Vorschläge zur Steuerreform in Deutschland: Was bedeuten sie? Was kosten sie?

Tax reform in Germany is proposed by political parties as well as by specific research groups. The gross wage income distributions for different groups of taxpayers are used to find out the consequences of introducing alternative rules of taxation for the wage income tax revenues. The results are supplemented to gain an impression of the overall consequences of a tax reform for the public sector’s budget. It turns out that fundamental tax reform is possible without reducing overall tax revenues if all the tax expenditures are abolished.Tax reform, tax revenue simulation, wage income tax elasticity, tax expenditures

Steuerreform und Lohnsteueraufkomnmen in Deutschland � Simulation auf Basis der Lohnsteuerstatistik

The gross wage income distributions for different groups of taxpayers in 1998 are used to derive wage income distributions for 2001–2006. By applying alternative rules of taxation, revenues according to different tax rate structures are deduced. Introducing new tax rates in 2004 resp. in 2005 will reduce the average tax rates and – though somewhat less – the marginal tax rates on average. “Bracket creep” will remain a huge problem in Germany. Indexation of the tax rate structure is the solution of the problem.Steuerreform, Steuersimulation, Steuerprogression, Marginale Steuerbelastung, Indexierung

Ein Modell zur Simulation des Lohnsteueraufkommens in Deutschland

Die Bruttolohnschichtungen für die einzelnen Steuerklassen im Jahr 1995 werden anhand der Ergebnisse der volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen fortgeschrieben. Unter Anwendung des tatsächlichen und des geplanten Steuerrechts wird das Lohnsteueraufkommen prognostiziert und simuliert. Die Einführung der von der Bundesregierung präferierten Einkommensteuertarife würde die Durchschnittsbelastung der Löhne und Gehälter reduzieren, die Grenzsteuerbelastung der Lohnsteuerzahler im Durchschnitt würde aber nur kurzfristig verringert. The gross wage income distributions for different groups of taxpayers in 1995 are used to derive income distributions for 2000–2003. By applying alternative rules of taxation, revenues according to different tax rate structures are deduced. When introducing the tax rate structures proposed by the federal government, the average tax rate is reduced, but the marginal tax rates on average are lower only in the short run.Steuerprognose, Steuersimulation, Steuerprogression, Marginale Steuerbelastung