Simulating the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis and Policy Responses on Children in Ghana

Like many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana is experiencing the impact of the global crisis and the uncertain economic outlook. Indeed, as Ghana’s economy is among the most open in Africa, it is expected that the country has been and will continue to be severely affected by the crisis, although strong export prices of its main exports (gold and cocoa) may at least partially counteract the effects associated with the crisis. The main goal of this paper is to understand the potential impacts of the 2008/9 global crisis on different dimensions of child poverty (monetary, hunger, school participation, child labour and access to health services) in Ghana and to support the policy-maker in designing the most appropriate policy response to counteract the negative effects of the crisis. As timely data are not available, a combined macro-micro economic model to predict the impact of the global crisis on children was developed. Simulations suggest that the financial crisis would increase monetary poverty and hunger across all regions of Ghana, eroding many of the gains made over the past few years. Indeed, in comparison with the year preceding the crisis, instead of a reduction of four percentage points in child monetary poverty in 2011 predicted in the absence of crisis, the simulations indicate a 6.6 percentage point increase, with a continuous increasing pattern over the period of study. The global crisis is also predicted to severely deepen hunger among children, which is simulated to increase up to 6.6 percentage points in 2011 beginning with a sharp increase already in 2009. For both monetary poverty and hunger, the impact of the crisis differs across all regions, with the Eastern, Volta and Greater Accra regions predicted to be the most affected. Children’s participation in schooling and labour, as well as their access to health services, are forecast to be much less affected by the crisis, although it is found to reverse predicted increases in enrolment and health access (with substitution toward more modern types of health services) and forecasted reductions in child labour. Finally, alternative policy options have been simulated: a cash transfer programme targeted to poor children is found to be generally more effective in protecting children than food subsidies. Indeed, with a total budget equivalent to 1% of 2008 GDP, a cash transfer – equivalent to an individual annual amount of 19.8 Cedis – would cut the predicted increase in monetary poverty by over two percentage points in 2011. Although Ghana might be in a position to rapidly implement a cash transfer programme building on the existing Livelihood Empowerment against Poverty (LEAP) programme, other interventions (or mix of policies) might be more cost-effective in the short run. A combination of a universal or regionally targeted cash transfer programmes for children aged 0 to 5 years old, together with a school-feeding programme in poorer regions, might represent an effective way to intervene quickly to improve child well-being.Global economic crisis, child poverty, hunger, education, child labour, health, West and Central Africa, Ghana, social protection

Informal Cross-Border Artisanal Fish Trade in West Africa

This study examined informal cross-border artisanal fish trade in West Africa, using Ghana and her neighbouring countries as a case study. Both quantitative and qualitative approaches, including the use of interviews, Focus Group Discussions and questionnaires were used. The volume of informal cross-border fish trade between Ghana, Togo and Benin was estimated to be about 6,400 MT valued at about 70 million Ghana Cedis or $20 million per annum. Furthermore, the ICBT fish trade between Ghana and her neighbours was dominated by women. Regarding decision-making by traders on whether to participate in Informal Cross Border Trading (ICBT) or not, a logistic model was applied. It was found that basic education, road network condition, nearness of trader’s residence to a border, membership to a fish trade association and access to market information were significant at 5% significance level. The gross profit margin for ICBT in fish was 20.4%. The study also found that the key significant determinants of ICBT profitability at the 5% level were: age of traders; the number of years in the fish trade; and access to market information. Access to trade credit was significant at the 10% level. Meanwhile the interviews and discussions highlighted the lack of formal credit, poor road networks and undeveloped markets sites as major challenges facing the fish traders, while they have internalized police and other checkpoints into their pricing decisions. Other challenges were the short shelf life of the cured fish in recent years due to the suspected use of chemicals by artisanal fishers. From the survey, transportation related costs constituted the highest proportion of cross-border fish traders’ transaction cost which adversely affected profitability. The study recommends the upgrading of infrastructure to market sites and also within them, including the provision of good storage facilities. Secondly, Fisheries Authorities should make price information easy to access and reduce the incidence of illegal fishing methods to allow trading of longer shelf life and larger matured fish. Other stakeholders could assist the formation of stronger fish trade associations which could do more advocacy both on the domestic and international fora concerning their challenges. To facilitate eligibility for formal credit, the need for basic training in book-keeping and formal registration through membership of trader associations was also recommended

Simulating the Impact of the Global Economic Crisis and Policy Responses on Children in Ghana

Like many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana is experiencing the impact of the global crisis and the uncertain economic outlook. Indeed, as Ghana’s economy is among the most open in Africa, it is expected that the country has been and will continue to be severely affected by the crisis, although strong export prices of its main exports (gold and cocoa) may at least partially counteract the effects associated with the crisis. The main goal of this paper is to understand the potential impacts of the 2008/9 global crisis on different dimensions of child poverty (monetary, hunger, school participation, child labour and access to health services) in Ghana and to support the policy-maker in designing the most appropriate policy response to counteract the negative effects of the crisis. As timely data are not available, a combined macro-micro economic model to predict the impact of the global crisis on children was developed. Simulations suggest that the financial crisis would increase monetary poverty and hunger across all regions of Ghana, eroding many of the gains made over the past few years. Indeed, in comparison with the year preceding the crisis, instead of a reduction of four percentage points in child monetary poverty in 2011 predicted in the absence of crisis, the simulations indicate a 6.6 percentage point increase, with a continuous increasing pattern over the period of study.child education; child health; child labour; child poverty; econometric models; economic crisis; hunger; social protection;