Do public health interventions crowd out private health investments? Malaria control policies in Eritrea

It is often argued that engaging in indoor residual spraying (IRS) in areas with high coverage of mosquito bed nets may discourage net ownership and use. This is just a case of a public program inducing perverse incentives. We analyze new data from a randomized control trial conducted in Eritrea which surprisingly shows the opposite: IRS encouraged net acquisition and use. Our evidence points to the role of imperfect information. The introduction of IRS may have made the problem of malaria more salient, leading to a change in beliefs about its importance and to an increase in private health investments

Interpreting household survey data intended to measure insecticide-treated bednet coverage: results from two surveys in Eritrea

BACKGROUND: As efforts are currently underway to roll-out insecticide-treated bednets (ITNs) to populations within malarious areas in Africa, there is an unprecedented need for data to measure the effectiveness of such programmes in terms of population coverage. This paper examines methodological issues to using household surveys to measure core Roll Back Malaria coverage indicators of ITN possession and use. METHODS: ITN coverage estimates within Anseba and Gash Barka Provinces from the 2002 Eritrean Demographic and Health Survey, implemented just prior to a large-scale ITN distribution programme, are compared to estimates from the same area from a sub-national Bednet Survey implemented 18 months later in 2003 after the roll-out of the ITN programme. RESULTS: Measures of bednet possession were dramatically higher in 2003 compared to 2002. In 2003, 82.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 77.4–87.0) of households in Anseba and Gash Barka possessed at least one ITN. RBM coverage indicators for ITN use were also dramatically higher in 2003 as compared to 2002, with 76.1% (95% CI 69.9–82.2) of children under five years old and 52.4% (95% CI 38.2–66.6) of pregnant women sleeping under ITNs. The ITN distribution programme resulted in a gross increase in ITN use among children and pregnant women of 68.3% and 48% respectively. CONCLUSION: Eritrea has exceeded the Abuja targets of 60% coverage for ITN household possession and use among children under five years old within two malarious provinces. Results point to several important potential sources of bias that must be considered when interpreting data for ITN coverage over time, including: disparate survey universes and target populations that may include non-malarious areas; poor date recall of bednet procurement and treatment; and differences in timing of surveys with respect to malaria season

Malaria Stratification, Climate, and Epidemic Early Warning in Eritrea

Eritrea has a successful malaria control program, but it is still susceptible to devastating malaria epidemics. Monthly data on clinical malaria cases from 242 health facilities in 58 subzobas (districts) of Eritrea from 1996 to 2003 were used in a novel stratification process using principal component analysis and nonhierarchical clustering to define five areas with distinct malaria intensity and seasonality patterns, to guide future interventions and development of an epidemic early warning system. Relationships between monthly clinical malaria incidence by subzoba and monthly climate data from several sources, and with seasonal climate forecasts, were investigated. Remotely sensed climate data were averaged over the same subzoba geographic administrative units as the malaria cases. Although correlation was good between malaria anomalies and actual rainfall from ground stations (lagged by 2 months), the stations did not have sufficiently even coverage to be widely useful. Satellite derived rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation was correlated with malaria incidence anomalies, with a lead time of 2–3 months. NDVI anomalies were highly correlated with malaria incidence anomalies, particularly in the semi-arid north of the country and along the northern Red Sea coast, which is a highly epidemic-prone area. Eritrea has 2 distinct rainy seasons in different parts of the country. The seasonal forecasting skill from Global Circulation Models for the June/July/August season was low except for the Eastern border. For the coastal October/November/December season, forecasting skill was good only during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. For epidemic control, shorter-range warning based on remotely sensed rainfall estimates and an enhanced epidemic early-detection system based on data derived for this study are needed

Costs and consequences of large-scale vector control for malaria.

