A Comparison of the Qualitative Analytic Hierarchy Process and the Quantitative Frequency Ratio Techniques in Predicting Forest Fire-Prone Areas in Bhutan Using GIS

Forest fire is an environmental disaster that poses immense threat to public safety, infrastructure, and biodiversity. Therefore, it is essential to have a rapid and robust method to produce reliable forest fire maps, especially in a data-poor country or region. In this study, the knowledge-based qualitative Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the statistical-based quantitative Frequency Ratio (FR) techniques were utilized to model forest fire-prone areas in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan. Seven forest fire conditioning factors were used: land-use land cover, distance from human settlement, distance from road, distance from international border, aspect, elevation, and slope. The fire-prone maps generated by both models were validated using the Area Under Curve assessment method. The FR-based model yielded a fire-prone map with higher accuracy (87%
 success rate; 82% prediction rate) than the AHP-based model (71% success rate; 63% prediction rate).
 However, both the models showed almost similar extent of 'very high' prone areas in Bhutan, which corresponded to coniferous-dominated areas, lower elevations, steeper slopes, and areas close to human settlements, roads, and the southern international border. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire points were overlaid on the model generated maps to assess their reliability in predicting forest fires. They were found to be not reliable in Bhutan, as most of them overlapped with fire-prone classes, such as 'moderate', 'low', and 'very low'. The fire-prone map derived from the FR model will assist Bhutan's Department of Forests and Park Services to update its current National Forest Fire Management Strategy

Establishing baseline estimates of blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) abundance and density to sustain populations of the vulnerable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) in Western Bhutan

Context: Advances have been made in the development of reliable methods for estimating the abundance and density of large threatened mammalian predators, but there is little progress on developing population estimates for their principal prey. No standardised protocol for estimating prey populations exists, therefore different researchers use different methods. As such, there is little information on key prey species of the vulnerable snow leopard and this has hindered the preparation of effective snow leopard conservation plans. Aims: This study aimed to establish an estimated seasonal baseline population abundance and density of blue sheep in the Lingzhi Park Range (LPR) of Bhutan’s Jigme Dorji National Park over winter (December to February) and summer (May to July). It also aimed to assess the number of snow leopard individuals that the current blue sheep population can sustain in the study area. Methods: A refined double-observer survey method was used and involved walking transect lengths of 414 km in winter and 450 km in summer to estimate blue sheep abundance with the aid of 8 × 30 binoculars and 15 × 45 spotting scopes. Key results: In total, 1762 (s.e. ± 199) blue sheep individuals were recorded in winter at a density of 8.51 individuals per km2 and 2097 (s.e. ± 172) individuals in summer at a density of 9.32 individuals per km2. Mean group size of blue sheep was 38.12 individuals (s.e. ± 6) in winter and 52.36 individuals (s.e. ± 4) in summer. LPR was estimated to sustain 11-17 snow leopards in winter and 15-21 in summer. Key conclusions: LPR can be a hotspot for snow leopard conservation in western Bhutan and regionally in the eastern Himalayas, because the comparatively higher estimated blue sheep abundance and density supports possibly the highest density of snow leopards in Bhutan. The modified double-observer method used to assess blue sheep population estimates is inexpensive, robust and practical for the mountainous terrain of the Himalayas. Implications: On the basis of this study, it is recommended that a refined double-observer method is adopted as a standard technique for estimating blue sheep populations in the snow leopard range countries of the Himalayas. Snow leopard conservation plans should, additionally, include efforts to minimise threats to blue sheep populations. This refined method is also highly applicable for future surveys of gregarious mammalian taxa, such as ungulates and primates, in difficult mountainous terrain elsewhere in the world

