Outward Influence and Cascade Size Estimation in Billion-scale Networks

Estimating cascade size and nodes' influence is a fundamental task in social, technological, and biological networks. Yet this task is extremely challenging due to the sheer size and the structural heterogeneity of networks. We investigate a new influence measure, termed outward influence (OI), defined as the (expected) number of nodes that a subset of nodes $S$ will activate, excluding the nodes in S. Thus, OI equals, the de facto standard measure, influence spread of S minus |S|. OI is not only more informative for nodes with small influence, but also, critical in designing new effective sampling and statistical estimation methods. Based on OI, we propose SIEA/SOIEA, novel methods to estimate influence spread/outward influence at scale and with rigorous theoretical guarantees. The proposed methods are built on two novel components 1) IICP an important sampling method for outward influence, and 2) RSA, a robust mean estimation method that minimize the number of samples through analyzing variance and range of random variables. Compared to the state-of-the art for influence estimation, SIEA is $\Omega(\log^4 n)$ times faster in theory and up to several orders of magnitude faster in practice. For the first time, influence of nodes in the networks of billions of edges can be estimated with high accuracy within a few minutes. Our comprehensive experiments on real-world networks also give evidence against the popular practice of using a fixed number, e.g. 10K or 20K, of samples to compute the "ground truth" for influence spread.Comment: 16 pages, SIGMETRICS 201

Importance Sketching of Influence Dynamics in Billion-scale Networks

The blooming availability of traces for social, biological, and communication networks opens up unprecedented opportunities in analyzing diffusion processes in networks. However, the sheer sizes of the nowadays networks raise serious challenges in computational efficiency and scalability. In this paper, we propose a new hyper-graph sketching framework for inflence dynamics in networks. The central of our sketching framework, called SKIS, is an efficient importance sampling algorithm that returns only non-singular reverse cascades in the network. Comparing to previously developed sketches like RIS and SKIM, our sketch significantly enhances estimation quality while substantially reducing processing time and memory-footprint. Further, we present general strategies of using SKIS to enhance existing algorithms for influence estimation and influence maximization which are motivated by practical applications like viral marketing. Using SKIS, we design high-quality influence oracle for seed sets with average estimation error up to 10x times smaller than those using RIS and 6x times smaller than SKIM. In addition, our influence maximization using SKIS substantially improves the quality of solutions for greedy algorithms. It achieves up to 10x times speed-up and 4x memory reduction for the fastest RIS-based DSSA algorithm, while maintaining the same theoretical guarantees.Comment: 12 pages, to appear in ICDM 2017 as a regular pape

Finding Community Structure with Performance Guarantees in Complex Networks

Many networks including social networks, computer networks, and biological networks are found to divide naturally into communities of densely connected individuals. Finding community structure is one of fundamental problems in network science. Since Newman's suggestion of using \emph{modularity} as a measure to qualify the goodness of community structures, many efficient methods to maximize modularity have been proposed but without a guarantee of optimality. In this paper, we propose two polynomial-time algorithms to the modularity maximization problem with theoretical performance guarantees. The first algorithm comes with a \emph{priori guarantee} that the modularity of found community structure is within a constant factor of the optimal modularity when the network has the power-law degree distribution. Despite being mainly of theoretical interest, to our best knowledge, this is the first approximation algorithm for finding community structure in networks. In our second algorithm, we propose a \emph{sparse metric}, a substantially faster linear programming method for maximizing modularity and apply a rounding technique based on this sparse metric with a \emph{posteriori approximation guarantee}. Our experiments show that the rounding algorithm returns the optimal solutions in most cases and are very scalable, that is, it can run on a network of a few thousand nodes whereas the LP solution in the literature only ran on a network of at most 235 nodes

Dengue epidemic in southern Vietnam, 1998.

A widespread epidemic of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) occurred in southern Vietnam in 1998, with 438.98 cases/100,000 population and 342 deaths. The number of DHF cases and deaths per 100,000 population increased 152.4% and 151.8%, respectively, over a 1997 epidemic. Dengue viruses were isolated from 143 patient blood samples; DEN-3 virus was identified as the predominant serotype, although a resurgence of DEN-4 was noted

Verifiably Truthful Mechanisms

It is typically expected that if a mechanism is truthful, then the agents would, indeed, truthfully report their private information. But why would an agent believe that the mechanism is truthful? We wish to design truthful mechanisms, whose truthfulness can be verified efficiently (in the computational sense). Our approach involves three steps: (i) specifying the structure of mechanisms, (ii) constructing a verification algorithm, and (iii) measuring the quality of verifiably truthful mechanisms. We demonstrate this approach using a case study: approximate mechanism design without money for facility location