BACKGROUND: Five large insecticide-treated net (ITN) programmes and two indoor residual spraying (IRS) programmes were compared using a standardized costing methodology. METHODS: Costs were measured locally or derived from existing studies and focused on the provider perspective, but included the direct costs of net purchases by users, and are reported in 2005 USD. Effectiveness was estimated by combining programme outputs with standard impact indicators. FINDINGS: Conventional ITNs: The cost per treated net-year of protection ranged from USD 1.21 in Eritrea to USD 6.05 in Senegal. The cost per child death averted ranged from USD 438 to USD 2,199 when targeting to children was successful.Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) of five years duration: The cost per treated-net year of protection ranged from USD 1.38 in Eritrea to USD 1.90 in Togo. The cost per child death averted ranged from USD 502 to USD 692.IRS: The costs per person-year of protection for all ages were USD 3.27 in KwaZulu Natal and USD 3.90 in Mozambique. If only children under five years of age were included in the denominator the cost per person-year of protection was higher: USD 23.96 and USD 21.63. As a result, the cost per child death averted was higher than for ITNs: USD 3,933-4,357. CONCLUSION: Both ITNs and IRS are highly cost-effective vector control strategies. Integrated ITN free distribution campaigns appeared to be the most efficient way to rapidly increase ITN coverage. Other approaches were as or more cost-effective, and appeared better suited to "keep-up" coverage levels. ITNs are more cost-effective than IRS for highly endemic settings, especially if high ITN coverage can be achieved with some demographic targeting

Seasonal abundance, vector behavior, and malaria parasite transmission in Eritrea

Entomological studies were conducted over a 24-month period in 8 villages to establish the behavior patterns, seasonal densities, and variation in entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) of Anopheles arabiensis, the main vector of malaria in Eritrea. A total of 5,683 anopheline mosquitoes were collected through indoor sampling (1,613), human-landing catches (2,711), and outdoor pit shelters (1,359). Overall, An. arabiensis was the predominant species at all of the study sites, with its population density increasing during the rainy season. Peak indoor-resting densities was observed during September and October. Human landing indices for An. arabiensis averaged 1.9 and 3.8 per person per night in October and September, respectively. Peak biting and landing rates occurred between 2000-2200 h and 0100-0300 h. Of the total number of bites, 44.7% occurred between 1800 and 2300 h, and at least 56.5% of the total bites occurred outdoors, indicating that the species was partially exophagic. The fed to gravid ratio for An. arabiensis in indoor-resting collections was 2:1, indicating some degree of exophily. The sporozoite rates (SRs) for An. arabiensis ranged from 0.54% in the Anseba zone to 1.3% in the Gash-Barka zone. One mosquito each of An. d'thali (SR = 0.45%) and An. cinereus (SR = 2.13%) was found to be positive. Of the total positive An. arabiensis (n = 64), 18.2% came from human-landing collections outdoors. Blood-meal analysis by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for An. arabiensis indicated that this species was partially zoophilic with a human to bovine ratio of 2:1 being recorded. The EIR profiles indicated that malaria transmission is highly seasonal, increasing during the wet season and declining drastically during the dry season. On average, the greatest risk of infection occurs in Hiletsidi, in the Gash-Barka zone (6.5 infective bites per month). The exophilic behavior and early evening biting of An. arabiensis present obstacles for control with treated bed-nets and indoor residual spraying within the context of integrated malaria control, and call for greater focus on strategies such as larval control

Effectiveness of malaria control during changing climate conditions in Eritrea, 1998-2003

Objective: To assess the effectiveness of impregnated mosquito nets, indoor residual spraying and larval control relative to the impacts of climate variability in the decline of malaria cases in Eritrea.\ud \ud Methods: Monthly data on clinical malaria cases by subzoba (district) in three zobas (zones) of Eritrea for 1998–2003 were used in Poisson regression models to determine whether there is statistical evidence for reduction in cases by DDT, malathion, impregnated nets and larval control used over the period, while analysing the effects of satellite-derived climate variables in the same geographic areas.\ud \ud Results: Both indoor residual spraying (with DDT or malathion) and impregnated nets were independently and significantly negatively associated with reduction in cases, as was larval control in one zoba. Malaria cases were significantly positively related to differences in current and previous months’ vegetation (NDVI) anomalies. The relationship to rainfall differences 2 and 3 months previously was also significant, but the direction of the effect varied by zoba. Standardized regression coefficients indicated a greater effect of climate in the zoba with less intense malaria transmission.\ud \ud Conclusion: The results support the view that both indoor residual spraying and impregnated nets have been independently effective against malaria, and that larval control was also effective in one area. Thus climate, while significant, is not the only explanation for the recent decline in malaria cases in Eritrea. If appropriate statistical approaches are used, routine surveillance data from cases attending health facilities can be useful for assessing control programme success and providing estimates of the effectiveness of individual control measures. Effectiveness estimates suitable for use in cost-effectiveness analysis have been obtained