Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions

The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of 'perfect model' experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts show lower skill before a May 'predictability barrier'. We demonstrate that in forecasts started from January, predictions of route opening date are twice as uncertain as predicting the closing date and that the Arctic shipping season is becoming longer due to climate change, with later closing dates mostly responsible. We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than medium ice years. Forecasting the fastest open water route through the Arctic is accurate to within 200 km when predicted from July, a six-fold increase in accuracy compared to forecasts initialised from the previous November, which are typically no better than climatology. Finally we find that initialisation of accurate summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts, further motivating investment into sea-ice thickness observations, climate models, and assimilation systems

Monotowns and the political economy of industrial restructuring in Russia

During the 2008-2009 economic crisis, Russia\u27s monotowns - one-industry towns left from the Soviet era - gained widespread attention as potential sources of social protest and unrest. Will such worries resurface under current economic conditions? While fears about monotowns were exaggerated during the last economic crisis, Russia\u27s leadership has reason to remain concerned. Despite the dramatic transformations of the last two decades, Russia\u27s post-Soviet industrial landscape has largely survived intact, leaving a significant number of monotowns with unprofitable enterprises in a precarious position. Yet given its emphasis on social stability, we can expect the government to continue subsidies, both explicit and hidden, that seek to maintain employment and avoid social conflict, but that preserve the country\u27s inefficient industrial geography