriconazol and caspofungin. This is the first survival of malaria-associated invasive aspergillosis

Progesterone from the Cumulus Cells Is the Sperm Chemoattractant Secreted by the Rabbit Oocyte Cumulus Complex

Sperm chemotaxis in mammals have been identified towards several female sources as follicular fluid (FF), oviduct fluid, and conditioned medium from the cumulus oophorus (CU) and the oocyte (O). Though several substances were confirmed as sperm chemoattractant, Progesterone (P) seems to be the best chemoattractant candidate, because: 1) spermatozoa express a cell surface P receptor, 2) capacitated spermatozoa are chemotactically attracted in vitro by gradients of low quantities of P; 3) the CU cells produce and secrete P after ovulation; 4) a gradient of P may be kept stable along the CU; and 5) the most probable site for sperm chemotaxis in vivo could be near and/or inside the CU. The aim of this study was to verify whether P is the sperm chemoattractant secreted by the rabbit oocyte-cumulus complex (OCC) in the rabbit, as a mammalian animal model. By means of videomicroscopy and computer image analysis we observed that only the CU are a stable source of sperm attractants. The CU produce and secrete P since the hormone was localized inside these cells by immunocytochemistry and in the conditioned medium by enzyme immunoassay. In addition, rabbit spermatozoa express a cell surface P receptor detected by western blot and localized over the acrosomal region by immunocytochemistry. To confirm that P is the sperm chemoattractant secreted by the CU, the sperm chemotactic response towards the OCC conditioned medium was inhibited by three different approaches: P from the OCC conditioned medium was removed with an anti-P antibody, the attractant gradient of the OCC conditioned medium was disrupted by a P counter gradient, and the sperm P receptor was blocked with a specific antibody. We concluded that only the CU but not the oocyte secretes P, and the latter chemoattract spermatozoa by means of a cell surface receptor. Our findings may be of interest in assisted reproduction procedures in humans, animals of economic importance and endangered species

Reduced levels of intracellular calcium releasing in spermatozoa from asthenozoospermic patients

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Asthenozoospermia is one of the most common findings present in infertile males characterized by reduced or absent sperm motility, but its aetiology remains unknown in most cases. In addition, calcium is one of the most important ions regulating sperm motility. In this study we have investigated the progesterone-evoked intracellular calcium signal in ejaculated spermatozoa from men with normospermia or asthenozoospermia.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Human ejaculates were obtained from healthy volunteers and asthenospermic men by masturbation after 4–5 days of abstinence. For determination of cytosolic free calcium concentration, spermatozoa were loaded with the fluorescent ratiometric calcium indicator Fura-2.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Treatment of spermatozoa from normospermic men with 20 micromolar progesterone plus 1 micromolar thapsigargin in a calcium free medium induced a typical transient increase in cytosolic free calcium concentration due to calcium release from internal stores. Similar results were obtained when spermatozoa were stimulated with progesterone alone. Subsequent addition of calcium to the external medium evoked a sustained elevation in cytosolic free calcium concentration indicative of capacitative calcium entry. However, when progesterone plus thapsigargin were administered to spermatozoa from patients with asthenozoospermia, calcium signal and subsequent calcium entry was much smaller compared to normospermic patients. As expected, pretreatment of normospermic spermatozoa with both the anti-progesterone receptor c262 antibody and with progesterone receptor antagonist RU-38486 decreased the calcium release induced by progesterone. Treatment of spermatozoa with cytochalasin D or jasplakinolide decreased the calcium entry evoked by depletion of internal calcium stores in normospermic patients, whereas these treatments proved to be ineffective at modifying the calcium entry in patients with asthenozoospermia.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results suggest that spermatozoa from asthenozoospermic patients present a reduced responsiveness to progesterone.</p