Modeling Distribution and Habitat Suitability for the Snow Leopard in Bhutan

The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is one of the world's most elusive felids. In Bhutan, which is one of the 12 countries where the species still persists, reliable information on its distribution and habitat suitability is lacking, thus impeding effective conservation planning for the species. To fill this knowledge gap, we created a country-wide species distribution model using "presence-only" data from 420 snow leopard occurrences (345 from a sign survey and 77 from a camera-trapping survey) and 12 environmental covariates consisting of biophysical and anthropogenic factors. We analyzed the data in an ensemble model framework which combines the outputs from several species distribution models. To assess the adequacy of Bhutan's network of protected areas and their potential contribution toward the conservation of the species, we overlaid the output of the ensemble model on the spatial layers of protected areas and biological corridors. The ensemble model identified 7,206 km2 of Bhutan as suitable for the snow leopard: 3,647 km2 as highly suitable, 2,681 km2 as moderately suitable, and 878 km2 as marginally suitable. Forty percent of the total suitable habitat consisted of protected areas and a further 8% of biological corridors. These suitable habitats were characterized by a mean livestock density of 1.3 individuals per hectare, and a mean slope of 25◦; they closely match the distribution of the snow leopard's main wild prey, the bharal (Pseudois nayaur). Our study shows that Bhutan's northern protected areas are a centre for snow leopard conservation both at the national and regional scale

Estimating wild tiger (Panthera tigris Linnaeus) abundance and density using a spatially-explicit capture-recapture model in Jigme Dorji National Park, Bhutan

Wild tiger populations have rapidly declined in most of the range countries, and there is an urgent need to reliably estimate their numbers for effective management. The use of remotely-triggered camera traps has proven to be an efficient method to sample populations of highly elusive animals such as tigers. In addition, the spatially-explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models are the latest developments in estimation methods to reliably estimate animal density and abundance. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to reliably estimate the density and abundance of tigers and to study their distribution in Bhutan's Jigme Dorji National Park (JDNP) using the latest sampling and estimation methods. During 7,462 trap-days with 41 camera traps functionally stationed for 6 months in approximately 656 km2 of highly probable areas of tiger occurrence in JDNP, 80 photographs of tigers (48 right flanks and 32 left flanks) were obtained. Analysis of all left flank pictures yielded seven unique tiger individuals. The SECR model, using an R programme package "SPACECAP" which uses Bayesian framework for inference, estimated the tiger abundance of 19 (SE = ± 6, 95% CI of 9 to 29 individuals) and the density of 3.7 (SE = ± 1.1, 95% CI of 1.8 to 5.8 individuals) per 100 km2 . Photographic recaptures and the SECR model yielded the highest tiger density occurring in the south-central region of the park. Using the model estimates, we determined that JDNP can support a maximum of 59 tigers. We posit JDNP as an important tiger conservation area in the upper Himalayan region of Bhutan

Investigating Student Teachers’ Contemporary Mathematics Practices of Engagement, such as "Try This," as They Begin Their Mathematical Lessons.

This study explores the extent to which pre-service teachers are able to implement contemporary practices in teaching mathematics during their practicum. The main focus is on the importance of prior engagement of students in learning mathematical concepts. The total population of 150 student teachers from both the Colleges of Education, Paro College of Education (PCE) and Samtse College of Education (SCE), was targeted for this study. However, only 60 participants could actually return the questionnaires. A mixed-method comprising of both quantitative and qualitative methodologies was used. Research tools such as survey questionnaires (quantitative) along with a few open-ended questions, followed by lesson plans and interviews (qualitative) were used to collect the data. The findings from this study tend to reveal that although the student teachers are in favour of the contemporary ideas/approach of teaching and learning of mathematics, they do not seem to have practiced it while they were in a teaching practicum. The findings cast doubt on whether preservice teachers are able to drive changes for improvement in the teaching and learning of mathematics in mathematics classrooms. The benefit of this study was expected to be very relevant not only for the authorities to consider the effectiveness of the contemporary practices of teaching and learning of mathematics education in those two colleges of education, but also in Bhutanese schools using the current mathematics curriculum

Diversity and seasonal abundance of small mammals in Bumdeling Ramsar Site, Trashiyangtse, Eastern Bhutan

