The Economic Impact of AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, a simple general equilibrium model à la Solow is developed to capture the impact of AIDS on economic growth. To this end, a benchmark model due to Cuddington and Hancock (1994) is extended in various directions. In particular, the sharply declining life expectancy patterns are clearly rejected in the enlarged model through a generic Ben-Porath mechanism. AIDS-related health expenditures are incorporated as well. Using up-do-date optimal forecasting methods, the model applied to South Africa shows that while a relatively short term assessment might not reveal any dramatic AIDS growth effect, the medium/long run impact can be truly devastating. In particular, the heavy trends in mortality and life expectancy currently induced by AIDS are shown to be potentially at least twice more detrimen-tal for per capita economic growth in the period 2020-2030 compared to 2000-2010.Epidemics, Life Expectancy, Economic Growth, AIDS

Stochastic environmental effects, demographic variation, and economic growth

We consider a stochastic environment to study interactions among pollution growth, demographic changes, and economic growth. Drawing on the empirical findings of slow convergence patterns of pollution shocks (viz., with a long-memory), we build an analytical framework where stochastic environmental feedback effects on population changes are reflected upon aggregate economic growth. Long-memory in economic growth, in our model, is shown to arise due to the inherent stochasticity in environmental and demographic system. Empirical results for a set of developed and developing countries generally support our conjecture. Simulation experiment is carried out to lend additional support to this claim.Environmental Quality, Long-memory, Demographic Dynamics, Economic Growth

The role of consumption and the financing of health investment under epidemic shocks

We study the behavior of consumption and health investment resulting from shocks undermining health capital accumulation. We examine the effects on subsequent life cycle of long-lived shocks undermining health with either an acceleration of health capital deterioration, or a decrease in health investment efficiency. We also address the issue of the financing of health investment. We provide new evidence based on nonparametric estimations which show complex non-linear interplay between life expectancy and health expenditure. We then develop a benchmark model where consumption and health capital enter additively in the utility function, featuring independence between the returns from ordinary consumption and health. Then, we depart from this setup by assuming non-additive preferences meaning that ordinary consumption also is crucial for health. We show that a shock undermining health which increases health expenditures and weakens the income base, not only affects savings but also compromises the consumption capacity, the human and physical capital of the economy, and undercuts the process of economic development. We also show that the magnitude of the effects strongly depends on the assumed preferences.consumption, health investments, savings, non-parametric estimation

Technology frontier, labor productivity and economic growth: Evidence from OECD countries

We use 29 OECD countries data spanning over 1960-2000 to study the growth strategy when countries are close to the technology frontier. Relying on a semi-parametric generalized additive model, we estimate labor productivity equations. We find that the number of agents enrolled in higher education is a determinant of growth. Moreover, when a country is sufficiently near the technology frontier thanks to an increasing R&D expenditure, it becomes optimal to invest in fundamental research, since after a short period of efficiency, business R&D can no longer ensure the transition toward the technology frontier, while higher education presents the opposite shape. These findings support the main assertion of Aghion and Cohen (2004) that countries which are near the technology frontier have to invest in higher education while those far away from the frontier make their technology level growing up by investing in primary and secondary schooling.Education, R&D, Labor Productivity, Economic Growth

The Growth economics of epidemics

This paper examines in an endogenous growth theory perspective the mechanisms through which epidemics affect long term growth. Investment in both physical and human capital are key transmission variables in this respect. The paper distinguishes between Spanish flu like epidemics and AIDS like epidemics. Two-sector growth models are shown to better reflect the specific effects of epidemics. The effects of an AIDS like pandemic on savings and education effort are also modelled via life expectancy. The paper is closed by an extension of the celebrated Cuddington-Hancock model to account for the latter features. An application to the South African case is provided. The main finding points at a delayed effect of Aids on economic growth due to the recent sharp drop in llife expectancy in this country.Epidemics, Human capital, Life expectancy, Growth theory, Spanish flu, AIDS

A closer look at the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth

We first provide a nonparametric inference of the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth on an historical data for 18 countries over the period 1820-2005. The obtained shape shows up convexity for low enough values of life expectancy and concavity for large enough values. We then study this relationship on a benchmark model combining "per- petual youth" and learning-by-investing. In such a benchmark, the generated relationship between life expectancy and economic growth is shown to be strictly increasing and concave. We finally examine a model departing from "perpetual youth" by assuming age-dependent survival probabilities. We show that life-cycle behavior combined with age-dependent sur- vival laws can reproduce our empirical finding.Life expectancy, economic growth, perpetual youth, age-dependent mortality, nonparametric estimation

Vintage capital and the diffusion of clean technologies

We develop a general equilibrium vintage capital model with energy-saving technological progress and an explicit energy sector to study the impact of investment subsidies on equilibrium investment and output. Energy and capital are assumed to be complementary in the production process. New machines are less energy consuming and scrapping is endogenous. Two polar market structures are considered for the energy market, free entry and natural monopoly. First, it is shown that investment subsidies may induce a larger equilibrium investment into cleaner technologies either under free entry or natural monopoly. However in the latter case, this happens if and only if the average cost is decreasing fast enough. Second, larger diffusion rates do not necessarily mean lower energy consumption at equilibrium, which may explain certain empirical observations.Energy-saving technological progress; vintage capital; market imperfections; natural monopoly; investment

Alien Registration- Theriault, Theophile (Caribou, Aroostook County)

https://digitalmaine.com/alien_docs/26618/thumbnail.jp

Alien Registration- Richard, Theophile (Lewiston, Androscoggin County)

https://digitalmaine.com/alien_docs/27607/thumbnail.jp