Surprise, Intelligence Failure, and Mass Casualty Terrorism

This study aims to evaluate whether surprise and intelligence failure leading to mass casualty terrorism are inevitable. It explores the extent to which four factors - failures of public policy leadership, analytical challenges, organizational obstacles, and the inherent problems of warning information - contribute to intelligence failure. This study applies existing theories of surprise and intelligence failure to case studies of five mass casualty terrorism incidents: World Trade Center 1993; Oklahoma City 1995; Khobar Towers 1996; East African Embassies 1998; and September 11, 2001. A structured, focused comparison of the cases is made using a set of thirteen probing questions based on the factors above. The study concludes that while all four factors were influential, failures of public policy leadership contributed directly to surprise. Psychological bias and poor threat assessments prohibited policy makers from anticipating or preventing attacks. Policy makers mistakenly continued to use a law enforcement approach to handling terrorism, and failed to provide adequate funding, guidance, and oversight of the intelligence community. The study has implications for intelligence reform, information sharing, Congressional oversight, and society's expectations about the degree to which the intelligence community can predict or prevent surprise attacks

Demographic Change, Human Capital and Endogenous Growth

This paper employs a large scale overlapping generations (OLG) model with endogenous education to evaluate the quantitative role of human capital adjustments for the economic consequences of demographic change. We find that endogenous human capital formation is an important adjustment mechanism which substantially mitigates the macroeconomic impact of demographic change. Welfare gains from demographic change for newborn households are approximately three times higher when households endogenously adjust their education. Low ability agents experience higher welfare gains. Endogenous growth through human capital formation is found to increase the long-run growth rate in the economy by 0.2-0.4 percentage points.

Online Appendix to "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare"

This appendix of our paper, "Demographic Change, Human Capital and Welfare", contains further material that could not be included in the paper due to space limitations. It is organized as follows. Section A contains the formal equilibrium definition. Section B provides more results on the fit of our model to observed life-cycle profiles of hours and wages, the implied labor-supply elasticities of our model, additional results on predicted aggregate variables during the demographic transition as well as the associated welfare effects and a sensitivity analysis. Our population model is explained in Section C. Details on our computational procedures can be found in Section D.Population aging; Human capital; Rate of return; Distribution of welfare

Quantitative detection of _Potato virus Y_ in potato plants and aphids - Discussion of diverse applications in potato research

Every year potato growers worldwide complain about severe yield losses caused by _Potato virus Y_ (PVY). Therefore, PVY along with _Potato leafroll virus_ belongs to the most important potato viruses. There are three main strains of PVY: PVY^O^, PVY^N^ and PVY^C^. However, also recombinant forms exist such as PVY^N^Wilga and PVY^NTN^, both of which increase in importance due to their potential to displace the non-recombinant strains at a high percentage. They appear also in mixed infections. In recent years PCR and qPCR assays were developed to differentiate PVY isolates. In order to identify PVY isolates by PCR often large amplicons have to be generated which requires the input of expensive enzymes. On the other hand, qPCR assays until now do not allow the differentiation between PVY^N^Wilga and PVY^NTN^. 

For the discrimination between PVY^O^/PVY^N^Wilga and PVY^N^/PVY^NTN^ a qPCR assay was developed, which allows the differentiation and highly efficient quantification of both strains and recombinants, respectively. For this purpose dual-labeled hydrolysis probes tagged with different fluorophores were designed. The assay is suitable for many different applications, for example safety research on genetically modified (GM) potato plants. The goal of this research is to determine whether genetic modification causes changes in resistance to viruses. Two different GM cultivars were examined for signs of altered resistance to an infection with PVY in comparison to their near-isogenic lines and three reference cultivars. Reference cultivars are included to determine the baselines for resistance and thus to be able to decide if the changes could represent a biological risk. The plants to be investigated were mechanically inoculated with PVY^N^Wilga or PVY^NTN^ and analyzed by means of the developed assay after two weeks. The results of the experiment indicate that the differences in virus titer between the reference cultivars are higher than between the GM potatoes and their isogenic lines. Therefore, in our experiments the GM potato plants showed no alteration in PVY resistance to neither one of the tested strains.