Small mammals have multiple ecological roles and are important components of the terrestrial ecosystems. They are important ecological indicators of changes in the natural surroundings. However, little is known about the small mammals in Bhutan. We conducted this study in the Bumdeling Ramsar Site in eastern region of Bhutan, aimed at enhancing our understanding of the species composition, abundance, and seasonal diversity of small mammals. We laid linear transects, each measuring 500 m in six different habitat types: agriculture land (AG), fallow land (FL), Alnus sp. forest (AF), open grassland (OG), riparian forest (RR), and oak forest (OF). We placed 17 collapsible Sherman live traps (23x9x8cm) in each transect to capture both ground dwelling and arboreal small mammals. We conducted the trapping exercise twice in the year 2016 (28 March to 28 April during the wet season and 1 to 30 October during the dry season), amounting to a total of 1,224 trap nights. We trapped a total of 135 individuals of small mammals, yielding seven species of rodents (90 individuals" 66.7%) and four of insectivores (45 individuals" 33.3%). We found significant difference in the number of individuals trapped among the six different habitats (X2=66.43, df= 5,

Conserving an Endangered Canid: Assessing Distribution, Habitat Protection, and Connectivity for the Dhole (Cuon alpinus) in Bhutan

Most canids face population declines and range contractions worldwide. Although the dhole (Cuon alpinus) is widely distributed across 10 countries in South and Southeast Asia, limited studies exist on this species. Despite its globally "Endangered" status and ecological role as an apex predator, assessments on its distribution are limited to a few landscapes and countries. This explains the lack of a dhole-specific species conservation plan in most range countries, including Bhutan where no current population estimate exists. The species has also recovered from a country-wide poisoning campaign in the 1970s and 80s. In this study, we determine the dhole's distribution pattern and assess the protection and connectivity of dhole habitat in Bhutan. We anticipated dholes to be extant within their habitat well-represented in protected areas (PAs) and biological corridors (BCs). We used 721 georeferenced dhole occurrence records and eight environmental variables in MaxEnt software to model potential dhole distribution and habitat suitability. The model output was overlaid on the spatial layers of PAs and BCs to assess habitat protection and connectivity. As anticipated, we found the dhole widely distributed in all districts, PAs, and BCs in Bhutan. Dholes were recorded at the highest elevation range limit of 4,980 m above sea level, which overlapped with the "Vulnerable" snow leopard (Panthera uncia). Our model identified 72% (27,634 km2) of the country as suitable areas for dholes, of which, 31% (11,899 km2) was highly suitable and 41% (15,735 km2) was moderately suitable. Contrary to our expectation, PAs and BCs encompassed only 29% (8,046 km2.) and 12% (3,185 km2) of suitable areas for dholes, respectively. A vast majority of the areas we deemed suitable for dholes currently remain unprotected, thus making dholes more vulnerable to human persecution and local extermination. We recommend adjusting PA boundaries to fully encompass suitable dhole habitat, and also advocate improved livestock husbandry to reduce dhole related livestock predation and minimize conflict, thereby ensuring its long-term survival in Bhutan

Employing citizen science to understand amphibian and reptile diversity and distribution in the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan

In the absence of systematic research institutions and local or long-term resident systematists added by Buddhist culture that discourages lethal sampling of animals, scientific collections are particularly sparse in Bhutan. Consequently, less charismatic taxa such as the reptile and amphibian fauna of Bhutan, including the Eastern-Himalayas, are poorly known. Citizen science was employed to better understand the occupancy and distribution of reptile and amphibian fauna in Bhutan. Using a dedicated amphibian and reptile Facebook group, we gathered 929 species records from 235 individuals between May 2014 and December 2019. Of the participants 70% were foresters, 10% were members of the general public, 6% were school teachers, 6% were college students, 5% were non-forester civil servants, and 3% were tour guides. Citizen scientists submitted records for 99 species of snakes, 70 species of amphibians, 87 species of lizards and 5 species of testudines. Of these, 70% of the records extended the published range of the species in Bhutan, and more than 48 species were new records for Bhutan. Our study demonstrates the potential of citizen science in developing countries with poorly documented fauna