Intra-Rural Fertility Determinants in Zimbabwe: A Path Analysis Intra-Rural Fertility Determinants in Zimbabwe: A Path Analysis

Studies on spatial fertility differentials in sub-Sahara Africa normally treat the rural sector as a single and uniform geographical entity. This approach, unfortunately, tends to mask differences, which may exist between components of the rural sub-sectors. This empirical study, based on both quantitative analyses and participatory methodologies, has stratified one rural district in southwestern Zimbabwe, into communal lands and resettlement schemes, in order to investigate the fertility differentials at intra-rural levels. The working hypothesis is that because the respective rural sub-areas differ in their levels of socioeconomic development, the relative impacts of the determinants of fertility should reflect these differences. Data on fertility patterns and their correlates were extracted from 1,542 married mothers, within the ages of 15-49, in the rural district. 832 of these were from the resettlement areas and 710 were selected from communal lands. Results from a descriptive bivariate model confirmed that resettlement areas have higher fertility than the communal lands. The present study utilizes path analysis, which is considered appropriate for investigating the direct and indirect causes of fertility differentials. It is shown that direct and indirect effects on fertility do not always operate uniformly between the two rural sub-sectors. On the basis of the findings, conclusions and recommendations are drawn

TOWARDS A THEORETICAL EXPLORATION OF THE DIFFERENTIAL URBANISATION MODEL IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: THE BOTSWANA CASE

This paper investigates the extent to which the differential urbanisation model is applicable to Botswana by using empirical data obtained from periodic censuses, supportive documentary information and observations from personal on-going research on urbanisation and migration. Differential urbanisation refers to the cyclic spatio-temporal growth trends that the elements of human settlement hierarchies undergo, in response to migration. Empirical studies have verified the validity of differential urbanisation in the United States, Europe, India and South Africa. These areas, unlike Botswana, have longer histories of urbanisation, larger population sizes, denser population distributions, and higher levels of economic development. Current research interest is focused on investigating the theoretical applicability of the differential urbanisation model to those countries at the lower end of the economic development spectrum. The rationale and thrust of this paper is to therefore investigate the relevance of differential urbanisation under unique environmental, demographic and socio-economic conditions that pertain to Botswana. Evidence from the paper shows that urbanisation in Botswana has occurred in sequenced phases that, in general, resemble those suggested by the differential urbanisation model in the following ways. First, there has been concentration in the primate city due to mainstream migration. Secondly, there has been fission leading to the fast growth of the adjacent intermediate settlements, partly as a result of deglomeration economies at the primate core accompanied by substream migration. Third, the peripheral regional and rural centres appear to be now growing relatively rapidly, in response to the implementation of decentralisation policies. Copyright (c) 2006 by the Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG.