Stochastic Mortality, Subjective Survival Expectations, and Individual Saving Behavior

Theoretical studies suggest that unexpected changes in future mortality and survival probabilities (stochastic mortality) are important determinants of individuals’ decisions about consumption, saving, asset allocation, and retirement timing. Using data on subjective survival expectations elicited in the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) and corresponding life table data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), we find evidence of respondents’ awareness of stochastic mortality. We also find that respondents’ saving behavior is influenced by stochastic mortality perceptions.stochastic mortality, subjective survival expectations, forecast dispersion, savings behavior

New relations between G2G_2-geometries in dimensions 5 and 7

There are two well-known parabolic split $G_2$-geometries in dimension five, $(2,3,5)$-distributions and $G_2$-contact structures. Here we link these two geometries with yet another $G_2$-related contact structure, which lives on a seven-manifold. We present a natural geometric construction of a Lie contact structure on a seven-dimensional bundle over a five-manifold endowed with a $(2,3,5)$-distribution. For a class of distributions the induced Lie contact structure is constructed explicitly and we determine its symmetries. We further study the relation between the canonical normal Cartan connections associated with the two structures. In particular, we show that the Cartan holonomy of the induced Lie contact structure reduces to $G_2$. Moreover, the curved orbit decomposition associated with a $\mathrm{G}_2$-reduced Lie contact structure on a seven-manifold is discussed. It is shown that in a neighbourhood of each point on the open curved orbit the structure descends to a $(2,3,5)$-distribution on a local leaf space, provided an additional curvature condition is satisfied. The closed orbit carries an induced $G_2$-contact structure.Comment: We changed abstract a bit, and correctly defined the $G_2$ contact structur

Stochastic Mortality, Macroeconomic Risks, and Life Insurer Solvency

Motivated by a recent demographic study establishing a link between macroeconomic fluctuations and the mortality index kt in the Lee-Carter model, we assess the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations on the solvency of a life insurance company. Liabilities in our stochastic simulation framework are driven by a GDP-linked variant of the Lee-Carter mortality model. Furthermore, interest rates and stock prices are allowed to react to changes in GDP, which itself is modeled as a stochastic process. Our results show that insolvency probabilities are significantly higher when the reaction of mortality rates to changes in GDP is incorporated.Life insurance, asset-liability management, stochastic mortality, Lee-Carter model, business cycle

Plasma N-Terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide as Prognostic Marker in Fatal Cardial Decompensation with Sunitinib Malate Therapy

A 74-year-old man with metastatic renal cell carcinoma and a history of cardiac failure was treated with sunitinib malate. MUGA echocardiography could not detect a relevant change in the ejection fraction although the clinical situation of the patient worsened dramatically. The only parameter to hint at the deteriorated cardiac function was plasma N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (BNP). Finally, the patient died after only one cycle of sunitinib treatment. We propose to prospectively include BNP for the early detection of cardiovascular decompensation in high-risk patients. Future studies concerning the relevance of BNP in drug-related cardiotoxicity are urgently needed. Copyright (C) 2010 S. Karger AG, Base

Marginal effects in the probit model with a triple dummy variable interaction term

In non-linear regression models, such as the probit model, coefficients cannot be interpreted as marginal effects. The marginal effects are usually non-linear combinations of all regressors and regression coefficients of the model. This paper derives the marginal effects in a probit model with a triple dummy variable interaction term. A frequent application of this model is the regression-based difference-in-difference-in-differences estimator with a binary outcome variable. The formulae derived here are implemented in a Stata program called inteff3 which applies the delta method in order to compute also the standard errors of the marginal effects

A tool for thought! When comparative thinking reduces stereotyping effects

Stereotypes have pervasive, robust, and often unwanted effects on how people see and behave towards others. Undoing these effects has proven to be a daunting task. Two studies demonstrate that procedurally priming participants to engage in comparative thinking with a generalized focus on differences reduces behavioral and judgmental stereotyping effects. In Study 1, participants who were procedurally primed to focus on differences sat closer to a skinhead – a member of a negatively stereotyped group. In Study 2, participants primed on differences ascribed less gender stereotypic characteristics to a male and female target person. This suggests that comparative thinking with a focus on differences may be a simple cognitive tool to reduce the behavioral and judgmental effects of stereotyping

A Comparative Eye-Tracking Study

Objects from the Middle Paleolithic period colored with ochre and marked with incisions represent the beginning of non-utilitarian object manipulation in different species of the Homo genus. To investigate the visual effects caused by these markings, we compared humans who have different cultural backgrounds (Namibian hunter–gatherers and German city dwellers) to one species of non- human great apes (orangutans) with respect to their perceptions of markings on objects. We used eye-tracking to analyze their fixation patterns and the durations of their fixations on marked and unmarked stones and sticks. In an additional test, humans evaluated the objects regarding their aesthetic preferences. Our hypotheses were that colorful markings help an individual to structure the surrounding world by making certain features of the environment salient, and that aesthetic appreciation should be associated with this structuring. Our results showed that humans fixated on the marked objects longer and used them in the structural processing of the objects and their background, but did not consistently report finding them more beautiful. Orangutans, in contrast, did not distinguish between object and background in their visual processing and did not clearly fixate longer on the markings. Our results suggest that marking behavior is characteristic for humans and evolved as an attention-directing rather than aesthetic benefit