The Decline of PUVA Therapy in Vietnam: Effective Treatment of Narrow Band UVB in Vietnamese Vitiligo Patients

AIM: To examine the efficacy and safety of Narrowband ultraviolet B (NB-UVB) in Vietnamese vitiligo patients. METHODS: We recruited thirty-one patients (14 males, 17 females), aged from 7 to 67 years, with both segmental vitiligo (SV) and non-segmental vitiligo (NSV), treated three times weekly with NB-UVB. The starting dose for adults from 15 years old and children less than 15 years old was 200 mJ/cm2 and 150 mJ/cm2, respectively, with 50 mJ/cm2 and 20 mJ/cm2 dose increments at each subsequent visit, respectively, until mild erythema lasting less than 24 hrs reported by patient, given for a period of 6 months. Response to therapy was assessed based on VASI score changes. RESULTS: Based upon our results, 38.7% (12/31) of patients achieved a very good response of more than 50% VASI changes, 41.9% (13/31) obtained a good response (VASI changed from 25 to 50%). Total good and very good response to therapy significantly increased with prolonged treatment, increasing from 19.4% to 64.5% and 80.6% after 2, 4 and 6 months, respectively. Localised NSV patients obtained good and very good response significantly more frequently than generalised NSV (55.6% versus 18.2%). Adverse effects were minimal, of which one case developed herpes simplex, and 4 cases reported mild photo burn reaction which completely disappeared after adjusting the dose. CONCLUSION: NB-UVB therapy is an effective and safe tool in the management of Vietnamese vitiligo patients

Genomic serotyping, clinical manifestations, and antimicrobial resistance of non-typhoidal Salmonella gastroenteritis in hospitalized children in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) are among the most common etiological agents of diarrheal diseases worldwide and have become the most commonly detected bacterial pathogen in children hospitalized with diarrhea in Vietnam. Aiming to better understand the epidemiology, serovar distribution, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and clinical manifestation of NTS gastroenteritis in Vietnam, we conducted a clinical genomics investigation of NTS isolated from diarrheal children admitted to one of three tertiary hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City. Between May 2014 and April 2016, 3,166 children hospitalized with dysentery were recruited into the study; 478 (∼15%) children were found to be infected with NTS by stool culture. Molecular serotyping of the 450 generated genomes identified a diverse collection of serogroups (B, C1, C2 to C3, D1, E1, G, I, K, N, O, and Q); however, Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium was the most predominant serovar, accounting for 41.8% (188/450) of NTS isolates. We observed a high prevalence of AMR to first-line treatments recommended by WHO, and more than half (53.8%; 242/450) of NTS isolates were multidrug resistant (MDR; resistant to ≥3 antimicrobial classes). AMR gene detection positively correlated with phenotypic AMR testing, and resistance to empirical antimicrobials was associated with a significantly longer hospitalization (0.91 days; P = 0.04). Our work shows that genome sequencing is a powerful epidemiological tool to characterize the serovar diversity and AMR profiles in NTS. We propose a revaluation of empirical antimicrobials for dysenteric diarrhea and endorse the use of whole-genome sequencing for sustained surveillance of NTS internationally

Excess body weight and age associated with the carriage of fluoroquinolone and third-generation cephalosporin resistance genes in commensal Escherichia coli from a cohort of urban Vietnamese children.

PURPOSE: Antimicrobial-resistant bacterial infections in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are a well-established global health issue. We aimed to assess the prevalence of and epidemiological factors associated with the carriage of ciprofloxacin- and ceftriaxone-resistant Escherichia coli and associated resistance genes in a cohort of 498 healthy children residing in urban Vietnam. METHODOLOGY: We cultured rectal swabs onto MacConkey agar supplemented with resistant concentrations of ciprofloxacin and ceftriaxone. Additionally, we screened meta-E. coli populations by conventional PCR to detect plasmid-mediated quinolone resistance (PMQR)- and extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-encoding genes. We measured the associations between phenotypic/genotypic resistance and demographic characteristics using logistic regression.Results/Key findings. Ciprofloxacin- and ceftriaxone-resistant E. coli were cultured from the faecal samples of 67.7 % (337/498) and 80.3 % (400/498) of children, respectively. The prevalence of any associated resistance marker in the individual samples was 86.7 % (432/498) for PMQR genes and 90.6 % (451/498) for β-lactamase genes. Overweight children were significantly more likely to carry qnr genes than children with lower weight-for-height z-scores [odds ratios (OR): 1.24; 95 % confidence interval (CI): 10.5-1.48 for each unit increase in weight for height; P=0.01]. Additionally, younger children were significantly more likely to carry ESBL CTX-M genes than older children (OR: 0.97, 95 % CI: 0.94-0.99 for each additional year, P=0.01). CONCLUSION: The carriage of genotypic and phenotypic antimicrobial resistance is highly prevalent among E. coli in healthy children in the community in Vietnam. Future investigations on the carriage of antimicrobial resistant organisms in LMICs should focus on the progression of carriage from birth and structure of the microbiome in obesity

A Clinically Oriented antimicrobial Resistance surveillance Network (ACORN): pilot implementation in three countries in Southeast Asia, 2019-2020

Background: Case-based surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) provides more actionable data than isolate- or sample-based surveillance. We developed A Clinically Oriented antimicrobial Resistance surveillance Network (ACORN) as a lightweight but comprehensive platform, in which we combine clinical data collection with diagnostic stewardship, microbiological data collection and visualisation of the linked clinical-microbiology dataset. Data are compatible with WHO GLASS surveillance and can be stratified by syndrome and other metadata. Summary metrics can be visualised and fed back directly for clinical decision-making and to inform local treatment guidelines and national policy. Methods: An ACORN pilot was implemented in three hospitals in Southeast Asia (1 paediatric, 2 general) to collect clinical and microbiological data from patients with community- or hospital-acquired pneumonia, sepsis, or meningitis. The implementation package included tools to capture site and laboratory capacity information, guidelines on diagnostic stewardship, and a web-based data visualisation and analysis platform. Results: Between December 2019 and October 2020, 2294 patients were enrolled with 2464 discrete infection episodes (1786 community-acquired, 518 healthcare-associated and 160 hospital-acquired). Overall, 28-day mortality was 8.7%. Third generation cephalosporin resistance was identified in 54.2% (39/72) of E. coli and 38.7% (12/31) of K. pneumoniae isolates. Almost a quarter of S. aureus isolates were methicillin resistant (23.0%, 14/61). 290/2464 episodes could be linked to a pathogen, highlighting the level of enrolment required to achieve an acceptable volume of isolate data. However, the combination with clinical metadata allowed for more nuanced interpretation and immediate feedback of results. Conclusions: ACORN was technically feasible to implement and acceptable at site level. With minor changes from lessons learned during the pilot ACORN is now being scaled up and implemented in 15 hospitals in 9 low- and middle-income countries to generate sufficient case-based data to determine incidence, outcomes, and susceptibility of target pathogens among patients with infectious syndromes

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation