Aging and Economic Growth: Issues Relevant to Singapore

The paper studies the effects of the changing age and education composition of the labour force on productivity growth in Singapore. The quality change of workers from aging and education is measured through a quality index. Quality change through education is the key driving force for the productive performance of the labour force. On the other hand, the growth in the labour quality of workers by age, and hence, its contribution to labour productivity growth is falling. To moderate the impact of the aging labour force on productivity growth, greater efforts to raise the educational profile of the labour force and to re-train older workers are required.

Linkages and Spillovers from Foreign Ownership in the Indian Pharmaceutical Firms

The paper examines the spillover and linkage effects from the presence of foreign firms in the Indian pharmaceutical industry. A comprehensive panel data consisting of nearly 200 firms from 1989 to 2000 was used in the current study. The recent semi-parametric estimation methods as suggested by Olley and Pakes (1996) and Levinsohn and Petrin (2003) were adopted to account for the endogeneity in the input demand. Our results suggest the existence of positive and significant spillover from the foreign equity ownership in the Indian pharmaceutical industry. However, we also found negative and significant spillovers from the backward linkages with foreign firms. The negative spillovers from the backward linkages suggest the possibility of large technology and efficiency gap between local and foreign firms. The results also suggest that institutional arrangements that protect intellectual property rights such as product patents as opposed to process patents will be important for establishing positive linkages and spillovers between local and foreign firms in the Indian pharmaceutical industry.FDI, Backward and Horizontal Linkages, Olley-Pakes, Levinsohn-Petrin

Singapore Information Sector: A Study Using Input-Output Table

The paper measures the impact of information technology on the output growth of Singapore economy. A vibrant information sector will play an important catalytic role in developing Singapore into a knowledge-based economy. The analysis provided in the paper support the assertion that information economy will be a precursor to a knowledge-based economy. The information sector grew in tandem with the expansion of export in the first half of the 1990s. By the second half of the 1990s, it developed sufficient momentum and capability to expand domestically as a cluster. The use of ICT as intermediate input is found to be generally pervasive in the economy. The paper also investigated the impact of falling prices of information input on sectoral GDP. It is found that for a 10% decrease in information input prices, the sector GDPs had to increase by 0.05% to 2.2%. The overall impact for the economy is a positive 0.84% increase in national income (GDP) for a 10% decline in information input prices.

Foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in selected emerging countries: Multivariate VAR analysis

The paper adopts a time series framework of the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to study the dynamic relationship between export, FDI and GDP for six emerging countries of Chile, India, Mexico, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. Stationarity of the series with structural breaks is also examined in the model. Given that these countries are at different stages of growth, we will be able to identify the impact of FDI and export on economic growth at different stages of growth. The results suggest that in South Asia, there is evidence of an export led growth hypothesis. However, in the long run, we identify GDP growth as the common factor that drives growth in other variables such as exports in the case of Pakistan and FDI in the case of India. The Latin American countries of Mexico and Chile show a different relationship in the short run but in the long run, exports affect the growth of FDI and output. In the case of East Asian countries, we find bi-directional long run relationship among exports, FDI and GDP in Malaysia, while we find a long run uni-directional relationship from GDP to export in case of Thailand.FDI, Exports, Multivariate VAR, Pakistan, India, Malaysia, Thailand, Chile, Mexico.

Integration, decoupling and the global financial crisis: A global perspective

The recent global recession requires policy makers to identify the relative importance of shock transmission mechanisms in each region and devise counter policy measures against future idiosyncratic shocks. In the last decade, world dynamics have changed considerably due to increased openness and integration requiring considering business cycles at regional levels. This paper analyzes the business cycle movements of the EU, ASEAN+3, NAFTA, MERCOSUR and SAARC regions to investigate why the subprime mortgage crisis of 2007 did not spread globally compared to the crisis that began with the fall of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Employing a Panel Vector Autoregressive framework (PVEC), this study finds that the subprime mortgage crisis shock originated in the real sector (falling US housing prices) and was transmitted through trade variables. Due to absence of short term trade variables transmission mechanism in all regions except the MERCOSUR and SAARC, the shock did not spread widely to other regions. Even in the MERCOSUR and SAARC, due to limited goods exports exposure to the US, the shock was not significant. Resultantly, these regions exhibited a decoupling phenomenon during the subprime mortgage crisis. In contrast, the second shock originated with the fall of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and was transmitted through financial variables. Due to the presence of the short term causal relationship of the financial variable with GDP in all regions except SAARC, the slowdown contagion spread to most regions. As a result, the slowdown triggered the trade variables shock transmission mechanism and the SAARC region was also affected. Consequently, a business cycle convergence phenomenon was observed in the regions. Therefore, business cycles decoupling and convergence phenomena in the regions depend not only on the origin of the shock but also on the relative importance of the transmission mechanisms in each region.Integration, Decoupling, Financial crisis, EU, NAFTA, ASEAN, MERCOSUR, SAARC, Business cycle, FDI, Exports, Intra industry Trade, Sub prime mortgage crisis, Lehman Brothers, Short term capital flows, Panel Cointegration, Panel stationarity, Panel Vector Error Correction (PVEC)

Climate change and poverty reduction: Where does official development assistance money go?

There is an urgent need to mainstream the key challenges of climate change into sector and development planning and decision making processes to create sustainable long-term development. Mainstreaming is seen as making more efficient and effective use of financial and human resources. It is implementing and managing climate change policy holistically, which sustains development, rather than undertaking piecemeal activities. This involves building mitigation and adaptation capacity in both micro and macro economic development. Climate change is not only a national phenomenon but also a global phenomenon that requires the participation of both the public and private sectors. The importance of private sector participation is highlighted by the magnitude of the investment needed to manage climate change, and the fact that market mechanisms seem to be more effective in addressing climate change than does the public sector. Public sector involvement - such as grants, overseas development assistance (ODA), and funding from other countries - is equally important in mitigation and adaptation projects. Empirical results in this study emphasize that more caution is needed in directing ODA towards climate change mitigation and adaptation due to the links between various macroeconomic variables related to growth and poverty reduction. This implies that ODA given to other important causes related to achieving the Millennium Development Goals should not be reduced. The results show that energy efficient transfer of technology to developing countries should accompany any efforts towards directing ODA towards mitigation. Without that, ODA directed towards mitigation may have adverse effects on the pace of poverty reduction in developing countries. Thus, involvement of the private sector becomes crucial for energy efficient technological innovation and transfer

Foreign direct investment, exports, and economic growth in selected emerging countries: Multivariate VAR analysis

The paper adopts a time series framework of the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) to study the dynamic relationship between export, FDI and GDP for six emerging countries of Chile, India, Mexico, Malaysia, Pakistan and Thailand. Stationarity of the series with structural breaks is also examined in the model. Given that these countries are at different stages of growth, we will be able to identify the impact of FDI and export on economic growth at different stages of growth. The results suggest that in South Asia, there is evidence of an export led growth hypothesis. However, in the long run, we identify GDP growth as the common factor that drives growth in other variables such as exports in the case of Pakistan and FDI in the case of India. The Latin American countries of Mexico and Chile show a different relationship in the short run but in the long run, exports affect the growth of FDI and output. In the case of East Asian countries, we find bi-directional long run relationship among exports, FDI and GDP in Malaysia, while we find a long run uni-directional relationship from GDP to export in case of Thailand