The 2007 Comprehensive Spending Review: a challenging spending review?

In advance of the publication of the CSR, this briefing note examines what we already know about the CSR settlement, what remains to be announced and what this might imply for government departments and public services

Taxation

This Briefing Note examines the evolution of the tax burden over the last 50 years. It then looks at the proposals in the parties' manifestos. * Net taxes and National Insurance contributions have risen from 34.8% of national income in 1996ֹ7 to 36.3% in 2004ְ5. According to Treasury projections, these will rise to 38.5% of national income in 2008ְ9. This would be the highest level since 1984ָ5. * Total government revenues have averaged 38.4% of national income under the two Labour governments, compared with 40.6% over the 18 years of Conservative government from 1979 to 1997. According to Treasury forecasts, revenues will equal 39.3% of national income in 2005ְ6, rising to 40.6% by 2009ֱ0. This would be the highest level since 1988ָ9. * Over Labourҳ two parliaments since 1997, current receipts have risen by 3.5% a year on average, in real terms, while national income rose by 2.8% on average, leaving national income minus tax to rise at 2.4% on average. * Of the total ò8.5 billion revenue increase seen since 1996ֹ7, ñ9.1 billion was due to discretionary changes to the tax system, with the remainder being due to the impact of the economy on overall revenues. The largest discretionary change occurred in the first Budget after the 2001 election (the Spring 2002 Budget), which increased taxes to yield an additional ù.9 billion by 2005ְ6. * Between 1997 and 2005, the UK saw one of the highest increases in revenues among OECD countries, although the UK remains a low-tax economy compared with EU countries

Interim evaluation of saving gateway 2

The Saving Gateway is a government initiative aimed at encouraging savings behaviour among people who do not usually save. Each pound placed into a Saving Gateway account is matched by the government at a certain rate and up to a monthly contribution limit. Matching provides a transparent and understandable incentive for eligible individuals to place funds in an account. An initial pilot of the Saving Gateway - SG1 - has already been conducted and evaluated. In the December 2004 Pre-Budget Report, the Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a new, larger scale, pilot of the Saving Gateway - SG2. Almost 21,500 individuals have opened SG2 accounts across six areas of England. The design of these accounts - in terms of the match rate and monthly contribution limit - varies across these areas. Alongside the financial incentive to place funds in a SG2 account, the pilots also offer financial education

Better prepared for retirement? Using panel data to improve wealth estimates of ELSA respondents

We compare the key assumptions underpinning estimates of the pension wealth of ELSA respondents to outcomes over the period from 2002–03 to 2004–05. We find that many of these assumptions have, on average, proved cautious or reasonable. Improving pension wealth calculations using this new evidence makes little difference to the distribution of pension wealth. Previous estimates of retirement resources also considered net financial, physical and housing wealth. Particularly cautious, ex-post, was the assumption that net housing wealth would remain constant in real terms. We find that average housing wealth has risen by almost 40% in nominal terms over just two years, which is in line with growth in the Nationwide House Price Index. This large increase in house prices boosts estimates of total wealth across the entire distribution of wealth. Previous research showed that once half of current net housing wealth was included as a retirement resource 12.6% of employees approaching retirement were estimated to have resources below the Pensions Commission’s definition of adequacy. We show that taking into account the high growth in house prices between 2002–03 and 2004–05 reduces this to 10.9%, and that it would fall by a further 1.2 percentage points if house prices were to grow by 2½% a year in real terms in the future

Estimating pension wealth of ELSA respondents

This paper explains the methodology used for calculating pensionwealth for all individuals in the first wave of the EnglishLongitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). We focus on the pensionwealth of individuals aged between 50 and the state pension age.Both state and private pension wealth has been calculated and eachhas been calculated both on the basis of immediate retirement in2002 and on the basis of retirement at the state pension age.Sensitivity analysis of our assumptions is also presented, whichshows that the distribution of pension wealth is sensitive to ourassumptions about the discount rate and contracting out historiesbut insensitive to assumptions about future earnings growth, futureannuity rates and future asset returns

Budget 2009: tightening the squeeze?

