When Have All the Graduates Gone? Internal Migration of Graduates in Germany 1984-2004

The present paper analyzes the out-migration of graduates to other German states or abroad based on the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). Applying duration analysis, it can be shown that, ten years after graduation, slightly more than seventy percent of the graduates still live in the state where they completed their studies. The parametric estimation model identifies personal characteristics that are highly correlated with out-migration and permanent residence respectively. The analysis confirms previous results that nonresident students exhibit a significantly higher emigration propensity than resident fellows

Institutionalized Bailouts and Fiscal Policy: Consequences of Soft Budget Constraints

States have soft budget constraints when they can expect a bailout by the federal government in the event of a financial crisis. This gives rise to incentives for unsound state fiscal policy. We test whether states with softer budget constraints have higher debt and deficits, receive more bailouts funds, spend funds less efficiently, and are more likely to allocate funds to programs benefiting special interests. Exogenous variation in soft budget constraints across states and over time allows the identification of budget constraint softness on state fiscal policy. We take advantage of the fact that in Germany, states' political influence is exogenous because voting weights differ in the upper chamber of the German parliament. The stronger the political influence of states, the softer their budget constraints. We show that states with softer budget constraint have higher deficits and debts, and receive more bailouts funds. Further, overrepresented states are less efficient in spending public funds and are more prone to respond to rent seeking by interest groups