Impact de la variabilité des données météorologiques sur une maison basse consommation. Application des analyses de sensibilité pour les entrées temporelles.

Ce travail de thèse s'inscrit dans le cadre du projet ANR FIABILITE qui porte sur la fiabilité des logiciels de simulation thermique dynamique et plus particulièrement sur les sources potentielles de biais et d'incertitude dans le domaine de la modélisation thermique et énergétique des bâtiments basse consommation. Les sollicitations telles que les occupants, la météo ou encore les scénarios de consommation des usages font partie des entrées les plus incertaines et potentiellement les plus influentes sur les performances d'un bâtiment basse consommation. Il est nécessaire pour pouvoir garantir des performances de déterminer les dispersions de sortie associées à la variabilité des entrées temporelles et d'en déterminer les variables responsables pour mieux réduire leur variabilité ou encore concevoir le bâtiment de manière robuste. Pour répondre à cette problématique, on se base sur les indices de sensibilité de Sobol adaptés aux modèles complexes à grandes dimensions tels que les modèles de bâtiment pour la simulation thermique dynamique. La gestion des entrées fonctionnelles étant un verrou scientifique pour les méthodes d'analyse de sensibilité standard, une méthodologie originale a été développée dans le cadre de cette thèse afin de générer des échantillons compatibles avec l'estimation de la sensibilité. Bien que la méthode soit générique aux entrées fonctionnelles, elle a été validée dans ce travail de thèse pour le cas des données météorologiques et tout particulièrement à partir des fichiers météo moyens (TMY) utilisés en simulation thermique dynamique. Les deux aspects principaux de ce travail de développement résident dans la caractérisation de la variabilité des données météorologiques et dans la génération des échantillons permettant l'estimation de la sensibilité de chaque variable météorologique sur la dispersion des performances d'un bâtiment. A travers différents cas d'application dérivés du modèle thermique d'une maison basse consommation, la dispersion et les paramètres influents relatifs à la variabilité météorologique sont estimés. Les résultats révèlent un intervalle d'incertitude sur les besoins énergétiques de l'ordre de 20% à 95% de niveau de confiance, dominé par la température extérieure et le rayonnement direct.This thesis is part of the ANR project FIABILITE dealing with the reliability of dynamic thermal simulation softwares and particularly with the potential sources of bias and uncertainties in the field of thermal and energy modeling of low consumption buildings. The solicitations such as the occupancy schedules, the weather data or the usage scenarios are among the most uncertain and potentially most influential inputs on the performance of a low energy building. To ensure the efficiency of such buildings, we need to determine the outputs dispersion associated with the uncertainty of the temporal inputs as well as to emphasize the variables responsible for the dispersion of the output in order to design the building in a robust manner. To address this problem, we have used the sensitivity indices of Sobol adapted to complex models with high dimensions, such as building models for dynamic thermal simulations. The management of the functional inputs being a lock for the scientific methods of standard sensitivity analysis, an innovative methodology was developed in the framework of this thesis in order to generate consistent samples with the estimate of the sensitivity. Although the method can incorporate generic functional inputs, it has been validated in this thesis using meteorological data and especially the typical meteorological year (TMY files) used in dynamic thermal simulations. The two main aspects of this development work lie in the characterization of the variability of meteorological data and the generation of samples to estimate the sensitivity of each weather variable dispersion on the thermal and energy performances of a building. Through various case studies derived from the thermal model of a low-energy house, the dispersion and influential parameters for meteorological variability are estimated. Results show a large range of uncertainties in the energy requirements from about 20 % at a confidence level of 95%.SAVOIE-SCD - Bib.électronique (730659901) / SudocGRENOBLE1/INP-Bib.électronique (384210012) / SudocGRENOBLE2/3-Bib.électronique (384219901) / SudocSudocFranceF

Report of an ad-hoc international task force to develop an expert-based opinion on early and short-term rehabilitative interventions (after the acute hospital setting) in covid-19 survivors

No abstract available.publishe

Bacterial and fungal infections in acute-on-chronic liver failure: prevalence, characteristics and impact on prognosis

Bacterial infection is a frequent trigger of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), syndrome that could also increase the risk of infection. This investigation evaluated prevalence and characteristics of bacterial and fungal infections causing and complicating ACLF, predictors of follow-up bacterial infections and impact of bacterial infections on survival. Patients 407 patients with ACLF and 235 patients with acute decompensation (AD). Results 152 patients (37%) presented bacterial infections at ACLF diagnosis; 46%(n=117) of the remaining 255 patients with ACLF developed bacterial infections during follow-up (4 weeks). The corresponding figures in patients with AD were 25% and 18% (p<0.001). Severe infections (spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, pneumonia, severe sepsis/shock, nosocomial infections and infections caused by multiresistant organisms) were more prevalent in patients with ACLF. Patients with ACLF and bacterial infections (either at diagnosis or during follow-up) showed higher grade of systemic inflammation at diagnosis of the syndrome, worse clinical course (ACLF 2-3 at final assessment: 47% vs 26%; p<0.001) and lower 90-day probability of survival (49% vs 72.5%;p<0.001) than patients with ACLF without infection. Bacterial infections were independently associated with mortality in patients with ACLF-1 and ACLF-2. Fungal infections developed in 9 patients with ACLF (2%) and in none with AD, occurred mainly after ACLF diagnosis (78%) and had high 90-day mortality (71%). Conclusion Bacterial infections are extremely frequent in ACLF. They are severe and associated with intense systemic inflammation, poor clinical course and high mortality. Patients with ACLF are highly predisposed to develop bacterial infections within a short follow-up period and could benefit from prophylactic strategies

Multidifferential study of identified charged hadron distributions in ZZ-tagged jets in proton-proton collisions at s=\sqrt{s}=13 TeV

Jet fragmentation functions are measured for the first time in proton-proton collisions for charged pions, kaons, and protons within jets recoiling against a $Z$ boson. The charged-hadron distributions are studied longitudinally and transversely to the jet direction for jets with transverse momentum 20 $< p_{\textrm{T}} < 100$ GeV and in the pseudorapidity range $2.5 < \eta < 4$. The data sample was collected with the LHCb experiment at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 1.64 fb$^{-1}$. Triple differential distributions as a function of the hadron longitudinal momentum fraction, hadron transverse momentum, and jet transverse momentum are also measured for the first time. This helps constrain transverse-momentum-dependent fragmentation functions. Differences in the shapes and magnitudes of the measured distributions for the different hadron species provide insights into the hadronization process for jets predominantly initiated by light quarks.Comment: All figures and tables, along with machine-readable versions and any supplementary material and additional information, are available at https://cern.ch/lhcbproject/Publications/p/LHCb-PAPER-2022-013.html (LHCb public pages

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good