Comparative Advantage, Relative Wages, and the Accumulation of Human Capital

I apply Ricardo’s principle of comparative advantage to a theory of factor substitutability in a model with a continuum of worker and job types. Highly skilled workers have a comparative advantage in complex jobs. The model satisfies the distance-dependent elasticity of substitution (DIDES) characteristic: substitutability between types declines with their skill distance. I analyze changes in relative wages due to human capital accumulation. The concept of a complexity dispersion parameter or compression elasticity is introduced. Empirical studies suggest its value to be equal to two: a 1 percent increase in the stock of human capital reduces the Mincerian return by 2 percent

Sorting and the Output Loss due to Search Frictions

We analyze a general search model with on-the-job search and sorting of heterogeneous workers into heterogeneous jobs. This model yields a simple relationship between (i) the unemployment rate, (ii) the value of non-market time, and (iii) the max-mean wage differential. The latter measure of wage dispersion is more robust than measures based on the reservation wage, due to the long left tail of the wage distribution. We estimate this wage differential using data on match quality and allow for measurement error. The estimated wage dispersion and mismatch for the US is consistent with an unemployment rate of 4-6%. We find that without search frictions, output would be between 7.5% and 18.5% higher, depending on whether or not firms can ex ante commit to wage payments.on-the-job search, wage dispersion, mismatch, output loss due to frictions

The Right Man for the Job: Increasing Returns in Search?

This paper describes a search model with a continuum of worker and job types, transferable utility and an IRS contact technology. We apply a second order Taylor expansion to derive an analytical solution of the equilibrium. We find that one third of the increasing returns in contacts are absorbed by firms and workers being more choosy. Hence, strongly increasing returns in contact rates are consistent with weakly increasing returns in matching. In addition, we derive and decompose the efficiency loss due to inadequate incentives and show how unemployment benefits can reduce the loss. Finally, we derive a relation between the size of the surplus due to search frictions and the degree of substitutability of worker types at given job complexity levels. Numerical simulations of the model show that our approximations are quite accurate.

Rhineland exit?

We argue in favor of the shareholder model of the firm for three main reasons. First, serving multiple stakeholders leads to ill-defined property rights. What sounds like a fair compromise between stakeholders can easily evolve in a permanent struggle about the ultimate goal of the company. Second, giving workers a claim on the surplus of the firm raises the cost of capital for investments in jobs. Third, making shareholders the ultimate owner of the firm provides the best possible diversification of firm-specific risks. Diversification of firm-specific risk on capital markets is an efficient form of social insurance. Hence, firms should bear the full cost of specific investment, while workers should be paid only their outside option. Empirical results for Denmark, Portugal and the United States show that Denmark is closest to the first-best outcome, while Portugal and the United States deviate in different ways. Coordination in wage bargaining and collective norms help reduce the claim of workers on the firm's surplus. Collective action, however, is a mixed blessing because politicians also face the temptation to please incumbent workers with short-run gains at the expense of exposing workers to firm-specific risks and reducing job creation. The transition from the Rhineland towards the shareholder model is fraught with difficulties. While society reaps long-run gains in efficiency, in the short run a generation of insiders has to give up their rights

Is economic recovery a myth? Robust estimation of impulse responses

There is a lively debate on the persistence of the current banking crisis' impact on GDP. Impulse Response Functions (IRF) estimated by Cerra and Saxena (2008) suggest that the effects of earlier crises were long-lasting. We show that standard estimates of IRFs are highly sensitive to misspecification of the underlying data generation process. Direct estimation of IRFs by a methodology similar to Jorda's (2005) local projection method is robust to misspecifications of the data generation process but yields biased estimates when country fixed effects are added. We propose a simple method to deal with this bias, which we apply to panel data from 99 countries for the period 1974-2001. Our estimates suggest that an average banking crisis leads to an output loss of around 10 percent with little sign of recovery. GDP losses from banking crises are more severe for African countries and economies in transition

Insurance and Information: Firms as a Commitment Device

We explore the role of firms in insuring non-verifiable output. As a device that allows workers to commit to thedelivery of their output, the firm arises endogenously as an alternative to the market if workers are sufficiently riskaverse and the firm can base its incentive payments on good information. Competition, however, may allow themarket and explicit contracts to crowd out implicit insurance, even though the latter yields higher welfare.Integrating the principal-agent and shirking models, we explain why different contracting modes coexist in quitehomogeneous industries

Rhineland exit?