The outlook for the public finances appears significantly weaker than the Treasury predicted in the November 2008 Pre-Budget Report (PBR). This will have an important bearing on the two key tax and spending decisions that Chancellor Alistair Darling will have to take in his Budget statement on 22 April: whether to announce an additional short-term stimulus to help support the economy and whether to announce an additional long- term tightening to help repair the public finances. This Briefing Note sets out illustrative projections for the outlook for government borrowing and debt over the next few years. It then assesses by how much this or a future government might need to cut existing public spending plans and/or increase taxes to ensure that the outlook for public sector borrowing was no worse than that laid out in the PBR. The analysis in this Briefing Note builds on the detailed forecasts in the January 2009 IFS Green Budget. It does not re-estimate the Green Budget forecasts, but instead makes some broad-brush adjustments to them to reflect new information and analysis available since the PBR

Pension and saving policy

This Election Briefing Note aims to describe the key differences between the three main UK political parties on policies that might affect the ways in which individuals save and provide for the future, including the ways in which resources might be provided for retirement. Our main focus will be on policies that might affect future pensioners; IFS Election Briefing Note no. 11 explains how the different tax and benefit reform packages proposed by the different parties will affect people in the population in the short term, including current pensioners. We will also focus on areas in which the different parties have different policies

The value of teachers' pensions

As private sector employers have moved away from providing final salary defined benefit (DB) pensions to their employees, attention has increasingly focused on the public sector's continued provision of such pensions and the value of these pension promises to public sector employees. The estimated underlying liabilities of such plans have increased sharply in recent years, at least in part due to unanticipated increases in longevity. This has led to reforms of all the major public sector pension schemes, the net result of which has been to reduce the level of benefits offered by the schemes (predominantly to new, rather than existing members). This paper examines, in the context of the Teachers' Pension Scheme (TPS), how much the pension promises are worth and what effect the change in scheme rules has had on them. This paper also addresses a number of other issues that are important when valuing DB pension rights and their relation to overall remuneration. First, how increases in current pay feed through into pension values. Second, how the age profile of earnings affects the profile of pension accrual. Finally, how the value of pension rights in DB schemes compares to that in a stylised defined contribution (DC) scheme. The figures presented in this paper relate specifically to the composition of members and the specific scheme rules of the TPS. However, the issues raised apply equally to other DB schemes, both public and private sector

What is a public sector pension worth?

We measure accruals in defined benefit (DB) pension plans for public and private sector workers in Britain, using typical differences in scheme rules and sector-specific lifetime age-earnings profiles by sex and educational group. We show not just that coverage by DB pension plans is greater in the public sector, but that median pension accruals as a % of salary are almost 5% higher among DB-covered public sector workers than covered private sector workers. This is largely driven by earlier normal pension (retirement) ages. For workers of different ages in the two sectors, marginal accruals also vary as a result of differences in earnings profiles across the sectors. The differences in earnings profiles across sectors should induce caution in using calculated coefficients on wages from cross sections of data in order to estimate sectoral wage effects

The UK public finances: ready for recession?

Summary Neither the current Labour government nor the previous Conservative one can look back over their respective terms of office as periods of great success in fiscal management. Both started by strengthening their underlying budget balances for three years after taking office, but both then allowed them to drift steadily back into the red. This meant that they were already borrowing significant amounts when the onset of recession required them to borrow more. Labour is entering this recession with a similar structural budget deficit to the one that it inherited from the Conservatives, but with a smaller underlying debt. It remains to be seen whether the structural budget deficit will deteriorate as far under Labour as it did under the Conservatives, but debt is very likely to rise above the peak it recorded under the Conservatives (even without the impact of recent bank nationalisations and recapitalisations). Labour recorded a similar structural budget deficit in the year before this recession to that which the Conservatives recorded in the year before the last. However, the structural deficit appears to have deteriorated more sharply in the early phase of the downturn than it did under the Conservatives and as a result is set to be higher in the first year of recession than it was under the Conservatives. This largely reflects the particular impact of the credit crunch and falls in the stock market and housing market, rather than budget decisions. Labour is also going into the recession with a significantly higher level of debt than the Conservatives did. Turning to the international context, we are entering the current recession with one of the largest structural budget deficits in the industrial world and a debt level that may be among the smallest in the G7 but which is larger than that of most industrial countries. We have done less to reduce our structural budget deficit and less to reduce our debt than most other industrial countries since Labour came to office