Since _Myzus persicae_ is one of the most important vectors transmitting PVY, the developed assay will also be applied to the quantification of PVY particles in aphids. The displacement of PVY^O^ and PVY^N^ by PVY^N^Wilga and PVY^NTN^ may be due to a difference in efficiency of transmission by _M. persicae_. Therefore, the objective is to test whether more virus particles of the recombinant forms in comparison to the non-recombinant strains PVY^O^ and PVY^N^ bind in the stylets of _M. persicae_. 

A third possible application of the developed assay may be of interest in potato breeding. The exact quantification of PVY particles in plants allows the classification of resistance in potato plants. It is possible to estimate whether a resistance is extreme or not. Extreme resistance is characterized by the absence or presence of very low amounts of virus particles in plants several days after inoculation. When testing the plants for PVY infection by ELISA, often unspecific reactions occur which makes it difficult to differentiate between plants weakly infected and plants very weakly infected. An exact quantification of the PVY titer gives more certainty for the determination of the resistance type.

In conclusion, the developed assay is an efficient and low-cost method that allows the differentiation and quantification of PVY^O^/PVY^N^Wilga on the one hand and PVY^N^/PVY^NTN^ on the other hand with high throughput. The method can be utilized for a wide range of applications in potato research.
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A Theory of Formal Organization and Its Acceptance by the Business Practitioner

Formal organization theory has evolved from the traditional school of thought through the scientific management and behavioral schools and into what is currently called open system theory. In spite of voluminous writing by the academician, no school of thought or no theory has been universally accepted. This may be due to the failure to consult the businessman who interprets and applies theoretical concepts to the practical situation. The purpose of this study was to help clear the theory jungle by determining the extent to which a sample of business practitioners agreed with basic factors of a comprehensive theory of formal organization developed by Dr. Robert D. Hay.The Hay theory states that organizations are established to satisfy human needs and wants. Various goods and services are created by organizations to satisfy the many groups which contribute to the organization. The contributors are customers, management, nonmanagerial employees, creditors, suppliers, owners, government, and community. The goods and services have value (because of the production cost and utility) to each of the contributors. The creation of these values becomes the objectives of the organization. The managerial philosophy of determining these objectives is influenced by various environmental forces—legal-political, social-cultural, religious-ethical, and economic. If the perception of value by contributors differs and thereby causes the personal objectives of the 2 contributors to conflict, it is the responsibility of management to determine priorities in meeting these objectives. Once organizational objectives are known, it is possible to determine the organizational structure with its managerial and operative functions necessary to achieve the objectives. To carry out the functions the delegation of authority, of responsibility, and of accountability is required. Authority may be obtained through the position held or through personal leadership. Proper and effective use of authority, responsibility, and accountability permits mental and physical activities to be performed which results in the creation of the goods and services to satisfy the needs and wants of contributors to the organization. Data was gathered by personal interviews with a top level executive in twenty organizations. The sample was structured to include managers from five business fields, owners and professional managers, and managers from large and medium size organizations. The data required for this study was highly qualitative. Because some questions were theoretical and did not deal with concepts normally considered by businessmen, the interviewer occasionally had to interpret the expressed as well as the implied opinions. Sample size and subjectiveness of the data were not conducive to statistical analysis. The conclusions of this study may not be true of the universe. Except occasionally, there was very little difference among the responses of managers of various business fields, owners and professional managers, and managers of large and medium size organizations. 3 On some theoretical points the level of agreement with the theory tended to be moderate. This may be partly attributed to the fact that these were points not normally considered by the interviewees. These purely theoretical points especially related to the determination of value, the role of value in determining organizational objectives, the tie-in of types of utility to line, service, and staff functions, and the possibility of superiors receiving authority from subordinates. The highest acceptance levels concerned theory facets with which the managers frequently worked, e.g., identification of typical personal objectives of contributors, internal objective hierarchy, factors influencing managerial philosophy, and most facets of authority, responsibility, and accountability. The over-all conclusion was that the Hay theory is generally accepted and does provide a logical, organized framework around which both theoretical and practical developments may be formulated