We argue in favour of the shareholder model of the firm for three main reasons. First, serving multiple stakeholders leads to ill-defined property rights. What sounds like a fair compromise between stakeholders can easily evolve in a permanent struggle between the stakeholders about the ultimate goal of the company. In many cases, the vague Rhineland principles no longer offer much protection to workers. Second, giving workers a claim on the surplus of the firm raises the cost of capital for investments in jobs, which harms the position of job seekers, including new entrants to the labour market. Third, and most importantly, making shareholders the ultimate owner of the firm provides the best possible diversification of firm-specific risks. Whereas globalisation has increased firm-specific risk by intensifying competition, globalisation of capital markets has also greatly increased the scope for diversification of firm-specific risk. Diversification of this risk on the capital market is an efficient form of social insurance. Reducing the claims of workers on the surplus of the firm can be seen as the next step in the emancipation of workers. Workers derive their security not from the firm that employs them but from the value of their own human capital. In such a world, global trade in corporate control, global competition and creative destruction associated with these developments are more legitimate.Coordination in wage bargaining and collective norms on what is proper compensation play an important role in reducing the claim of workers on the firm’s surplus, thereby protecting workers against firm-specific risks. Indeed, in Denmark, workers bear less firm-specific risk than workers in the United States do. Collective action thus has an important role to play. Politicians, however, also face the temptation to please voters and incumbent workers with short-run gains at the expense of exposing workers to firm-specific risks and reducing job creation. This is why corporate governance legislation that gives moral legitimacy to the claim of insiders on the surplus of the firm is damaging.The transition from the Rhineland model (in which management serves the interests of all stakeholders) towards the shareholder model is fraught with difficulties. While society reaps long-run gains in efficiency, in the short run a generation of insiders has to give up their rights without benefiting from increased job creation and higher starting wages. Whereas the claims of older workers on the surplus of a firm may thus have some legitimacy, younger cohorts should be denied such moral claims. These problems require extreme political skill to solve. In particular, they may require some grandfathering provisions or temporary explicit transfers from younger to older generations

Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses

We estimate the impulse response function (IRF) of GDP toa banking crisis, applying an extension of the local projectionsmethod developed in Jorda (2005). This method is shown to bemore robust to misspecification than calculating IRFs analytically. However, it suffers from a hitherto unnoticed systematicbias which increases with the forecast horizon. We propose asimple correction to this bias, which our Monte Carlo simulations show works well. Applying our corrected local projectionsestimator to a panel of 99 countries observed between 1974-2001,we find that an average banking crisis yields a long-term GDP lossof around 10 percent with little sign of recovery within 10 years.GDP losses to banking crises are even more severe in Africancountries. Like the original Jorda's (2005) method, our extensionof it is quite widely applicable

Sin City?

Is moving to the countryside a credible commitment device for couples? We investigate whether lowering the arrival rate of potential alternative partners by moving to a less populated area lowers the dissolution risk for a sample of Danish couples. We find that of the couples who married in the city, the ones who stay in the city have significant higher divorce rates. Similarly, for the couples who married outside the city, the ones who move to the city are more likely to divorce. This correlation can be explained by both a causal and a sorting effect. We disentangle them by using the timing-of-events approach. In addition we use information on father’s location as an instrument. We find that the sorting effect dominates. Moving to the countryside is therefore not a cheap way to prolong relationships.dissolution; search; mobility; city

An Empirical Measure for Labor Market Density

In this paper we derive a structural measure for labor market density based on the Ellison and Glasear (1997) Index for industry concentration. This labor market density measure serves as a proxy for the number of workers that can reach a certain work area within a reasonal amount of traveling time. We apply this measure to a standard wage equation and find that it takes account of almost half of the cross region wage variance (not explained by other observables). Moreover, it explains substantially more than the traditional density measure: people per square mile